Mekânsal otokorelasyon ve kümeleme analizi yaklaşımı ile Göksu Çayı Havzası’nın (Sakarya Nehri Havzası) bütünleşik ve sürdürülebilir havza yönetim modeli

Doğal ve beşeri ortam koşullarının yoğun etkileşim halinde olduğu havzalarda birçok kapsamdaçeşitli modellerle yönetim çalışmaları uygulanmaktadır. Bu araştırmanın amacı, coğrafi çeşitliliği,etkileşimleri ve potansiyel riskleri barındıran Göksu Çayı Havzası’nın farklı değişkenler üzerindenmekânsal otokorelasyon ve kümeleme analizine dayalı havza yönetim modelinin oluşturulmasıdır.Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemlerinin (CBS) etkin kullanıldığı çalışmada, deterministik, kantitatif,korelasyon ve dağılış analizi yöntemleriyle çok basamaklı sistematik oluşturulmuştur. Havzanınbütün coğrafi unsurlarını, etkileşimleri, doğal dinamik işleyiş yapısını ortaya koymak ve ilişkiselolarak kümelenme dağılışını oluşturmak için birçok parametrenin analizleri ile dört ana değişken(alt model) üretilmiştir. Ana değişkenler, jeomorfolojik uygunluk-elverişlilik, yağış akış, çoklu-riskve arazi kullanım modellerinden oluşur. Her bir model karşılıklı olarak mekansal korelasyona tabitutulmuş ve havzanın kümeleme analizi dağılış verisi üretilmiştir. Beş farklı kümenin tespit edildiğiveri, sorun-risk potansiyeli ve sürdürülebilir-uygun kullanım potansiyeli açısından da analizedilmiştir. Daha sonra dağılış verisi, Lokal Moran’s I-Anselin testi ve Getis-Ord Gİ istatistiği ile anlamlılıkve kümelenme açısından test edilmiştir. Analizlerden, havzanın yüksek çerçevesini oluşturansahaların sürdürülebilir-uygun kullanım potansiyeline sahip kümelenme gösterdiği, İnegölOvası, Yenişehir kuzeyi ve Göksu Vadisi’nde sorun-risk potansiyeli yüksek kümelenmenin olduğutespit edilmiştir. Havzada sürdürülebilirliğin sağlanması için, ekolojik sahaların korunması, sel,taşkın, erozyon, heyelan tedbirlerin arttırılması, akarsulardaki su kalitesinin kontrol edilmesi veantropojenik baskı yoğunlaşmasının daha uygun alanlara yönlendirilmesi gerekmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Havza Yönetim Modeli, Kümeleme Analizi, Sürdürülebilirlik, Mekânsal Oto-Korelasyon

Integrated and sustainable watershed management model of Göksu River Basin (Sakarya River Basin) with spatial autocorrelation and cluster analysis approach

In the basins where natural and human environmental conditions are in intense interaction,management studies are carried out with various models in many contexts. In this study, itis aimed to create a watershed management model based on spatial auto correlation andclustering analysis over different variables of the Göksu River Basin, which has geographicaldiversity, interactions and potential risks. In the study, in which Geographical InformationSystems (GIS) was used effectively, a multi-step system was created with deterministic, quantitative,correlation and distribution analysis methods. Four main variables (sub-models) wereproduced by analyzing many parameters in order to reveal all the geographical elements,interactions, natural dynamic functioning of the basin and to establish the cluster distributionas relation. The main variables consist of the geomorphological suitability-availability model,the precipitation runoff model, the multi-risk model, and the land use model. Each model wassubjected to spatial correlation and cluster analysis distribution data of the basin were produced.The data, in which 5 different clusters were identified, were also analyzed in terms ofproblem-risk potential and sustainable-appropriate use potential. Then, the distribution datawas tested for significance and clustering with the Local Moran’s I-Anselin test and the Getis-Ord GI statistic. From the analyzes, it has been determined that the areas forming the highframe of the basin show a cluster with sustainable-appropriate use potential, and there is acluster with high problem-risk potential in İnegöl Plain, north of Yenişehir and Göksu Valley. Inorder to ensure sustainability in the basin, it is necessary to protect ecological areas, increaseflood, overflow, erosion, landslide measures, control water quality in streams and direct anthropogenicpressure concentration to more suitable areas.

Keywords:

Model of Wtarershed Management, Cluster Analysis, Sustainability, Spatial Auto-Correlation,

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