Kamu Borç Yönetimine Mikro Bakış: Optimal Portföy Oluşumu

Kamu borç yönetimi belirli bir zamanda ve risk düzeyinde kamu borçlanma maliyetlerini minimize eden bir strateji oluşturma sürecidir. Bu çalışmanın amacı 2005:01-2017:12 dönemi için farklı ekonomik konjonktürler kapsamında Türkiye’de optimal kamu borç portföyünün nasıl oluşturulması gerektiğini belirlemektir. Elde edilen sonuçlar optimal portföy oluşumu için ülke risk priminin yüksek olduğu dönemlerde vade oranının kısaltılması, sabit faizli iç borçlanma senetlerinin oranının artırılması ve değişken faizli borçlanma senetlerinin payının azaltılması gerektiğini göstermektedir. Ülke risk priminin düşük olduğu dönemlerde ise vade oranının uzatılması, TL cinsi sabit faizli ve TÜFE endeksli senetlerin payının artırılması ve değişken faizli borçlanma senetlerinin payının azaltılması gerektiğini göstermektedir.

Micro-Perspective on Public Debt Management: Creating an Optimal Portfolio

Public debt management is a strategy formulation process minimizing public borrowing costs at a certain risk level at a given time. The aim of this study is to determine how to create optimal public debt portfolio in Turkey over the period of 2005:01-2017:12 when the country is in various conjunctural periods. The results of the analysis indicate that in order for the public debt portfolio to be managed optimally where the country risk premium is high, maturity should be shortened, the share of domestic fixed rate bonds should be increased while the share of floating rate bonds should be reduced. However, where the country risk premium is low, maturity should be extended, the shares of domestic fixed rate bonds and CPI indexed bonds should be increased, while the share of floating rate bonds should be reduced.

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