İbrahim ARISOY, İlter ÜNLÜKAPLAN, ZUHAL ERGEN

Sosyal Harcamalar ve İktisadi Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Ekonomisinde 1960 – 2005 Dönemine Yönelik Bir Dinamik Analiz

İçsel büyüme literatüründe sosyal harcamaların düzeyi ile iktisadi büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi inceleyen uygulamalı çalışmalar farklı sonuçlara işaret etmektedir. Sosyal harcamaların bileşenlerinden olan eğitim ve sağlık harcamalarının iktisadi büyümeye olan olumlu katkıları genel kabul gören görüştür. Ancak sosyal koruma harcamalarının iktisadi büyümeye yönelik etkisini araştıran çalışmalar farklı sonuçlar vermiştir. Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye ekonomisinde 1960–2005 dönemi için sosyal harcama düzeyinin ve bu harcamaların bileşenlerinin iktisadi büyüme ile olan dinamik etkileşimlerini test etmektir. Analiz sonuçları gerek sosyal harcamaların gerekse de bu harcamaların alt bileşenleri olan eğitim, sağlık ve sosyal koruma harcamalarının iktisadi büyüme üzerindeki olumlu etkisini vurgulamaktadır.

The Relationship Between Social Expenditures and Economic Growth: A Dynamic Analysis Intended for 1960- 2005 Period of the Turkish Economy

In endogenous growth models different empirical studies which analyze the relationship between social expenditures and economic growth indicate different results. The widely accepted view is the positive effect of health and education expenditures, as the components of social expenditures, on the economic growth. Nevertheless, the results of studies analyze the relationship between social protection expenditures and economic growth yield mixed results. The object of this study is to test the dynamic interactions among social expenditures as well as the components of these expenditures and economic growth in Turkish economy for 1960 – 2005 period. The results of the analysis accentuate the positive effect of social expenditures as well as the components of social expenditures e.g., education, health and social protection expenditures.

PDF

___

Ahmad, E., Dreze, J. H. ve Sen, A. K. (der.) (1991), Social Security in Developing Countries, Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Arjona, R., Ladaique, M. ve Pearson, M. (2002), “Social Protection and Growth”, OECD Economic Studies, 35, 7- 45.

Arısoy, İ. (2005), “Wagner ve Keynes Hipotezleri Çerçevesinde Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi”, Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 14(2), 63-80.

Atkinson, A. B. (1995), “The Welfare State and Economic Performance”, National Tax Journal, 48, 171-198.

Atkinson, A. B. (1996), “Growth and the Welfare State: Is the Welfare State Necessarily Bad for Economic Growth”, New Economy, 3, 182-186.

Bakış, O., Jobert, T. ve Tuncer, R. (2008), “Kamu Harcamaları ve Büyüme: Zaman Serileri Analizi” , Kamu Harcamalarının Bileşiminin Büyüme ve Refah Etkileri içinde Betam, 81-101.

Baldacci, E., Clements, B., Gupta, S. ve Cui, Q. (2004), “Social Spending, Human Capital and Growth in Developing Countries: Implications for Achieving the MDGs”, IMF Working Paper, WP/04/217.

Barro, R. J. (1990), “Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth”, Journal of Political Economy, 98, S103-125.

Betam (2008), Kamu Harcamalarının Bileşiminin Büyüme ve Refah Etkileri, Bahçeşehir Üniversitesi Ekonomik ve Toplumsal Araştırmalar Merkezi.

Cashin, P. (1994), “Government Spending, Taxes and Economic Growth”, IMF Working Paper, WP/94/92.

Dayangaç, R., Gürsel, S. ve Öztürk, B. (2008), “Kamu Harcamalarının Bileşiminin Büyüme ve Refah Etkisi” Kamu Harcamalarının Bileşiminin Büyüme ve Refah Etkileri içinde Betam, 105-136.

Devarajan, S., Swaroop, V. ve Zou, H. Z. (1996), “The Composition of Public Expenditure and Economic Growth”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 37, 313- 414.

Enders, W. (2004), Applied Econometric Time Series, 2nd Edition, New York: John Wiley & Sons.

Fic, T. ve Ghate, C. (2005), “The Welfare State, Thresholds and Economic Growth”, Economic Modelling, 22, 571 - 598.

Granger, C. W. J. (1988), “Some Recent Developments in a Concept of Causality”, Journal of Econometrics, 39, 199-211.

Gwartney, J., Lawson, R.ve Holcombe, R.G. (1998), “The Size and Functions of Government and Economic Growth”, Joint Economic Committee Paper, Washington DC.

Greiner, A., Semmler, W. ve Gong, G. (2005), The Forces of Economic Growth: A Time Series Perspective, Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Hair, J. F., Anderson, R., Ronald, L. T. ve Black, W. C. (1998), Multivariate Data Analysis, New Jersey: Prentice Hall Int. Inc.

Harris, R. I. D. (1995), Using Cointegration in Economic Analysis, Hemel Hempstead: Harvester Wheatsheaf.

Hansson, P. ve Henrekson, M. (1994) “A New Framework for Testing the Effect of Government Spending on Growth and Productivity”, Public Choice, 81, 381- 401.

Herce, J. A., Rivero, S. R. ve Lucio, J. J. D. (2000), “Social Protection Benefits and Growth: Evidence from the European Union”, Applied Economic Letters, 7, 397- 400.

Herce, J. A., Rivero, S. R. ve Lucio, J. J. D. (2001), “Growth and Welfare State in the EU: A Causality Analysis”, Public Choice, 109, 55 - 68.

Johansen, S. ve Juselius, K. (1990), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration - with Application to the Demand for Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169-210.

Kar, M. ve Taban, S. (2003): “Kamu Harcama Çeşitlerinin Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Etkileri”, Ankara Üniversitesi, Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, 58(3): 145-170.

Kelly, T. (1997), “Public Expenditure and Growth”, Journal of Development Studies, 34 (1), 60-84.

Knowles, S. ve Owen, D. (1995), “Health Capital and Cross-Country Cariation in Income per Capita in the Mankiw–Romer–Weil Model”, Economics Letters, 48, 99–106.

Knowles, S. ve Owen, D (1997), “Education and Health in an Effective Labour Empirical Growth Model”, Economic Record, 73 (3), 14–28.

Korpi, W. (1985),“Economic Growth and the Welfare System: Leaky Bucket or Irrigation System?”, European Sociological Review, 1, 97-118.

Lee, C. C. ve Chang, C. P. (2006), “Social Security Expenditure and GDP in OECD Countries: A Cointegrated Panel Analysis”, International Economic Journal, 20(3), 303-320.

Li, H. ve Huang, L. (2009), “Health, Education and Economic Growth in China: Empirical Findings and Implications”, China Economic Review, 20, 374-387.

Lucas, R. E. (1988), “On the Mechanics of Economic Development”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 22, 3–42.

Mankiw, G. N., Romer, D. ve Weil, D. N. (1992), “A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107, 407-437.

Mayer, D., Mora, H., Cermeno, R., Barona, A. B.ve Duryeau, S. (2001) “Health, Growth and Income Distribution in Latin America and the Caribbean: A Study of Determinants and Regional Local Behaviour”, Investment in Health: Social and Economic Returns içinde Washington, DC: Pan American Health Organization.

McCallum, J. ve Blais, A. (1987), “Government, Special Interest Groups and Economic Growth”, Public Choice, 54: 3–18.

Mushkin, S. J. (1962), “Health as an Investment”, Journal of Political Economy, 70,129–157.

OECD, Social Expenditure Database (SOCX), www.oecd.org/els/social/expenditure

OECD (2009a), Society at a Glance, Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development Publication.

OECD (2009b), Health at a Glance, Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development Publication.

OECD (2009c), Education at a Glance, Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development Publication.

Pindyck, S. R. ve Rubinfield, L. D. (1991), Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts, McGraw-Hill Company.

Pesaran, M. H. ve Shin, Y. (1998), “Generalized Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models”, Economic Letters, 58(1), 17-29.

Romer, P. M. (1986), “Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth”, The Journal of Political Economy, 94(5), 1002-1037.

Romer, P. M. (1990), “Endogenous Technological Change”, Journal of Political Economy, 98, S71-S102.

Solow, R. M. (1956), “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70, 65-94.

Sharma, S. (1996), Applied Multivariate Techniques, New York: John Wiley&Sons, Inc.

Solow, R. M. (1970), Growth Theory: An Exposition, New York: Oxford University Press.

Uzawa, H. (1965), “Optimum Technical Change in an Aggregative Model of Economic Growth”, International Economic Review, 6, 18–31.

Ward, J. H. (1963), “Hierarchical Grouping to Optimise an Objective Function”, American Statistical Association Journal, 58, 236–244.

Yılmaz, G. A. (2005), Sosyal Devlet ve Sosyal Harcamalar, İstanbul: Arıkan Kitap.

Zon, A. H. van ve Muysken, J. (1997), “Health, Education and Endogenous Growth”, Merit Research Memorandum, 1997-2009.