Özgür KAYMAZ, Onder KAYMAZ, Batuhan GÜVEMLİ

Gelişmekte Olan Bir Piyasa Olarak Türkiye'de Temettü Sinyalleşme Teorisinin Test Edilmesi: Borsa İstanbul'da Listelenen Firmalardan Ampirik Kanıtlar

Temettüler (kar payları) ve karlılık (finansal performans) halen tartışmasız bir şekilde finansal araştırmanın en göze çarpan özellikleri arasındadır. Bu makale, genel olarak sinyalizasyon teorisinin işe yarayıp yaramadığını ve nasıl çalıştığını ampirik olarak araştırmakla ilgilenirken, aynı zamanda temettülerin özellikle kurumsal finansal performansı ifade eden kurumsal karlılıktan ne ölçüde sorumlu olabileceğini incelemekle ilgilenmektedir. Bu çalışmada dinamik panel regresyonları, gelişmekte olan bir pazar ekonomisi için on iki (12) farklı model üzerindeki tahminlerimizi test etmek üzere, borsada kote edilen 45 şirket örnekleminde 2000'den 2018'e uzanan bir zaman penceresi ile gerçekleştirilmektedir. Finansal ve finansal olmayan şirketler ayrı ayrı incelenmekte ve birlikte karşılaştırılmaktadır. Sonuçlar genellikle (mevcut) temettülerin gelecek donemdeki kurumsal karlılığın habercisi olma noktasında ilgisiz olma eğiliminde olduğunu belgelemektedir. Mamafih; ampirik kanıtlar, finansal olmayan şirketler için temettülerin, bağımlı değişkenin (karlılığın) Vergi Öncesi Kazanç / Ödenmiş Sermaye olarak ölçülebilen “Sermaye Getirisi” olması durumunda gelecek donemdeki karlılığı açıkladığını göstermektedir. Özellikle, cari donemdeki temettü dağıtımı ile gelecek donemdeki karlılık arasında pozitif seyreden ilişki bize kar payları ne kadar yüksek (düşük) ise karlılığın da o kadar yüksek (düşük) olması anlamına gelmektedir. Buna ek olarak, bu çalışma, test edilen bütün modellerin büyük bir kısmı için, kurumsal karlılık veya kurumsal finansal performans olarak temsil edilen (ölçülebilen) bağımlı değişkenin gecikmeli ve öncü değerleri arasında, finansal şirketler ve/veya finansal olmayan şirketler için, anlamlı bir ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Sinyalizasyon Teorisi, Temettü, Karlılık, Finansal Performans, Bilgi İçeriği, Değer İlgisi, Finansal Şirketler, Finansal Olmayan (Reel) Şirketler. Borsa İstanbul.

Testing Dividend Signaling Theory in Turkey as an Emerging Market: Empirical Evidence From Public Firms Listed in Borsa Istanbul

Dividends (profit share) and profitability (financial performance) still remain unarguably among the most salient attributes of financial research. This paper is interested in empirically exploring if and how signalization theory works in general while being interested in also exploring to what extent dividends may account for the corporate profitability being corporate financial performance in particular. Dynamic panel regressions are performed to test our predictions on twelve (12) different models for an emerging market economy with a sampling time window spanning 2000 through 2018 for 45 listed companies. Financial firms (FFs) versus Non-Financial firms (NFFs) are examined separately and compared together. Although results usually document that (present) dividends tend to be irrelevant in accounting for (signalling future) corporate profitability. However, we have found evidence that dividends, for NFFs, were documented to be relevant in explaining future corporate profitability when the regressed variable is proxied as Return on Capital which may be captured as Earnings Before Tax/Paid-in Capital. In particular, the relationship between present corporate dividend distribution and future corporate profitability is positive, suggesting the higher (lower) the dividends the higher (lower) the profitability. In addition, of all the models tested, for a sizeable fraction, we have also found significant linkage between the lagged and the leadership values of the dependent variable being corporate profitability or corporate financial performance, either for FFs or NFFs if not both

Keywords:

Signalization Theory, Dividend, Profitability, Financial Performance, Information Content, Value Relevance, Financial Companies, Non-Financial Companies. Borsa Istanbul,

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