Finansal İstikrarsızlık ve Dış Borç: Türkiye Örneği

Bu makale finansal istikrarsızlık teorisinin dış borç problemine uygulamasını ele almaktadır. Çalışmada ilk olarak kapitalizmin istikrarsızlık teorilerine değinilmiş daha sonra finansal istikrarsızlık teorisi ve arkasındaki mantık ortaya çıkarılmaya çalışılmıştır. Son bölümde Türkiye ekonomisinde dış borcun gerçekten istikrarsızlandırıcı bir unsur olup olmadığını göstermek için Türkiye ile ilgili veriler ve ekonometrik analizler sunulmuştur. Ekonometrik analiz sonuçlarına göre yüksek borç stokunun Türkiye’de enflasyona neden olduğu söylenebilir. Yürütülen tahmin istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olmadığı için yüksek dış borç stokunun Türkiye’de büyümeyi yavaşlattığını söylemek mümkün değildir.

This paper deals with the application of the financial instability theory to the problem of external debt. Firstly, it surveys different thought on the theories of instability of capitalism. Later, it presents the theories of instability and their logic behind. Next, it links vicious cycles of external debt problems to the financial instability process. Last section presents econometric analysis and data on Turkey in order to show that external debt is in fact a financially instabilizing factor in the Turkish economy. According to econometric analysis, the high level of external debt can be surely said to lead inflationary process in Turkey. On the other hand, it is not possible to say that the high level of external debt stock leads to growth slowdown in Turkey because the estimation carried out is not statistically significant.

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