Müberra ERDOĞAN, Kadri YUREKLI, Mehmet Murat CÖMERT

Comparison of the Observed Rainfall with Rainfall Estimated by CLIGEN Climate Model in terms of Drought Analysis

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used to determine dry and humid periods according to the cumulative probability method at different time scales. . In this study, the rainfall data between the years of 1980-2018 belonging to of Kayseri Meteorology Station was simulated by CLIGEN stochastic climatic data generator. SPI indices calculated by using observed and simulated precipitation were evaluated with the statistical methods at the time scales of 3-, 6-, 9- and 12- months. The SPI values of 3-, 6-, 9- and 12- month which are observed and simulated with CLIGEN are close to each other and the performance of the model is very high in calculating the SPI values of these time series. However, as the time period increased, the model's representative ability decreased.

CLIGEN İklim Modeli ile Tahmin Edilen Yağmur ile Gözlenen Yağmurun Kuraklık Analizi Açısından Karşılaştırılması

Standart Yağış İndeksi (SYİ) farklı zaman ölçeklerinde, kümülatif olasılık yöntemine göre kurak ve nemli periyodları belirlemek amacıyla uygulanan bir yöntemdir. Bu çalışmada, Kayseri iline ait 1980-2018 yılları arasındaki yağmur verisi CLIGEN iklim modeli ile simüle edilmiştir ve daha sonra her iki veri seti SYİ yöntemine göre 3-, 6-, 9- ve 12- aylık kuraklık ve nemlilik şiddetini ifade eden indeks değerleri elde edilmiştir. Hem gözlenen hem de simüle edilen SPI değerleri karşılaştırılmıştır. 3-, 6-, 9- ve 12- aylık SPI değerleri birbirine yakın olup, modelin bu zaman serilerinin SPI değerlerini hesaplamada performansı oldukça yüksektir. Ancak zaman aralığı arttıkça modelin temsil yeteneği düşüş göstermektedir.

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