Türkiye’de mali açıkların sürdürülebilirliği ile kamu gelirleri ve harcamaları ilişkisinin analizi

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de, 1950-2009 dönemini kapsayan yıllık verilere dayalı zaman serisi teknikleriyle, devletin dönemler arası bütçe kısıtını temel alan bir bakış açısı kullanarak, maliye politikası uygulamalarını ampirik olarak analiz etmektir. Uygulamalı analiz sonuçları, ulaşılan üç temel sonuç yardımı ile sadece mali açığın sürdürülebilirliğine değil aynı zamanda gelir-harcama ilişkisine de ışık tutmaktadır: (i) Yapısal kırılmalar dikkate alınsa bile mali açıklar durağan değildir. Dolayısıyla, Türkiye’de uygulanmış olan maliye politikalarının sürdürülebilirliğinden bahsedilemez. (ii) Reel gelir ve harcama serilerinin, yapısal kırılmalar dikkate alınsın ya da alınmasın, eşbütünleşik olmaması nedeniyle yine maliye politikasının sürdürülebilir olmadığına işaret edilmektedir. (iii) Reel harcama ve gelir serileri arasında Granger anlamında bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunamamıştır

The analysis of the fiscal deficit sustainability and revenue-expenditure nexus in Turkey

The purpose of this study is to analyze empirically the fiscal policy regime in Turkey using a formal framework based on government’s intertemporal budget constraint by relying on time series methods and annual data of almost six decades (1950-2009). The empirical results of the study include not only an answer to sresults: (i) Fiscal deficits are not stationary even if the structural breaks are taken into account, reflecting that fiscal policy is not sustainable in Turkey. (ii) Taking or not the structural breaks into account, real revenue and expenditure series are not cointegrated, again, indicating that fiscal policy is not sustainable. (iii) No causality between real revenue and expenditures is detected.ustainability problem but also a revenue-spending nexus by pointing out three

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