Sinyalize kavşaklarda gecikme tahmininin matematiksel modellenmesi II: Önerilen gecikme modelinin değişen zaman ve akım koşullarına bağlı çözümlemesi

Bu makalenin amacı, bir önceki makalede geliştirilen gecikme modelinin TRAF-NETSIM benzetim programı yardımı ile değişen, akım ve zaman koşullarına bağlı olarak ve özellikle de aşırı doygun trafik akımlarını da göz önüne alarak güvenirliliğini araştırmak ve modeli geçerli kılmaktır. Bu amacı başarmak ve gecikme modelini test edebilmek için benzetim tekniğine dayanan bir çalışma yapılmış ve değişik trafik ve zaman koşullarını yansıtması için 48 adet farklı senaryo tasarlanmıştır. Benzetim modelinden elde edilen gecikme tahminleri ile geliştirilen modelden elde edilen gecikme tahminleri doğrusal regresyon çözümlemesi kullanılarak istatistiksel olarak karşılaştırılmıştır. Çözümleme sonuçları modelden ve simülasyondan elde edilen gecikme tahminlerinin birbirine yakın olduğunu göstermiştir.

Mathematical modeling of delay estimation at signalized intersections II: The analysis of proposed delay model dependent on variable demand and time conditions

The objective of this study is to calibrate and verify the delay model developed in the accompanying paper using TRAF-NETSIM simulation program. The model is time-dependent for signalized intersections suitable for variable demand and time conditions including oversaturated conditions. In the calibration and verification of the model, a simulation study was performed to produce the various traffic and time conditions using 48 different scenarios. The delays obtained from the simulations and the proposed model were statistically compared using linear regression analysis. The results indicated a good agreement between delays generated by the simulations and delays estimated by the proposed model.

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