SEYFETTİN ERDOĞAN, Çağrı.Durmuş YILDRIM, HAKAN GÜNEŞ

Enflasyon hedeflemesi stratejisi makroekonomik performans üzerinde etkili midir

Enflasyon hedeflemesi, fiyat istikrarını sağlamaya yönelik modern bir para politikası stratejisidir. Özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerde henüz yeni bir uygulama olması nedeni ile literatürde daha çok teorisi ve uygulanabilirliği ele alınmaktadır. Oysa enflasyon hedeflemesi stratejisinin nihai hedefi, makro ekonomik performansı pozitif yönde artırmaktır. Bu çalışmada enflasyon hedeflemesinin makroekonomik performans üzerindeki etkisi, enflasyon hedeflemesi stratejisini uygulayan yirmi iki ülke için 1970-2007 dönemi esas alınarak Pooled regresyon modeli ile test edilmiştir. Ampirik analiz sonucunda ele alınan dönem için enflasyon hedeflemesinin ekonomik büyüme oranı ve büyüme volatilitesi üzerinde doğrudan bir etkiye sahip olmadığı, buna karşın enflasyon ve enflasyon volatilitesi üzerinde azaltıcı yönde etkili olduğu görülmüştür.

Does the inflation targeting strategy have an effect on macroeconomic performance?

The inflation targeting strategy is a modern monetary policy strategy that provides price stability. Therefore it is a just new application, inflation targeting strategy is mostly discussed theoretically and its applicability in the literature. However, the ultimate purpose of inflation targeting strategy is to affect macroeconomic performance positively. In this study, the effect of inflation targeting strategy on the macroeconomic performance was tested by pooled regression model for twenty two countries which were carrying out this strategy between the 1970- 2007 periods. Empirical analysis results indicate that the inflation targeting has no direct effect on the economic growth rate and its volatility; on the other hand it has a positive effect on the level of inflation and its volatility

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