Üçüz Açıklar Hipotezinin Geçerliliğinin Analizi: Panel Veri Yaklaşımı

Bütçe açığı, cari işlemler açığı ve tasarruf açığı arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini inceleyen hipotez literatürde üçüz açıklar hipotezi olarak bilinmektedir. Üçüz açıklar hipotezinin geçerliliği, hipotez ortaya konduğu günden bu yana birçok ekonometrik araştırmanın konusu olmuştur ve geçerliliği farklı dönemlerde, farklı ülkeler için, farklı yöntemlerle incelenmiştir. Bu çalışmada, üçüz açıklar hipotezinin geçerliliği panel veri yöntemleri ile analiz edilmiştir. İlk olarak incelenecek serilerin durağanlıklarını analiz etmek amacıyla 2005 yılında geliştirilen yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testlerinden olan Im, Lee ve Tieslau testi uygulanarak serilerin durağanlık mertebeleri belirlenmiştir. Durağan serilerle panel nedensellik analizine geçmeden önce panel veride analiz edilen birimlerin homojenliği Swamy Homojenlik testi ile incelenmiştir. Test sonucuna göre, veri setinin heterojen olduğu belirlenmiştir. Bu nedenle, heterojen panel veri için geliştirilen ve mantığı Granger nedensellik analizine dayanan Dumitrescu ve Hurlin nedensellik analizi uygulanarak üçüz açıklar hipotezinin geçerliliği incelenmiştir. Nedensellik analizi sonucunda üçüz açıklar hipotezinin incelenen ülkeler için incelenen dönemde geçerli olduğu belirlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Üçüz açıklar hipotezi, panel veri analizi, panel veri yapısal kırılmalı birim kök analizi, Swamy homojenlik testi, heterojen panel veri nedensellik analizi

Analysis of the Validity of the Triple Deficit Hypothesis: Panel Data Approach

The hypothesis examining the causality relationship between budget deficit, current account deficit and saving deficit is known as triple deficit hypothesis in the literature. The validity of the triplet deficit hypothesis has been the subject of many econometric studies and its validity has been analyzed in different time periods, for different countries, by applying different methods. In this study, the validity of the triple deficit hypothesis was analyzed with panel data methods. First, Im, Lee and Tieslau test were used to determine the stationarity of the series. This test developed in 2005 in order to analyze the stationarity of the series with one and two structural breaks. The homogeneity of the units analyzed in the panel data was examined by Swamy test before moving to panel causality analysis with stationary series. According to the information obtained from the test result, heterogeneous data set was analyzed. According to the test results, the validity of the triple deficit hypothesis was investigated by Dumitrescu and Hurlin causality analysis, which was developed for heterogeneous panel data and whose logic was based on Granger causality analysis. According to the information obtained from causality analysis, the triple deficit hypothesis was found to be valid for the analyzed countries in the time period analyzed.

Keywords:

Triple deficit hypothesis, panel data analysis, unit-root analysis with structural break in panel data, Swamy homogeneity test, causality analysis in heterogeneous panel data,

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