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Türkiye'de doğrudan yatırımların belirleyicileri üzerine bir analiz : CCC-MGARCH modeli ile tahmin

Doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, 1970’li ve 1980’li yıllarda gelişmiş ekonomiler arasında şekillenirken, 1990’lı yıllardan itibaren gelişmekte olan ekonomilere yönelmeye başlamıştır. Gelişmekte olan bir ekonomi olarak Türkiye de artan bu yatırımlardan payını almıştır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye ekonomisinde doğrudan yabancı yatırımların belirleyicilerini, iten (push) ve çeken (pull) faktörler yaklaşımı ile incelemektir. Çalışma 1992.01-2008.03 dönemini kapsamaktadır. CCC-MGARCH modeli kullanılarak, sabit koşullu korelayon katsayıları hem tüm dönem, hem de 2002 sonrası alt dönem için elde edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre her iki dönem için, yabancı yatırımları çeken faktörler, iten faktörlere göre daha etkindir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

ekonomik analizler, Türkiye

An analysis of the determinants of foreing direct invesment in Turkey : An estimation with CCC-MGARCH model

While the foreign direct invesment has surged considerably between developed countries in 1970s and 1980s, it has gone towards developing countries from 1990s. As a developing country, Turkish economy has taken their share. This study examines the determinants of foreign direct invesment into Turkey in the traditional 'push-pull' factors approach. The montly data in between 1992.01-2008.03. The CCC-MGARCH model has been employed. The constant conditional correlations have been carried out for all period and the sub-period 2002.01-2008.03. The empirical results suggests that pull factors are more effective than push factors for two periods.

Keywords:

economic analysis, Turkey,

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