Terörizmin Finansal Piyasalar Üzerindeki Yansımalarının Ardl Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı ile İncelenmesi: 1974-2017 Dönemi Türk Bankacılık Sektörü Üzerine Bir Uygulama

Terör olaylarının fazlaca görüldüğü ülkelerde olayların yaşandığı dönem ve sonrasında ekonomik yapı etkilenebilmektedir. Bu durum pek çok ülke ekonomisinde olumsuz sonuçlar ortaya koyarken bazılarında pozitif yönde etki de gösterebilmektedir. Ülkelerin gelişmişlik düzeyleri, ekonomilerinin kırılganlığı, terörle ne kadar süredir karşı karşıya olduğu gibi etkenler sonucu farklılaştırabilmektedir.Literatürdeterör olaylarının bankacılık sistemi üzerindeki etkisini inceleyen çalışma sayısı oldukça sınırlıdır. Ekonomikyapı içinde önemli bir yere sahip olan bankalar ve ülke ekonomisine sundukları krediler ile terör olayları arasındaki ilişkinin anlamlı olup olmadığı bu noktada merak konusu olmuştur. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye için terör olaylarının özel sektöre verilen banka kredileri üzerindeki etkisinin incelenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. 1974-2017 dönemi verilerinin kullanıldığı çalışmada ARDL Sınır Testi yaklaşımı çerçevesinde analizler yapılmıştır. Yapılan sınır testi analizi sonucunda değişkenler arasında eş bütünleşme ilişkisinin olduğu belirlenmiştir. Uzun dönemde terör olayları ile özel sektöre verilen banka kredileri arasında negatif yönlü ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişki bulunmuştur. Bir diğer ifade ile terörolaylarındaki artış özel sektör kredilerinin GSYH’ya oranında azalış meydana getirmektedir. Değişkenler arasındaki kısa dönem eş bütünleşme ilişkisi Hata Düzeltme Modeli çerçevesinde ele alınmış ve hata düzeltme terimi istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve negatif olarak bulunmuştur. CUSUM testleri sonucunda katsayıların uzun dönemde istikrarlı olduğu görülmüştür. Bulgular konu üzerinde yapılan sınırlı sayıdaki çalışma sonuçları ile de uyumludur.

The Examination of theReflections of Terrorism on Financial Markets with ARDLBound Test Approach: An Application on Turkish Banking Sector in the Period of 1974-2017

In countries where terrorist incidents are prevalent, the economic structure may be affected during and after the events. While this situation has negative results in the economies of many countries, it may also have a positive impactin some. The development levels of the countries, the fragility of their economies, and how long they have been facing terrorism may differ results. There are a limited number of studies in the literature that examine the effects of terrorist incidents on the economic structure. At this point, it is a matter of curiosity whether the relationship between banks, which have an important place in the economic structure,and the loans they offer to the country's economy and terrorist incidents. In this study, it is aimed to investigate the impactsof terrorist incidents on bank credits to the private sector for Turkey. Analyzes were made within the framework of ARDL Bound Test Approach using data from 1974-2017 period. As a result of the bound test, it was determined that there is a cointegration relationship between the variables. In the long term, a negative and statistically meaningfulrelationship was found between terrorist incidents and private sector bank credits. In other words, the increase in terrorist incidents leads to a decrease in the ratio of the private sector credits to gross domestic product (GDP). The short term cointegration relationship between the variables was considered within the framework of the Error Correction Model and the term error correction was found to be statistically meaningfuland negative. CUSUM tests showed that the coefficients were stable in the long run. These findings are in linewith the results of a limited number of studies on the subject in literature.

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Turkish Studies - Economics, Finance, Politics-Cover

ISSN: 2667-5625
Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 4 Sayı
Başlangıç: 2006
Yayıncı: ASOS Eğitim Bilişim Danışmanlık Otomasyon Yayıncılık Reklam Sanayi ve Ticaret LTD ŞTİ