Merve Mavuş KÜTÜK, ELİF AKBOSTANCI ÖZKAZANÇ

Do regional trade agreements actually increase Turkey's foreign trade?

Çıkmaza giren Dünya Ticaret Örgütü Doha ticaret müzakerelerinin sonrasında, gümrük birliği (GB) ve serbest ticaret anlaşmaları (STA) dış ticarette daha da önem kazanmıştır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye'nin dış ticaretinde bölgesel ticaret anlaşmalarının (BTA) rolünü analiz etmektir. BTA'ların Türkiye'nın dış ticaretine etkileri Anderson ve van Wincoop (2003) çalışmasına göre oluşturulan çekim modeli çerçevesinde incelenmektedir. Çalışma 1992-2013 döneminde Türkiye'nin ticaret ortağı olduğu 126 ülkeye ait ticaret verilerini kapsamaktadır. Ampirik bulgular GB'nin Türkiye'nin ihracatını etkilemediğini ancak ithalatını artırdığını göstermektedir. Ayrıca, STA'ların Türkiye'nin hem ihracatı hem de ithalatı üzerinde bir etkisi bulunamamıştır.

Bölgesel ticaret anlaşmaları Türkiye'nin dış ticaretini artırıyor mu?

After the deadlock of World Trade Organization Doha trade negotiations since 2000, trade agreements like Customs Union (CU) and free trade agreements (FTAs) gained further importance in foreign trade. The aim of this study is to analyze the role of regional trade agreements (RTAs) of Turkey in her foreign trade. Effects of the RTAs on Turkey's foreign trade are analyzed through gravity model in line with the study of Anderson and van Wincoop (2003). The study covers Turkey's trade flows with 126 trade partners for the period 19922013. Empirical findings reveal that the CU does not affect Turkey's exports but it increases imports of Turkey. Also, it is found that the FTAs do not have any impact on either exports or imports of Turkey.

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