Sırma Demir ŞEKER, MELTEM DAYIOĞLU TAYFUR

The effect of the global financial crisis on household income, inequality and poverty in Turkey

Bu çalışmanın amacı küresel finansal krizin hane geliri, gelir dağılımı ve yoksulluk üzerindeki etkilerini Türkiye özelinde incelemektir. Çalışmanın temel veri kaynağını TÜİK tarafından toplanan Gelir ve Yaşam Koşulları Araştırması'nın mikro verileri oluşturmaktadır. Küresel finansal krizinin hane refahı üzerindeki etkileri incelenirken, 2009 yılındaki hane geliri, kriz öncesini ve sonrasını temsilen, sırasıyla, 2007 ve 2011 yılı hane gelirleri ile karşılaştırılmaktadır. Çalışmanın bulguları, 2007-2009 döneminde (reel) hanehalkı kullanılabilir fert gelirinin yüzde 3,6 düştüğünü göstermektedir. Ancak, eşdeğer fert geliri bu dönemde daha az bir düşüş göstererek yüzde 1,2 azalmıştır. Kriz dönemimde gelir eşitsizliğinin de azaldığı, mutlak yoksulluğun ise çok az da olsa düştüğü görülmektedir. Hane büyüklüğü ve kompoziyonunun, hanenin işgücü arzındaki değişimlerin ve primsiz sosyal yardımların küresel finansal krizin etkilerini azaltmada rol oynadıkları görülmektedir. Kriz sonrası dönemde ise gerek hanehalkı kullanılabilir fert geliri, gerekse de eşdeğer gelirin arttığı görülmektedir. Buna paralel olarak da mutlak yoksulluğun kayda değer bir gerileme gösterdiği ancak gelir dağılımının bir miktar bozulduğu gözlemlenmektedir.

Küresel finansal krizin Türkiye'de hane geliri, gelir dağılımı ve yoksulluk üzerindeki etkileri

Using a nationally representative large scale micro data, we investigate the effect of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) on household income, inequality and poverty in Turkey. In assessing the impact of the GFC, we take 2007 (pre-crisis year) as the benchmark and compare 2009 to 2007 and to 2011 (post-crisis period). We find that (real) household disposable income drops by 3.6 percent from 2007 to 2009, but that the decline in equivalized income is lower at 1.2 percent. Income inequality decreases over the crisis period, so does the absolute poverty rate, though quite marginally. Changes in household size and composition, household labor supply and non-contributory transfers help mitigate the negative effects of the GFC. The period following the crisis is marked by increases in both disposable income and equivalized income, and a sizeable drop in the poverty rate though we also observe an increase in income inequality

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