ABİDİN ÖNCEL, MUSTAFA KIRCA, VEYSEL İNAL

Elektrik Tüketimi ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: OECD Ülkelerine Yönelik Zamanla Değişen Panel Nedensellik Analizi

Enerji kullanımı ile ekonomik büyüme (GSHM) arasındaki ilişki özellikle 1970'lerde yaşanan petrol kriziyle birlikte araştırmacıların daha çok ilgisini çekmiştir. İki değişken arasındaki ilişki literatürde genellikle büyüme hipotezi, korumacılık hipotezi, geri besleme hipotezi ve yansızlık hipotezi çerçevesinde değerlendirilmektedir. 22 OECD ülkesi için elektrik tüketimi ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin 1990-2011 dönemine ait yıllık verilerle incelendiği bu çalışmada zamanla değişen panel nedensellik analizi kullanılmıştır. Analiz sonuçlarına göre 1991-2005 döneminde elektrik tüketiminden ekonomik büyümeye, 1995-2009 döneminde ise ekonomik büyümeden elektrik tüketimine doğru nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Dolayısıyla her iki dönemin ortak paydası olan 1995-2005 döneminde geri besleme hipotezinin gerçekleştiği de söylenebilir.

Relationship Between Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: Time-varying Panel Causality Analysis for OECD Countries

The relationship between energy use and economic growth has attracted researchers' interest more compared to past, especially in oil crises period1970s. The relationship between two variables is generally assessed with literature in the context of growth hypothesis, conservation hypothesis, feedback hypothesis and neutrality hypothesis. This study using yearly data covering 1990-2011 period examines the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth (GNP) for 22 OECD countries, by using the varying panel casuality analysis. The results show that, causality runs from electricity consumption to economic growth between 1991-2005 and causality runs from economic growth to electricity consumption between 1995-2009. Therefore, the period between 1995-2005, which is the overlapping period (of the two determined relationships) has feedback hypothesis.

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