AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL KUZNETS CURVE UNDER STRUCTURAL BREAKS: THE EXAMPLE OF TURKEY
This paper investigates the presence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) in Turkey for the period between 1960 and 2014. Firstly, all variables were identified to be stationary at l(1) level in the study. The Maki (2012) cointegration test that allows structural breaks was used. The elasticity coefficients of the variables and the break years were estimated by FMOLS. The EKC hypothesis suggests that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between emissions and economic growth. The EKC hypothesis is based on the cointegration relationship between the CO2 emissions per capita, GDP per capita and the square of GDP per capita. According to the cointegration analysis, there is a long-term relationship between the variables. FMOLS results confirmed the reliability of long-term results. The empirical results indicate an inverted U-shaped relationship between CO2 emissions and economic growth in Turkey, thus confirming the validity of the EKC hypothesis. The turnaround point was found to be $3640.95. Energy obtained from fossil fuels is an important factor in environmental pollution. Policy makers need to be more interested in renewable and clean energy sources rather than fossil fuels to be able to meet the energy requirements. The interest of local and foreign investors in this area should be increased. The investments should increase, particularly through the help of incentives to be provided by the government. These incentives include the guarantee for the purchase of energy at a certain value, assignment of space for investors, the creation of technological infrastructures, and so on. Other policy recommendations based on the theoretical and empirical results are provided in the final section of the study.
ÇEVRESEL KUZNETS EĞRİSİNİN YAPISAL KIRILMALAR ALTINDA AMPİRİK ANALİZİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ
Bu makale, 1960 ile 2014 dönemi için Türkiye'deki Cevresel Kuznets Eğrisinin (EKC) varlığını araştırmaktadır. Çalışmada öncelikle tüm değişkenlerin I(1) mertebede durağan oldukları tespit edilmiştir. Maki (2012) yapısal kırılmaya izin veren eşbütünleşme testi kullanılmıştır. FMOLS ile değişkenlerin ve kırılma tarihlerinin esneklik katsayıları tahmin edilmiştir. EKC hipotezi, emisyonlar ile ekonomik büyüme arasında ters U şeklinde bir ilişki olduğunu öne sürmektektedir. Kişi başı CO2 emisyonu, kişi başı GSYİH ve kişi başı GSYİH’nın karesi arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi EKC hipotezinin temelini oluşturmaktadır. Eşbütünleşme analizine göre değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki vardır. FMOLS sonuçları uzun dönem sonuçların güvenilirliğini onaylamıştır. Ampirik sonuçlar Türkiye’de CO2 emisyonu ile ekonomik büyüme arasında ters U şekilli ilişki olduğunu, böylece EKC hipotezinin geçerliliğini doğrulamaktadır. Geri dönüşüm noktasının 3640,95$ olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Fosil yakıtlardan elde edilen enerji, çevresel kirlenmede önemli bir etkendir. Politika yapıcıların enerjiye olan ihtiyacı karşılayabilmek için, fosil yakıtlar yerine yenilenebilir ve temiz enerji kaynaklarına ilgisini artırmalıdır. Yerel ve yabancı yatırımcıların bu sektöre olan ilgisinin artırılması gerekmektedir. Özellikle devletin uygulayacağı teşvikler ile yatırımlar artacaktır. Bu teşvikler arasında, enerjinin belli bir değerden alım garantisi, yatırımcılara yer tahsili, teknolojik alt yapıların oluşturulması vb. sayılabilir. Teorik ve ampirik sonuçların diğer politika önerileri çalışmanın sonunda önerilmiştir.
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- ISSN: 2667-5625
- Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 4 Sayı
- Başlangıç: 2006
- Yayıncı: ASOS Eğitim Bilişim Danışmanlık Otomasyon Yayıncılık Reklam Sanayi ve Ticaret LTD ŞTİ
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