Uçuş Hareketliliği ile Covid-19 Yayılım İlişkisi: Balkanlarda Bir Araştırma

Covid-19 virüsü ilk kez Çin’in Wuhan kentine ortaya çıkmış ve ardından dünya genelinde hızlı biryayılım göstermiştir. Salgın dünya genelinde benzeri görülmemiş bir kriz etkisi yaratırken, krizden en çoketkilenen sektörlerin başında havacılık sektörü gelmektedir. Havacılık endüstrisinin sağladığı insanhareketliliği Covid-19 virüsünün yayılması için bir tehdit olarak algılanmış ve söz konusu yayılımıengellemek için hükümetlerin aldığı ilk önlemler, karantina uygulamalarının yanı sıra, ulusal ve uluslararasıseyahat kısıtlamalarının getirilmesi yönünde olmuştur. Hükümetler tarafından uygulanan yasaklar vekısıtlamaların etkisiyle havacılık endüstrisi ciddi bir talep düşüşüyle karşı karşıya kalmıştır. Bu durumhavacılık endüstrisinde faaliyet gösteren işletmeler için büyük oranda gelir kaybına yol açmış ve havacılıkişletmeleri zor durumlar yaşamıştır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, uçuş hareketliliği ve Covid-19 virüsünün yayılımıarasındaki ilişkinin incelenmesidir. Çalışma kapsamında, dokuz Balkan ülkesinin her birinde ilk vakanıngörüldüğü tarihten itibaren 31 Aralık’a kadar gerçekleşen günlük uçuş trafiği ve Covid-19 vaka sayısıarasındaki ilişki, korelasyon analizi yöntemi kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Çalışmada gerçekleştirilenkorelasyon analizi için, Dünya Sağlık Örgütü (DSÖ) tarafından yayınlanan günlük vaka sayıları veEUROCONTROL tarafından yayınlanan günlük uçuş sayıları kullanılmıştır. Sırbistan, Karadağ ve Kosovauçuş ve vaka sayısı ile ilgili günlük verilere ulaşılamadığı için bu çalışmanın kapsamı dışında bırakılmıştır.Yapılan analiz sonucunda, uçuş hareketliliği ve Covid-19 yayılımı arasındaki ilişkinin ülkeler arasındafarklılık gösterildiği saptansa da genel olarak istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ancak çok zayıf bir ilişki bulunduğugörülmüştür.

The Relation Between Flight Mobility and Spread of Covid-19: A Study in the Balkan Countries

Covid-19 virus first appeared in Wuhan, China, and then spread rapidly across the world. Whilethe epidemic has created an unprecedented crisis effect worldwide, the aviation industry is one of theindustries most affected by the crisis. Human mobility provided by the aviation industry was perceived as athreat to the spread of the Covid-19 virus, and the first measures taken by governments to prevent this spreadwere in the direction of imposing national and international travel restrictions as well as quarantine practices.Due to the bans and restrictions imposed by governments, the aviation industry has faced a serious decline indemand. This situation has led to a significant loss of income for businesses operating in the aviation industryand aviation businesses have experienced difficult situations. The purpose of this study is to examine therelationship between flight mobility and the spread of the Covid-19 virus. Within the scope of the study, therelationship between daily flight traffic and the number of Covid-19 cases from the date of the first case toDecember 31 in each of the nine Balkan countries was examined using the correlation analysis method. Forthe correlation analysis performed in the study, the daily number of cases published by the World HealthOrganization (WHO) and the daily flight numbers published by EUROCONTROL were used. Serbia,Montenegro and Kosovo were excluded from the scope of this study as daily data on the number of flightsand cases were not available. As a result of the analysis, although it was determined that the relationshipbetween flight mobility and Covid-19 spread differs between countries, it was found that there was astatistically significant but very weak relationship in general.

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