THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND GROWTH IN EMERGING MARKETS BY PANEL QUANTILE REGRESSION: EVIDENCE FROM VISTA COUNTRIES

Enerji tüketimi ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi küresel ekonomi için önemli bir konudur. Çoğu araştırmacı, farklı makro ekonomik veriler kullanarak bu ilişki üzerine çalışmış ve zaman serisi analizleri, panel veri analizleri gibi yöntemler kullanmıştır. Çalışmalarda, OECD, Dünya Bankası veya diğer ekonomik kuruluşlar tarafından gruplandırılmış farklı ülke grupları üzerinde araştırmalar gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bu çalışmanın amacı Vietnam,Endonezya, Güney Afrika, Türkiye ve Arjantin ülkelerinden oluşan VISTA grubunda, enerji tüketimi ve ekonomik gelişme arasındaki ilişkiyi panel kantil regresyon tekniği ile incelemektir.Tahminler 1985 - 2013 yılları arasındaki yıllık veriler kullanılarak yapılmıştır. Oluşturulan modelde bağımlı değişken, Kişi Başına GSYİH Büyümesi olarak seçilirken; bağımsız değişkenler, Petrol Tüketimi, Kömür Tüketimi, Hidroelektrik Tüketimi ve Birincil Enerji Tüketimi verilerinin logaritmaları olarak belirlenmiştir. Analiz

GELİŞMEKTE OLAN PİYASALARDA ENERJİ TÜKETİMİ VE BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİNİN PANEL KANTİL REGRESYON İLE İNCELENMESİ: VISTA ÜLKELERİ ÖRNEĞİ

Energy consumption and economic growth relationship is an important topic for global economy. Most of researchers investigated this relationship with different methods on different macro-economic data. These methods are including not only time-series econometrics but also panel data analysis. Moreover, they analyzed different countries or country groups classified by OECD, World Bank or any other economic organizations. The aim of study is the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth with panel quantile regression method on VISTA countries (Vietnam, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey and Argentina). Estimations are made annually for 1985 – 2013 period. Dependent variable is GDP per capita growth and independent variables are logarithmic energy consumption indicators which are Oil Consumption, Coal Consumption, Hydroelectricity Consumption and Primary Energy Consumption. Results show that the effects of logarithmic energy consumption variables are changing on economic growth for different quantiles (τ = 0.25; 0.50; 0.75; 0.90). In conclusion, effect of oil consumption on economic growth is falling at high quantiles of GDP growth. In contrast, effect of hydroelectricity consumption and primary energy consumption on economic growth is rising at high quantiles. But, there is not a statistical significant effect of coal consumption on economic growth at any quantile

PDF

___

Abrevaya, J. and C. M. Dahl (2008). The effects of birth inputs on birthweight: Evidence from quantile estimation on panel data. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 26, 379–97.
Al-Iriani, M. A. (2006). Energy-GDP relationship revisited: An example from GCC countries using panel causality. Energy Policy 34, 3342-3350.
Altınay, G., & Karagol, E. (2004). Structural Break, Unit Root, and The Causality between Energy Consumption and GDP in Turkey, Energy Economics, 26, pp.985-994.
Apergis, N., Payne, J.E. (2011). The renewable energy consumption-growth nexus in Central America. Applied Energy, 88: 343-347.
Canay, I. A. (2011). A Simple Approach to Quantile Regression for Panel Data, Econometrics Journal, volume 14, pp. 368–386. doi: 10.1111/j.1368- 423X.2011.00349.x
Campo. J. and Sarmiento, V. (2013). The Relationship between Energy Consumption and GDP: Evidence from a Panel Cointegration of 10 Latin American Countries. Latin American Journal of Economics - formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Vol. 50, No. 2, pp. 233 - 255.
Galvao, A. (2008). Quantile regression for dynamic panel data with fixed effects. Working paper, University of Illinois. Urbana-Champaign.
Geraci, M. and M. Bottai (2007). Quantile regression for longitudinal data using the asymmetric laplace distribution. Biostatistics, 8, 140–54.
Guloglu, B., Kangalli Uyar, S. G. and Uyar, U. (2016). Dynamic Quantile Panel Data Analysis of Stock Returns Predictability, International Journal of Economics and Finance, 8, No 2, 115- 126. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v8n2p115
Huang, N.H., Hwang, M.J. and Yang, C.W. (2008). “Causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP growth revisited: A dynamic panel data approach”, Ecological Economics, Vol: 67, Issue: 1, pp. 41-54.
Koenker, R. (2004). Quantile regression for longitudinal data. Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 91, 74–89.
Koenker, R (2011). Quantile Regression LSE Short Course, CEMMAP and University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, 16-17 May 2011.
Lamarche, C. (2010). Robust penalized quantile regression estimation for panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 157, 396–408.
Lee, C.C., 2005. Energy consumption and GDP in developing countries: a cointegrated panel analysis. Energy Economics, 27, 415–427.
Lise, W., & Montfort, K.V. (2007). Energy Consumption and GDP in Turkey: Is There a Cointegration Relationship? Energy Economics, 29, pp.1166-1178.
Mozumder, P., Marathe, A.(2007). “Causality relationship between electricity consumption and GDP in Bangladesh”, Energy policy 35 (1), 395-402
Narayan, PK. and Smyth, R. (2008) Energy consumption and real GDP in G7 countries: New evidence from panel cointegration with structural breaks, Energy Economics, 30, 2331-41.
Nindi, G.A. and Odhiambo, N.M. (2014). Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Mozambique: An Emprical Investigation, Environmental Economics, Vol:5, No:4, pp. 83-92.
Odhiambo N.M. (2009). Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Tanzania: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach, Energy Policy, Vol: 37, No: 2, pp. 617-22.
Oh, W., & Lee, K. (2004). Causal Relationship between Energy Consumption and GDP Revisited: The Case of Korea 1970-1999, Energy Economics, 26, pp.51-59.
Rosen, A. (2009). Set identification via quantile restrictions in short panels. Working paper, University College, London.
Soytas, U., Sari, R., 2003. Energy consumption and GDP: causality relationship in G7 countries and emerging markets. Energy Economics, 25, 33–37.
Yang, HY. (2000). A note on the causal relationship between energy and GDP in Taiwan. Energy Economics, 22: 309-17.
Zhang, X., Cheng, X. (2009). Energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in China, Ecological Economics, 68, 2706-2712.
BPS (2014). BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2014 Report. http://www.bp.com/statisticalreview