Küresel Dengesizlikler: 1996-2008

Küresel dengesizlikler ülkelerin göreli büyük boyutlardaki cari açık ya da fazlalarını ifade etmektedir. ABD’nin 2000’lerin ortalarında rekor seviyelere ulaşan cari açıkları, Çin ve petrol ihracatçısı ülkeler başta olmak üzere gelişmekte olan ülkelerin fazlaları ile karşılanmıştır. Böylece sermaye ilk kez çevreden merkeze doğru hareket etmiştir. Çalışmada küresel dengesizliklerin genişlemeye başlayıp daha önce görülmemiş düzeylere ulaştığı 1996-2008 yılları arasındaki dönem değerlendirilmektedir. Küresel dengesizliklerin gelişimi, özellikle ABD ekonomisinde yaşanan gelişmeler çerçevesinde ele alınmaktadır. Ayrıca bu dönemde küresel dengesizlikleri yapısal nedenlerle açıklamaya çalışan temel yaklaşımlara yer verilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Küresel Dengesizlikler, Tasarruf-Yatırım Dengesi, Cari İşlemler Dengesi

Global Imbalances: 1996-2008

Global Imbalances refer to relatively large current account deficits or surpluses of the countries. The US current account deficits that have reached record high levels in the mid-2000s, have been offset by emerging countries, particularly by China and oil exporters. Thus, capital has flowed from the periphery to the core for the first time. The paper reviews the 1996-2008 era in which global imbalances have started to widen and reached unprecedented levels. Evolution of global imbalances is assessed, particularly within the scope of developments in US economy. Furthermore the paper surveys basic approaches attempt to explain global imbalance in the era, with structural reasons.

Keywords:

Global Imbalances, Saving-Investment Balance, Current Account Balance,

PDF

___

Barbosa-Filho, N., Rada, C., Taylor, L., & Zamparelli, L. (2006). Fiscal, Foreign, and Private Net Borrowing: Widely Accepted Theories Don't Closely Fit the Facts. in Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting, ANPEC.
Bernanke, B.S. (2005). The Global Saving Glut and the U.S. Current Account Deficit. The Sandridge Lecture. Virginia Association of Economics, Richmond, VA., Mart.
Blanchard, O. & Milesi-Ferretti, G.M. (2009). Global Imbalances: In Midstream?. IMF Staff Position Note, SPN/09/29, Aralık.
Bracke T, Bussière, M., Fidora, M., & Straub, R. (2010). A Framework for Assessing Global Imbalances. World Econ, 33(9), 1140–1174, doi:10.1111/j.1467-9701.2010.01266.x.
Brenner, R. (2007). Ekonomide Hızlı Büyüme ve Balon: Dünya Ekonomisinde ABD’nin Yeri. Çeviren: B. Akalın. İstanbul: İletişim Yayınları.
Caballero, R.J. (2006). On the Macroeconomics of Asset Shortages. NBER Working Paper, No: 12753, Aralık.
Chinn, M.D. (2013). Global Imbalances. Gerard Caprio (ed.) içinde, The Evidence and Impact of Financial Globalization, Vol. 3, s. 67-79. Oxford: Elsevier Inc.
Dooley, M.P., Folkerts-Landau, D., & Garber, P. (2003). An Essay on the Revised Bretton Woods System. NBER Working Paper, 9971, Eylül.
Dooley, M.P., Folkerts-Landau, D., & Garber, P. (2004a). The US Current Account Deficit: Collateral for a Total Return Swap. Global Markets Research, Deutsche Bank, Ağustos.
Dooley, M.P., Folkerts-Landau, D., & Garber, P. (2004b). Direct Investment, Rising Real Wages and the Absorption of Excess Labor in the Periphery. NBER Working Paper, 10626, Temmuz.
Dooley, M.P., Folkerts-Landau, D., & Garber, P. (2014). The Revived Bretton Woods System's First Decade. NBER Working Paper, 20454, Eylül.
Dos Santos, C. H., & Macedo e Silva, A. C. (2010). Revisiting ‘New Cambridge’: The Three Financial Balances in a General Stock-flow Consistent Applied Modeling Strategy. Working Paper, No: 594, Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, Mayıs.
Hausmann, R., & Sturzenegger, F. (2005). U.S. and Global Imbalances: Can Dark Matter Prevent a Big Bang?. Working Paper, No: 124, Center for International Development, Kasım.
Hausmann, R., & Sturzenegger, F. (2006). Global Imbalances or Bad Accounting? The Missing Dark Matter in the Wealth of Nations. Working Paper, No: 124, Center for International Development, Kasım.
Kregel, J.A. (2001). Why Advanced Countries Should Address Global Economic Imbalances. J. J. Teunissen (ed.) içinde, New Challenges of Crisis Prevention: Addressing Economic Imbalances in the North and Boom-Bust Cycles in the South, 1. bölüm, sf. 23-39, Fondad.
Lardy, N.R. (2008). Financial Repression in China. Policy Brief, No: 08-8, Peterson Institude for International Economics, Eylül.
Mann, C.L. (2004). Managing Exchange Rates: Achievement of Global Re-balancing or Evidence of Global Co-dependency?: The United States and Its Trading Partners Have Serious Vested Interests in the Status Quo. Business Economics, Temmuz.
Palley, T.I. (2014). The Theory of Global Imbalances: Mainstream Economics vs. Structural Keynesianism. Retrieved November 26, 2016 (da indirildi) from the World Wide Web: http://www.thomaspalley.com/docs/research/theory_of_global_imbalances.pdf.
Roubini, N., & Mihm, S. (2012). Kriz Ekonomisi: Dünya Ekonomisinin Çöküşü ve Geleceği. Çeviren: Işıl Tezcan. İstanbul: Pegasus Yayınları.
Servén L. & Nguyen, H. (2013). Global Imbalances: Origins and Prospects. World Bank Research Observer, Şubat, doi:10.1093/wbro/lkt002.
Shaikh, A. (2012). Three Balances and Twin Deficits: Godley versus Ruggles and Ruggles. D. B. Papadimitriou & G. Zezza (ed.) içinden, Contributions in Stock-flow Modeling Essays in Honor of Wynne Godley, 6. bölüm, sf. 125-136, Palgrave Macmillan.
Wolf, M. (2002, Şubat 26). An Unsustainable Black Hole: the US Current Account Deficit Cannot Grow Indefinitely Without Undermining the Dollar's Astonishing Strength. Financial Times.
Wolf, M. (2012, Temmuz 19). The Balance Sheet Recession in the US. Financial Times.