EDA BOZKURT, SERAP BEDİR, DİLEK ÖZDEMİR, Erol ÇAKMAK

Orta gelir tuzağı ve Türkiye örneği

Orta gelir tuzağı (OGT), iktisat yazınında yeni bir konu olmakla beraber özellikle orta gelirli ülkelerin maruz kaldığı önemli bir tıkanıklıktır. 1960'lardan sonra orta gelir grubunda yer alan az sayıda ülkenin yüksek gelirli ülke kategorisine ulaşmış olması konunun orta gelirli ülkeler için önemini arttırmaktadır. Çalışmada Türkiye'nin 19712012 dönemine ilişkin yıllık verileri kullanılarak yakınsama ve ARDL analizi yapılmıştır. Bulgular, Türkiye'nin yüksek gelirli ülkelere yakınsadığı; yüksek eğitimde okullaşma ve yurt içi tasarruf oranlarının kişi başına düşen gelir üzerinde pozitif ve anlamlı etkilere sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Sonuçta Türkiyede OGT'den kurtulmak için sanayisizleşme riski ortadan kaldırılmalı ve eğitim sistemi yenilik ve teknoloji odaklı olmalıdır.

Middle income trap and the case of Turkey

Middle income trap (MIT) is a major bottleneck in particular faced by the middle-income countries as well as a new topic in literature. After the 1960s, the importance of the subject is increased that few countries located in the middle income group have reached high-income countries category for countries. In this study,the convergence and ARDL analysis was performed using annual data of Turkey for the period 1971-2012. The results show thatTurkey is converge to high- income countries; higher education enrollment and domestic savings rates have a positive and meaningful effect on per capita income. Ultimately, the risk of deindustrialization should be removed to get rid of the MIT in Turkey and the education system should be focused on innovation and technology.

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