Yapısal kırılmaların varlığında,Wagner kanunu Türkiye için geçerli mi?

Çalışma kamu harcamaları ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiyi açıklayan Wagner Kanununun Türkiye açısından geçerliliğini araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Çalışmada 1923–2006 dönemine ilişkin toplam kamu harcaması, GSMH ve nüfus verilerinden oluşan zaman serileri kullanılmıştır. Wagner Kanununu yorumlayan beş model kullanılmıştır. Kullanılan bu modeller üzerinden, koentegrasyon analizinde yapısal kırılmaların etkisini ortaya koyan Johansen et al. (2000) prosedürü kullanılmış ve uzun dönem elastikiyetleri tahmin edilmiştir. Bu modeller üzerinden gerçekleştirilen analizler Wagner Kanununun 1923–2006 dönemine ilişkin olarak desteklemektedir. Modeller açısından bakıldığında destekleme güçleri farklılaşmakla birlikte, genel olarak GSMH’den kamu harcamalarına doğru işleyen pozitif yönlü bir etkileşimin var olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Is Wagner's law valid for Turkey in the presence of structural breaks?

This paper investigates statistically the existence of a long-run relationship between public expenditure and GNP (Wagner’s Law) using data for Turkey over the period 1927-2006. The study comprises five sections. The empirical results using the multiple structural break unit root tests of co integration provide strong support for the Wagner’s Law. It is valid for all Wagner’s Law specifications which are used in the study. From a specification point of view, the sensitivity of public expenditures to GNP appears differently. But, it can be said that there is a positive directional interaction processing from GNP through to the public expenditures.

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