ERCAN YAŞAR, MESUT ALPER GEZER

Türkiye'nin orta gelir tuzağına yakalanma riski ve bu riskten kurtulma önerileri

Türkiye ekonomisi 1960 yılından sonra düşük gelirli ve düşük orta gelirli ülke olarak 45 yıl geçirmiştir. 2004 yılında yüksek orta gelirli ülkeler seviyesine ulaşmıştır ve 10 yıldır bu grupta yer almaktadır. Daha önce yüksek orta gelirli ülke konumunda olup zamanla yüksek gelirli ülke konumuna gelen örneklere bakıldığında Porto-Riko, Uruguay ve Yunanistan gibi ülkelerin 19 yılda bu dönüşümü gerçekleştirebildikleri görülmektedir. Her ne kadar Türkiyenin 2023 hedeflerine ulaşabilmesi konusunda dokuz yılı bulunsa da 2013 ve sonrası yıllarda yapısal dönüşümlerle birlikte kişi başı gelirinde yıllık ortalama %5 artış sağlayabilirse yüksek orta gelir tuzağına yakalanmadan yüksek gelirli ülkeler grubuna girmesi söz konusu olabilir.

Risk of Turkeys falling into a middle-income trap and suggestions to avoid the risk

Turkish economy had passed 45 years as a low-income and lower-middleincome country after 1960. In 2004, Turkey rose to the level of Upper-MiddleIncome Countries and has been in this group for 10 years. It is evident that countries like Puerto Rico, Uruguay and Greece have achieved this transformation in 19 years considering the examples which had previously been Upper-Middle-Income countries and then rose to High-Income Level in the course of time. Although Turkey has 9 years to attain 2023 targets, Turkey may join High-Income group by avoiding Upper-Middle-Income Trap provided that it can annually achieve 5% increase on average in per capita income through structural transformations from 2013 onwards.

PDF

___

Agenor, P.-R. ve Canuto, O. (2012), Middle Income Growth Traps, World Bank Policy Research, (6210), 1-40.

Agenor, P.-R., Canuto, O. ve Jelenic, M. (2012), Avoiding Middle-Income Growth Trap, The World Bank Economic Premise, (98), 1-7.

Asia 2050 (2011), Asia 2050: Realising the Asian Century, Manila: Asian Development Bank.

Berg, J.V. (2013), Escaping the Middle-Income Trap by Moving Up the Technology Ladder? An Empirical Investigation, Rotterdam: Erasmus School of Economics.

China 2030 (2013), China 2030: Building a Modern, Harmonious and Creative Society, Washington DC: World Bank Development Research Center of the State Council.

Eğilmez, M. (2012), Kendime Yazılar, http://www.mahfiegilmez.com/2012/12/ orta-gelir-tuzag-ve-turkiye.html (Erişim Tarihi: 11.06.2013)

Eichengreen, B. (2011), Escaping the Middle Income Trap, Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, 2011, 409-419.

Eichengreen, B., Park, D. ve Shin, K. (2012), When Fast Growing Economies Slowdown: International Evidence and Implications of China, NBER Working Paper, 11(1) (16919), 42-87.

Eşiyok, A. (2004), Türkiye Ekonomisinde Kalkınma Stratejileri ve Sanayileşme, Ankara: Türkiye Kalkınma Bankası Aù.

Felipe, J., Abdon, A. ve Kumar, U. (2012), Tracking the Middle Income Trap: What is It, Who is in It and Why?, Levy Economics Institue, (715), 1-59.

Flaen, A., Ghani, E. ve Mishra, S. (2013), How to Avoid Middle Income Traps? Evidence from Malaysia, The World Bank, I (6427), 1-53.

Ghani, E., Flaeen, A. ve Mishra, S. (2013), How to Avoid Middle Income Traps?, blogs.worldbank.org: http://blogs.worldbank.org/developmenttalk/how-avoid- middle-income-traps (Erişim Tarihi: 29.04.2014)

Gill, I. ve Kharas, H. (2007), An East Asian Renaissance: Ideas for Economic Growth, Washinghton DC: World Bank.

HDR (2013), Human Development Report, New York: United Nations Development Programme.

Islam, N. (2013), Beyond the Middle Income Trap: What Kind of High Income Country can China Become?, icsead.or.jp: http://www.icsead.or.jp/user03/ 1165_210_20131021100741.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 01.05. 2014)

Jankowska, A., Nagengast, A.J. ve Pera, J.R. (2012), The Middle Income Trap: Comparing Asian and Latin American Experiences, OECD Development Centre, (96), 1-2.

Kharas, H. ve Kohli, H. (2011), What Is the Middle Income Trap, Why do Countries Fall into It, and How Can It Be Avoided?, Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, III(3), 281-289.

Kritayanavaj, B., Woo, K.I., Fangchanda, S., Satthaworasit, V., Chientachakul, A. ve Tummanon, A. (2012), Breaking Out of Middle Income Trap, Asia-Pacific Housing Journal, 6(20), 90-96.

Lin, J.Y. (2001), Development Strategy, Viability and Economic Convergence, deepblue.lib.umich.edu.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/2027.42/3 9793/wp409.pdf?sequence=3 (Erişim Tarihi: 30.04.2014)

Mishra, S. ve Nathan, H.S.K. (2013), Measuring Human Development Index: The Old, the New and the Elegant, http://www.igidr.ac.in/pdf/publication/WP-2013- 020.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 18.03. 2014)

Ohno, K. (2012), Avoiding the Middle Income Trap: Renovating Industrial Policy Formulation in Vietnam, Asian Economic Bulletin, 29(1), 25-43.

Öz, S. (2012), Orta Gelir Tuzağı, Ekonomik Araştırma Formu, 1-4.

Özmen, M. (2012). Orta Gelir Tuzağı Patinaj Çektiriyor (R. Gazetesi, Röportaj Yapan).

Öztürk, İ. (2011), Strategies For Avoiding Middle Income Trap (I), Todays Zaman, http://www.todayszaman.com/columnists/ibrahim-ozturk_245891- strategies-for-avoiding-the-middle-income-trap-in-turkey-i.html (Erişim Tarihi: 20.10.2013)

Öztürk, İ., Arzova, B., Kar, M., Sağbaş, İ. ve Kaplan, M. (2012), Kalkınma Yolunda Yeni Eşik: Orta Gelir Tuzağı, İstanbul: Mavi Ofset.

Paus, E. (2009), The Rise of China: Implications fot Latin American Development, Development Policy Review, 419-456.

Paus, E. (2012), Confronting the Middle Income Trap: Insights from Small Latecomers, Springer Science, 115-139.

Spence, M. (2011), The Next Convergence: The Future of Economic Growth in a Multispeed World, New York: Farrar Straus Giroux.

TCEB (2012), 2023 Türkiye İhracat Stratejisi ve Eylem Planı, Ankara: Ekonomi Bakanlığı.

The World Bank (2013), http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development- indicators (Erişim Tarihi: 25.09. 2013)

Tho, T.V. (2013), The Middle-Income Trap: Issues for the Members of the Association of the Southeast Asian Nations, ADB Institute, (421), 1-33.

World Bank (2013a), Country and Lending Groups, data.worldbank.org: http://data.worldbank.org/about/country-classifications/country-and-lending- groups (Erişim Tarihi: 25.09.2013)

World Bank (2013b), How We Classify Countries?, data.worldbank.org: http://data.worldbank.org/about/country-classifications (Erişim Tarihi:24.09.2013)

Yeldan, E., Taşçı, K., Voyvoda, E. ve Özsan, M.E. (2012), Turkey On Her Way Out of Middle-Income Growth Trap: Which Turkey?, İstanbul: Türkonfed.

Yiğidim, A. (2012), Büyüme Politikaları: Türkiye Ekonomisi Açısından Bir Değerlendirme, Ekonomik Büyümenin Dinamikleri ve İstihdam: Kaynaklar ve Etkiler, Ankara: Türkiye Ekonomi Kurumu, 97-111.