Düzen, Düzensizlik, Yeniden Düzen: Liberal Uluslararası düzen Çin-Amerikan Rekabetini “Atlatabilir” mi?

Günümüzde uluslararası siyasetin geleceği, Çin-Amerikan rekabetinin nasıl şekilleneceğine bağlıdır. Bu rekabete ilişkin beklentiler, barışçıl evrimden hegemonik bir güç geçişi olasılığına kadar uzanmaktadır, ancak liberal uluslararası düzenin olayların seyrini şekillendirme olasılığının genelde göz ardı edildiği görülmektedir. Yapısı ve uyum yeteneğine bağlı olarak söz konusu düzen, bu rekabetin içinde cereyan ettiği ortamdan çok daha fazlasını ifade etmektedir. Amerikan ve Çin tercihlerinin önemli bir belirleyicisi olma ve ilişkileri iş birliğine doğru yöneltme kapasitesine sahiptir. Liberal uluslararası düzenin İkinci Dünya Savaşı sonrası dönemdeki başarısı, yaratmayı başardığı, karşılıklı kazanımların yanı sıra revizyonist dönüşümlerde yüksek maliyet yaratma gücüne sahip olmasıyla tanımlanan ortamın ürünüdür. Ayrıca bu düzen, devlet davranışı üzerinde etkili olmasını sağlayan yapısal bir karaktere de sahiptir. Liberal uluslararasıcı teoriye dayanan bu makale, liberal uluslararası düzenin yoğunlaşan büyük güç rekabetinin sonuçta kazananı olma olasılığının yüksek olduğunu savunmaktadır. Çeşitli argümanlara dayanan bu analiz, tarafların beklentilerine uygun, karar almaya ilişkin ikili bir liderlik mekanizması içeren ve yeniden şekillenen güç dinamiklerini yansıtan bir biçimde dönüşecek liberal uluslararası düzenin Çin-Amerikan çatışmasının çözümünde merkezi önemde olduğu sonucuna varmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Çin-Amerikan İlişkileri, Liberal uluslararası düzen, liberal uluslararasıcılık, karşılıklı bağımlılık

Order, Disorder, Reorder: Can The Liberal International Order “Survive” the Sino-American Competition?

The future of international politics today hinges on how the Sino-American rivalry unfolds. Views vary from expectations of peaceful evolution to hegemonic transition, but many fail to recognize the significant role the liberal international order (LIO) can play in shaping the course of events. Thanks to its structure and adaptability, the LIO is more than the mere environment surrounding this rivalry and may be the primary determinant of American and Chinese choices, steering relations toward cooperation. The success of the LIO during the post-WWII era is notably the product of the environment it has managed to create, characterized by mutual gains, as well as considerable costs in the event of a revisionist disruption. Moreover, the LIO has a structural character that enables it to exert influence on state behavior. This article, drawing on liberal internationalist theory, contends that the LIO demonstrates the substantial potential to emerge as the ultimate “victor” amidst the intensifying rivalry between the two major actors. By evaluating multiple arguments, the analysis concludes that a reformed version of the LIO, which accommodates both American and Chinese aspirations, includes a dual leadership mechanism in decision-making, and reflects the newly shaped power dynamics, offers a viable solution to the Sino-American competition.

Keywords:

Sino-American relations, liberal international order, liberal internationalism, interdependence,

PDF

___

Abbott, K. W., & Snidal, D. (2000). Hard and Soft Law in International Governance. International Organization, 54(3), 421–456. https://doi.org/10.1162/002.081.800551280. Acharya, A. (2018). The End of American World Order. Cambridge: Polity.
Albright, M. (2019). Fascism: A Warning. London: William Collins.
Alcaro, R. (2018). Contestation and Transformation. Final Thoughts on the Liberal International Order. The International Spectator, 53(1), 152–167. https://doi.org/10.1080/03932.729.2018.1429533
Allison, G. (2017a). Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? New York: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.
Allison, G. (2017b). The Thucydides Trap. Foreign Policy. Retrieved from https://foreignpolicy. com/2017/06/09/the-thucydides-trap/
Biden Jr., J. R. (2020). Why America Must Lead Again. Foreign Affairs, 99(2), 64–76.
Bijian, Z. (2005). China’s “Peaceful Rise” to Great-Power Status. Foreign Affairs, 84(5), 18–24. https://doi. org/10.2307/20031702
Bingguo, D. (2011, September 29). China Will Unswervingly Follow Path of Peaceful Development. Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Retrieved from https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/topics_665678/daibingguo_uk_665738/ t862043.shtml
Blancher, N. R., & Rumbaugh, T. (2004). China: International Trade and WTO Accession. IMF Working Papers, 04(36). https://doi.org/10.5089/978.145.1845488.001
Chan, S. (2021). Challenging the Liberal Order: The US Hegemon as a Revisionist Power. International Affairs, 97(5), 1335–1352. https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiab074
Chow, G. C. (2003). Impact of Joining the WTO on China’s Economic, Legal, and Political Institutions. Pacific Economic Review, 8(2), 105–115. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0106.2003.00213.x
Chow, G. C., & Perkins, D. H. (Eds.). (2015). Routledge Handbook of the Chinese Economy. New York: Routledge.
Cohen, W. I. (2019). America’s Response to China: A History of Sino-American Relations. New York: Columbia University Press.
Cox, M. (2008). The USA and Asia-Pacific. In M. Cox & D. Stokes (Eds.), US Foreign Policy (pp. 275–291). New York: Oxford University Press.
Deudney, D., & Ikenberry, G. J. (1999). The Nature and Sources of Liberal International Order. Review of International Studies, 25(2), 179–196. https://doi.org/10.1017/S026.021.0599001795
Deudney, D., & Ikenberry, G. J. (2018). Liberal World: The Resilient Order. Foreign Affairs, 97(4), 16–24.
Donduran, C. (2020). The ‘Trumpist’ Foreign Policy and the American Tradition. In M. K. Öke & H. Yazici (Eds.), Ultra-Nationalist Policies of Trump and Reflections in the World (pp. 169–178). Berlin: Peter Lang. Drezner, D. W. (2011). Does Obama Have a Grand Strategy? Why We Need Doctrines in Uncertain Times. Foreign Affairs, 90(4), 57–68.
Feffer, J. (2021). Multilateralism and the Biden Administration. New York: Institute for Policy Studies. Retrieved from https://rosalux.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/RLS-NYC_Biden_Multilateralism.pdf
Fenby, J. (2014). Will China Dominate the 21st Century? New York: John Wiley & Sons.
Ferguson, N. (2008, November 17). Niall Ferguson—Niall Ferguson Says U.S.-China Cooperation Is Critical to Global Economic Health. Washington Post. Retrieved from http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2008/11/16/AR200.811.1601736.html
Flockhart, T. (2020). Is This the End? Resilience, Ontological Security, and the Crisis of the Liberal International Order. Contemporary Security Policy, 41(2), 215–240. https://doi.org/10.1080/13523 .260.2020.1723966
Gabuev, A. (2023, April 12). What’s Really Going on Between Russia and China. Foreign Affairs. Retrieved from https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/whats-really-going-between-russia-and-china GDP (current US$)—China | Data. (n.d.). World Bank. Retrieved from https://data.worldbank.org/ indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?end=2020&locations=CN&start=2000&view=chart GDP per capita (current US$)—China | Data. (n.d.). World Bank. Retrieved from https://data.worldbank. org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?end=2020&locations=CN&start=2000&view=chart GDP per capita growth (annual %)—China | Data. (n.d.). World Bank. Retrieved from https://data.worldbank. org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG?end=2020&locations=CN&start=2000&view=chart
Gilpin, R. (1981). War and Change in World Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Glaser, C. L. (2019). A Flawed Framework: Why the Liberal International Order Concept Is Misguided. International Security, 43(4), 51–87. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00343
Goldberg, J. (2016). The Obama Doctrine. The Atlantic. Retrieved from https://www.theatlantic.com/ magazine/archive/2016/04/the-obama-doctrine/471525/
Haas, P. M., Keohane, R. O., Levy, M. A., Keohane, J. B. D. P. of P. S. R. O., & Gasser, L. (Eds.). (1993). Institutions for the Earth: Sources of Effective International Environmental Protection. Cambridge: MIT Press.
Hass, R. (2021a). How China is Responding to Escalating Strategic Competition with the US. Washington: Brookings Institution. Retrieved from https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-china-is-respondingto-escalating-strategic-competition-with-the-us/
Hass, R. (2021b, April 29). China Is Not Ten Feet Tall. Foreign Affairs. Retrieved from https://www. foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2021-03-03/china-not-ten-feet-tall
Ikenberry, G. J. (1998). Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Persistence of American Postwar Order. International Security, 23(3), 43–78. https://doi.org/10.2307/2539338
Ikenberry, G. J. (2001). After Victory: Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Rebuilding of Order After Major Wars. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Ikenberry, G. J. (2008). The Rise of China and the Future of the West: Can the Liberal System Survive? Foreign Affairs, 87(1), 23–37.
Ikenberry, G. J. (2009). Liberal Internationalism 3.0: America and the Dilemmas of Liberal World Order. Perspectives on Politics, 7(1), 71–87. https://doi.org/10.1017/S153.759.2709090112.
Ikenberry, G. J. (2010). The Liberal International Order and its Discontents. Millennium: Journal of International Studies, 38(3), 509–521. https://doi.org/10.1177/030.582.9810366477.
Ikenberry, G. J. (2011). Liberal Leviathan: The Origins, Crisis, and Transformation of the American World Order. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Ikenberry, G. J. (2014). The Illusion of Geopolitics: The Enduring Power of the Liberal Order. Foreign Affairs, 93(3), 80–90.
Ikenberry, G. J. (2017). The Plot Against American Foreign Policy: Can the Liberal Order Survive? Foreign Affairs, 96(3), 2–9.
Ikenberry, G. J. (2018). The End of Liberal International Order? International Affairs, 94(1), 7–23. https:// doi.org/10.1093/ia/iix241
Ikenberry, G. J. (2020). A World Safe for Democracy: Liberal Internationalism and the Crises of Global Order. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Ikenberry, G. J., & Lim, D. J. (2017). China’s Emerging Institutional Statecraft: The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the Prospects for Counter-Hegemony. Brookings. Retrieved from https://www. brookings.edu/research/chinas-emerging-institutional-statecraft/
Jackson, V. (2022). America’s Asia Strategy Has Reached a Dead End. Foreign Policy. Retrieved from https:// foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/09/us-southeast-asia-china-biden-economic-strategy-geopolitics/
Jervis, R. (2002). Theories of War in an Era of Leading-Power Peace. American Political Science Review, 96(1), 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1017/S000.305.5402004197 Jervis, R., Gavin, F. J., Rovner, J., & Labrosse, D. N. (Eds.). (2018). Chaos in the Liberal Order: The Trump Presidency and International Politics in the Twenty-First Century. Columbia University Press. https:// doi.org/10.7312/jerv18834
Jinglian, W., & Shitao, F. (2015). China’s economic reform: Processes, issues, and prospects. In G. C. Chow & D. H. Perkins (Eds.), Routledge Handbook of the Chinese Economy (pp. 55–75). New York: Routledge.
Jinping, X. (2023, March 20). Forging Ahead to Open a New Chapter of China-Russia Friendship, Cooperation and Common Development. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China. Retrieved from https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/wjdt_665385/zyjh_665391/202303/t20230320_11044359.html
Johnson, T., & Heiss, A. (2018). Liberal Institutionalism. In T. G. Weiss & R. Wilkinson (Eds.), International Organization and Global Governance (pp. 123–134). New York: Routledge.
Jones, B., Wright, T., Shapiro, J., & Keane, R. (2014). The State of the International Order (Policy Paper No. 33). Brookings Institution. Retrieved from https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/ intlorder_report.pdf
Jones, H. (2010). Chinamerica: The Uneasy Partnership that Will Change the World. New York: Mcgraw-Hill.
Keohane, Robert O. (1984). After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Keohane, Robert O. (2018). International Institutions and State Power: Essays in International Relations Theory. London: Routledge.
Keohane, Robert O., & Martin, L. L. (1995). The Promise of Institutionalist Theory. International Security, 20(1), 39–51. https://doi.org/10.2307/2539214
Keohane, Robert Owen, & Nye, J. S. (1977). Power and Interdependence. Boston: Little, Brown.
Kim, S., & Kim, S. (2022). China’s Contestation of the Liberal International Order. The Pacific Review, 1–26. https://doi.org/10.1080/09512.748.2022.2063367
Kim, S. S. (1994). Sovereignty in the Chinese Image of World Order. In T. Wang & R. S. J. Macdonald (Eds.), Essays in Honour of Wang Tieya (pp. 425–445). Boston: M. Nijhoff Publishers.
Kimmage, M. (2020). The Abandonment of the West: The History of an Idea in American Foreign Policy. New York: Basic Books. Kissinger, H. (2015). World Order: Reflections on the Character of Nations and the Course of History. London: Penguin Books.
Kissinger, H., Zakaria, F., Ferguson, N., Li, D., Griffiths, R., & Luciani, P. (2011). Does the 21st century belong to China? Kissinger and Zakaria vs. Ferguson and Li: The Munk Debate on China. Berkeley: Publishers Group West.
Krauthammer, C. (2005, July 1). The Neoconservative Convergence. Commentary. Retrieved from https:// www.commentary.org/articles/charles-krauthammer/the-neoconservative-convergence/
Kuhn, A. (2017, October 18). China’s Xi Jinping Lauds “New Era” of Strength as He Opens National Congress. NPR. Retrieved from https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/10/18/558548515/ chinas-xi-jinping-lauds-new-era-of-strength-as-he-opens-national-congress
Lafeber, W. (2002). The Bush Doctrine. Diplomatic History, 26(4), 543–558. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467- 7709.00326.
Lake, D. A. (2020). Whither the Liberal International Order? Authority, Hierarchy, and Institutional Change. Ethics & International Affairs, 34(4), 461–471. https://doi.org/10.1017/S089.267.9420000611
Lake, D. A., Martin, L. L., & Risse, T. (2021). Challenges to the Liberal Order: Reflections on International Organization. International Organization, 75(2), 225–257. https://doi.org/10.1017/ S002.081.8320000636 Lanteigne, M. (2019). Chinese Foreign Policy: An Introduction. New York: Routledge.
Layne, C. (2009). The Waning of U. S. Hegemony—Myth or Reality? A Review Essay. International Security, 34(1), 147–172. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec.2009.34.1.147.
Layne, C. (2018). The US–Chinese Power Shift and the End of the Pax Americana. International Affairs, 94(1), 89–111. https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iix249 Lemke, D., & Tammen, R. L. (2003). Power Transition Theory and the Rise of China. International Interactions, 29(4), 269–271. https://doi.org/10.1177/223.386.5915598545.
Leonard, T. G. A., Ivan Krastev, Mark, Krastev, I., & Leonard, M. (2023, February 22). United West, Divided from the Rest: Global Public Opinion One year into Russia’s War on Ukraine. ECPR. Retrieved from https://ecfr.eu/publication/united-west-divided-from-the-rest-global-public-opinion-one-yearinto-russias-war-on-ukraine/
Li, A. H. F. (2017). China Facing the Trump Presidency: Opportunities for Global Power Projection? China Perspectives, 2017(2), 69–73. https://doi.org/10.4000/chinaperspectives.7357 Li, X. (2012). Understanding China’s Behavioral Change in the WTO Dispute Settlement System. Asian Survey, 52(6), 1111–1137. https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2012.52.6.1111 Lu, Y.-C. (2012). China and the Liberal International Order: Did China’s Accession to WTO Shape Its Behavior? SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2125559
Mead, W. R. (2014). The Return of Geopolitics: The Revenge of the Revisionist Powers. Foreign Affairs, 93(3), 69–79.
Mearsheimer, J. J. (2001). The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. New York: Norton.
Mearsheimer, J. J. (2019). Bound to Fail: The Rise and Fall of the Liberal International Order. International Security, 43(4), 7–50. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00342 Mueller, J. E. (1996). Retreat from Doomsday: The Obsolescence of Major War. New York: Basic Books. National Security Strategy of the United States of America. (2017). Retrieved from https://trumpwhitehouse. archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf
Net trade in goods and services (BoP, current US$)—China | Data. (n.d.). World Bank. Retrieved from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BN.GSR.GNFS.CD?end=2020&locations=CN&start=2000
Nye, J. S. (2015). Is the American Century Over? Cambridge: Polity.
Organski, A. F. K. (1958). World Politics. New York: Alfred A. Knopf.
Paul, T. V. (2021). Globalization, Deglobalization and Reglobalization: Adapting Liberal International Order. International Affairs, 97(5), 1599–1620. https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiab072
Pompeo, M. R. (2020, July 23). Communist China and the Free World’s Future. United States Department of State. Retrieved from https://2017-2021.state.gov/communist-china-and-the-free-worlds-future-2/ index.html
Powaski, R. E. (2019). Ideals, Interests, and U.S. Foreign Policy from George H. W. Bush to Donald Trump. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-97295-4
Qingguo, J. (2008). Learning to Live with the Hegemon: China’s Policy toward the U.S.A. Since the End of the Cold War. In S. Zhao (Ed.), China-U.S. Relations Transformed: Perspectives and Strategic Interactions (pp. 45–57). New York: Routledge.
Ray, A. (2002). The Chinese Economic Miracle: Lessons to Be Learnt. Economic and Political Weekly, 37(37), 3835–3848.
Read: President-elect Joe Biden’s Remarks. (2020, November 7). CNN. Retrieved from https://edition.cnn. com/2020/11/07/politics/joe-biden-president-elect-remarks/index.html
Remarks by President Obama and President Xi Jinping of the People’s Republic of China Before Bilateral Meeting. (2013, June 7). The White House. Retrieved from https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/ the-press-office/2013/06/07/remarks-president-obama-and-president-xi-jinping-peoples-republicchinaRice, C. (2005, March 19). Remarks at Sophia University. U.S. Department of State Archive Retrieved from https://2001-2009.state.gov/secretary/rm/2005/43655.htm
Rose, G. (2015). What Obama Gets Right: Keep Calm and Carry the Liberal Order On. Foreign Affairs, 94(5), 2–12.
Rudolf, P. (2020). The Sino-American world conflict. SWP Research Paper, (3). https://doi. org/10.18449/2020RP03
Shambaugh, D. (2000). Sino-American Strategic Relations: From Partners to Competitors. Survival, 42(1), 97–115. https://doi.org/10.1080/713660152
Sharma, S. D. (2020). Trump and the End of an Era? The Liberal International Order in Perspective. The International Spectator, 55(3), 82–97. https://doi.org/10.1080/03932.729.2020.1786927
Stephen, M. D., & Skidmore, D. (2019). The AIIB in the Liberal International Order. The Chinese Journal of International Politics, 12(1), 61–91. https://doi.org/10.1093/cjip/poy021
Sutter, R. G. (2010). U.S.-Chinese Relations: Perilous Past, Pragmatic Present. Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers. The 2018 National Defense Strategy. (2018). U.S. Department of Defense. Retrieved from https://www.hsdl. org/c/2018-national-defense-strategy/ The Longer Telegram: Toward a New American China Strategy. (2021, January 28). Atlantic Council. Retrieved from https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/atlantic-council-strategy-paperseries/the-longer-telegram/
The Report on Human Rights Violations in the United States in 2022. (2023, March 28). The State Council Information Office of China. Retrieved from http://english.scio.gov.cn/scionews/2023-03/28/ content_85196298.htm
The State of Democracy in the United States: 2022. (2023, March 20). Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China. Retrieved from https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/ wjdt_665385/2649_665393/202303/t20230320_11044481.html
Thucydides. (1974). History of the Peloponnesian War (M. Finley, Ed.; R. Warner, Trans.). London: Penguin.
Tierney, D. (2021). Why Global Order Needs Disorder. Survival, 63(2), 115–138. https://doi.org/10.1080/0 0396.338.2021.1905981
US Hegemony and Its Perils. (2023, February 20). Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China. Retrieved from https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjbxw/202302/t20230220_11027664. html
Villepin: War is Acknowledgment of Failure. (2003, March 9). CNN Retrieved from https://edition.cnn. com/2003/WORLD/meast/03/07/villepin.transcript/
Whiting, A. S. (1995). Chinese Nationalism and Foreign Policy after Deng. The China Quarterly, (142), 295– 316. https://doi.org/10.1017/S030.574.1000034950.
World Bank. (2013). China 2030: Building a Modern, Harmonious, and Creative Society. Washington, D.C.
Wright, T. (2020, November 22). The Fraught Politics Facing Biden’s Foreign Policy. Brookings. Retrieved from https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/11/23/the-fraught-politics-facingbidens-foreign-policy/
Wunderlich, U. (2022, April 5). Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: A Turning Point for European Integration? LSE Blogs. Retrieved from https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2022/04/05/russias-invasion-of-ukrainea-turning-point-for-european-integration/
Zakaria, F. (2011). The Post-American World: Release 2.0. New York: W.W. Norton.
Zhong, R., & Mozur, P. (2018, March 23). For the U.S. and China, a Technology Cold War That’s Freezing Over. The New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/23/technology/ trump-china-tariffs-tech-cold-war.html
Zoellick, R. B. (2005, September 21). Whither China: From Membership to Responsibility? Retrieved from https://2001-2009.state.gov/s/d/former/zoellick/rem/53682.htm