An assessment of trade and investment flows between Turkey and the European Union : Perspectives on future political integration

Son üç onyıl Türkiye'nin dünya ekonomisiyle bütünleşmesinde önemli bir derinleşmeye sahne olmuş, bu derinleşme Türkiye'nin AB ile ikili ilişkilerine de yansımıştır. AB'ye katılımın yol açtığı siyasal meydan okuma, Türkiye ekonomisinde yapısal değişmeleri özendiren önemli bir kaymaya ve toplumun böyle bir dönüşüme ilgisinin artmasına yol açmıştır. Uluslararası ticaretin ve doğrudan yatırımların gelişmesi söz konusu amaçlara ulaşma çabasının sonucudur. Bununla birlikte, özellikle Merkezi ve Doğu Avrupa ülkelerinin eriştiği düzeyle karşılaştırıldığında, Türkiye'nin AB ile ve genelde OECD'nin en gelişmiş ülkeleriyle daha yakm ticari ve sınai ilişkilere girebilmesi için hâlâ büyük imkanlar mevcuttur. Bu araştırmada panel verilerin ekonometrik tanımlanması (gravite modeli) kullanılarak Türkiye ihracatı ve Türkiye'ye doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişlerinin temel açıklayıcı değişkenleri belirlenmeye çalışılmıştır. Sonuçlar, söz konusu iki yönlü akımların temel belirleyicileri arasında işgücü maliyeti farklılıkları ve ortak piyasa büyüklüğünün yer aldığını göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

yatırım

Türkiye ile AB arasındaki ticaret ve yatırım akımlarının değerlendirilmesi : Gelecekteki bir siyasal bütünleşmenin perspektifleri

The last three decades have witnessed a deep change in Turkish economic integration with the world economy, and have also caused an impact in the bilateral relationship with the European Union. The political challenge of accession to the European Union has demanded an important shift in order to favour structural changes in the Turkish economy and the involvement of society in those transformations. The growth in foreign trade and direct investment figures is a consequence of trying to accomplish these objectives. However, especially in comparison to the level attained by Central and Eastern European countries, there are still outstanding possibilities for a closer commercial and industrial connection with the European Union and in general with the most developed OECD countries. In this research we use a panel data econometric specification, based on the gravity model, in order to identify the main determinants of Turkish exports and foreign direct investment inflows. Results reveal that labour cost differences and joint market size are among the main factors behind those bilateral flows.

Keywords:

investment,

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