The role of the state in escaping the middle-income trap: the case for smart industrial policy

Batılı devletler ve onların kontrolündeki uluslararası kuruluşlar 1980'li yıllardan bu yana dünyanın diğer ülkeleri için Washington İttifakı olarak adlandırılan kalkınma gündemini önermişlerdir. Bu ittifak, kapitalist gelişmekte olan ülkelerin yeterli gelir ve servet yaratarak gelişmiş ülke olabilmelerinin yolunun açık olduğunu savunur. Ancak bunun bir temel şartı vardır: Devlet, kendini sadece piyasaların iyi işletilmesi işleviyle sınırlamalı ve bunu ötesine geçmemeli. Örneğin, ülkeyi mevcut karşılaştırmalı üstünlüklerin ötesine taşıyacak sanayi politikaları uygulamamalı. Ama asla göz ardı edilmemeli ki, son iki yüzyılda gelişmiş ülke konumuna ulaşan batılı-olmayan ülke sayısı 10'dan azdır; bunların tamamına yakını da küçük nüfusa sahip ülkelerdir. Bu durum, Washington İttifakı ile ters düşen bir kavram olan orta gelir tuzağının (başka bir deyişle az gelişmiş ülkelerle gelişmiş ülkeler arasında "yakınsamama tuzağının") varlığı için bir kanıt oluşturmaktadır. Bu çalışma, orta gelir tuzağının varlığını kanıtlayan unsurları ve ona yol açan mekanizmaları özetledikten sonra bu tuzaktan çok gecikmeden çıkabilmek için proaktif (ileriye etkili) dış ticaret ve sanayi politikalarının uygulanmasının (neredeyse) şart olduğunun gerekçelerini ortaya koymaktadır. Bu çalışma ayrıca, çeşitli ülke deneyimleri ışığında dış ticaret ve sanayi politikalarının iyi bir biçimde uygulanma yöntemlerine ilişkin önerilerde bulunmaktadır. Bunu yaparken bu politikalara sıcak bakmayan ana akım yaklaşımlardan farklı bir yol izlemiş olmaktadır. Sektörler temelinde hedeflenmiş sanayi politikalarının orta gelir tuzağından çıkma konusunda etkili olabileceği ve kimi Doğu Asya ülkelerinde başarılı olduğu vurgulanırken bu politikaların uygulanması sürecinde karşılaşılabilecek güçlüklere de dikkat çekilmektedir.

Orta gelir tuzağından kurtulma sürecinde devletin rolü: Akıllı sanayi politikası gerekçesi

Western states and western-run international organizations have advocated the Washington Consensus development agenda for the rest of the world since the 1980s. The consensus implies that capitalist developing countries will be able to create sufficient income and wealth as to become "developed" provided the government limits itself to doing what is needed to make markets work well, and not more (for example, not industrial policy which pushes investment beyond existing comparative advantage). Yet the number of non-western countries which have become developed in the past two centuries is less than 10, and they are almost all small in population. Stylized facts of this kind provide evidence for the nonWashington Consensus idea of a "middle-income trap" (MIT) or "non-convergence trap". This paper summarizes evidence for the existence of a MIT, outlines several plausible mechanisms, explains why proactive trade and industrial policies are an (almost) necessary condition for getting through the middle income range at more than a snail's pace, and suggests some "rules of thumb", based on experience of actual cases, for how to do trade and industrial policies well - rather than, as the mainstream view says, less.

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