Early Warning Signals From Global Financial Markets at the Beginning of Covid -19 Pandemic

The Covid-19 Pandemic pose health security risks all over the world and makes its effects felt in every field. The objective of this paper is to observe the response of the financial markets of countries with the highest global health security index (GHSI) when the pandemic cases started and to guide investors. The main areas of the index are prevention, detection, reporting, rapid response, health system, compliance with international norms and risk environment. Many indicators are monitored under these basic areas. The motivation point of the study is that comparing the financial markets of countries with the highest global health security index has never been investigated. The top 5 countries selected are as follows: The United States, The United Kingdom, The Netherlands, Australia and Canada. In the selection of the stock exchange, the most known indexes of the countries on a global scale and the highest trading volume are taken. The common transaction days are taken as a basis short period that starts on 28 February 2020 and ends on 15 May 2020. This study showing early warning signals from global financial markets will also be a guide for future studies and long-term analysis. Dumitrescu Hurlin Panel Causality Test applied to the data; the causality from death and case rates to stock market returns is investigated. Hidden causality is important in decision making. Investors should make international investments by thinking in detail about the assets in their portfolio. In the near future, the importance of hidden causality relations research and early warning signals that occur with the effect of financial contagion will increase

Covid-19 Salgını Başlangıcında Küresel Finansal Piyasalardan Erken Uyarı Sinyalleri

Covid-19 Pandemisi tüm Dünyada sağlık güvenliği riski oluşturmakta ve her alanda etkilerini hissettirmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Covid-19 pandemisi vakaları başladığında en yüksek küresel sağlık güvenlik endeksine (GHSI) sahip ülkelerin finansal piyasalarının tepkisini gözlemlemek ve yatırımcılara rehberlik etmektir. Endeksin temel alanları önleme, tespit, raporlama, hızlı karşılık verme, sağlık sistemi, uluslararası normlara uygunluk ve risk ortamıdır. Bu temel alanlar altında birçok gösterge izlenmektedir. Çalışmanın motivasyon noktası, en yüksek küresel sağlık güvenliği endeksine sahip ülkelerin finansal piyasaları karşılaştırmasının hiçbir zaman araştırılmamış olmasıdır. Seçilen ilk 5 ülke şu şekildedir: Amerika Birleşik Devletleri, Birleşik Krallık, Hollanda, Avustralya ve Kanada. Borsa seçiminde ise ülkelerin küresel ölçekte en bilinen ve işlem hacimleri en yüksek endeksleri alınmaktadır. Ülkeler için vaka başlangıçlarına göre ortak işlem günleri alınmakta olup 28 Şubat 2020'de başlayan ve 15 Mayıs 2020'de sona eren kısa vade ele alınır. Küresel finansal piyasalardan erken uyarı sinyallerini gösteren bu çalışma diğer yandan gelecekteki çalışmalar ve uzun vadeli analizler için bir rehber olacaktır. Dumitrescu Hurlin Panel Nedensellik Testi uygulanan verilerde; ölüm ve vaka oranlarından borsa getirilerine doğru nedensellik araştırılmaktadır. Salgının yatırım davranışlarını değiştireceği beklenmektedir. Saklı kalmış nedensellikler karar vermede önemlidir. Yatırımcılar portföylerindeki varlıklar üzerinde detaylı düşünerek uluslararası yatırım yapmalıdır. Yakın gelecekte ise finansal bulaşma etkisiyle meydana gelen saklı nedensellik ilişkileri araştırmaları ve erken uyarı sinyallerinin önemi artacaktır

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