SELÇUK ÇAĞRI ESENER, AHMET EMRE BİBER, BURAK DARICI

Orta Gelir Seviyesindeki Ülkelerde Kamusal Risk, Bürokratik Yapı ve Fiziki Sermayenin Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri

Bu çalışmada kamusal risk göstergelerinin ve fiziki sermaye değişkenlerinin ekonomik büyüme üzerine etkisi orta gelir seviyesindeki ülkeler için test edilmiştir. Türkiye ile birlikte 33 gelişmekte olan ülkenin 1999-2014 dönemi verileri statik ve dinamik panel veri yöntemleri kullanılarak analize tabi tutulmuş ve büyüme üzerine güçlü etkileri olduğu saptanmıştır. Çalışmanın bulgularına göre; hükümet politikalarının istikrarı, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, gayrisafi sabit sermaye oluşumu ve dışa açıklığı simgeleyen ihracat/GSYİH oranındaki artışlar büyümeyi istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve pozitif yönde etkilemektedir. Ampirik literatürde benzer sonuçlarla karşılaşılmasına karşın genel teorik beklentilerin aksine, kurumsal yapıların işlerliği ve bürokrasi kalite düzeyindeki azalışlar adı geçen ekonomilerde büyümeyi pozitif yönde etkilemektedir.

The Effects of Public Risk Factors, Presence of Bureaucracy and the Formation of Fixed Capital on Economic Growth in the Middle Income Countries

In this study, the effects of both public risks and physical capital variables on growth of middle-income countries (MICs) were analysed. The annual data for 33 MICs including Turkey were examined by using static and dynamic panel data methods for the period between 1999-2014 and according to the results, it is found that both public risk indicators and physical capital variables have strong effects on growth. Hence, stability of government policies, foreign direct investment, gross fixed capital formation and ratio of exports to GDP have positive effects on growth. Contrary to the theoretical expectations but consistent with some literature, a decrease in the level of institutional strength and bureaucratic quality have favourable effects on growth in analysed economies.

___

Acemoğlu, D. ve Zilibotti, F. (1997), "Was Prometheus Unbound by Chance? Risk, Diversification and Growth", Journal of Political Economy, 105(4), 709-51.

Acemoğlu D., Johnson, S. ve Robinson, J.A. (2001), "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation", American Economic Review, 91.

Acemoğlu, D. (2003), "Root Causes. A Historical Approach to Assessing the Role of Institutions in Economic Development", Finance and Developments (June), 27-30.

Adams, S. (2009), "Foreign Direct Investment, Domestic İnvestment, and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa", Journal of Policy Modeling, 31, 939-949.

Arellano, M. (2003), Panel Data Econometrics, Oxford University Press, New York.

Arellano, M. ve Bond, S. (1991), "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations", Review of Economic Studies, 58, 277-297.

Arellano, M. ve Bover, O. (1995), "Another Look at The Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models", Journal of Econometrics, 68, 29-51.

Asteriou, D. ve Hall, S.G. (2007), Applied Econometrics: A Modern Approach Using E-views and Microfit, Revised Ed., Palgrave Macmillan, New York.

Ayal, B.E. ve Karras, G. (1996), "Bureaucracy, Investment and Growth", Economics Letters, 51, 233-239.

Baltagi, B.H. (2013), Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, Fifth Edition, John Wiley ve Sons, Ltd., Chichester.

Barro, R.J. (1991), "Economic Growth in Cross Section of Countries", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106, 407-444.

Barro, R.J. ve Sala-I-Martin, X. (1995), "Capital Mobility in Neoclassical Models of Growth", American Economic Review, 85, 103-115.

Blomstrom, M., Lipsey, R.E. ve Zejan, M. (1996), "Is Fixed Investment the Key to Economic Growth?", The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 111:269-276.

Blundell, R. ve Bond, S. (1998), "Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models", Journal of Econometrics, 87, 115-143.

Brooks, C. (2008), Introductory Econometrics for Finance, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

Bond, S., Leblebicioğlu, A. ve Schiantarelli, F. (2010), "Capital Accumulation and Growth: A New Look At the Empirical Evidence" Journal of Applied Econometrics, 25, 1073-1099.

Borensztein, E., De Gregorio, J. ve Lee, J-W. (1998), "How Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect Economic Growth?", Journal of International Economics, 45:115-135.

Calvo, M.B. ve Robles, B.S. (2003), "Foreign Direct İnvestment, Economic Freedom and Growth: New Evidence from Latin-America", European Journal of Political Economy, 19(3), 529-45.

Coase, R.H. (1937), "The Nature of the Firm", Econometrica, 4, 386-405.

Colclough, C. ve Manor, J. (1991), States or Markets: Neo-liberalism and the Development Policy Debate, Clarendom, Oxford.

Caves, R.E. (1996), Multinational Enterprise and Economic Analysis, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

De Long, J.B. ve Summers, L.H. (1991), "Equipment Investment and Economic Growth", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110 (2), 445-502.

De Long, J.B. ve Summers, L.H. (1992), "Equipment Investment and Economic Growth: How Strong Is the Nexus?" Brooking Papers on Economic Activity, 2, 157-211.

De Mello, L.R. (1996), Foreign Direct Investment, International Knowledge Transfers, Endogenous Growth: Time Series Evidence, Department of Economics, University of Kent, United Kingdom.

De Mello, L.R. (1997), "Foreign Direct ønvestment in Developing Countries and Growth: A Selective Survey", The Journal Development Studies, 34(1), 1-34.

De Mello, L.R. (1999), "Foreign Direct Investment-Led Growth: Evidence from Time Series and Panel Data", Oxford Economic Papers, 51, 133-54.

Devarajan, S. ve Nabi, I. (2006), "Economic Growth in South Asia: Promising, Unequalising and Sustainable?", Economic and Political Weekly, 41(33), 3573-3580.

Dunning, J.H. (1993), Multinational Enterprises and the Global Economy. Reading, United Kingdom: AddissonWesley Publishing Company.

Dunne, J.P., Perlo-Freeman, S. ve Soydan, A. (2004), "Military Expenditure and Debt in Small Industrialised Economies: A Panel Analysis", Defence and Peace Economics, 15(2), 125-132.

Dünya Bankas? (1993), The East Asian Miracle: Economic Growth and Public Policy, Oxford University Press: USA.

Dünya Bankas? (2001), Global Development Finance 2001: Building Coalitions for Effective Development Finance, www.worldbank.org

Easterly, W. ve Levine, R. (2002), "Tropics, Germs, and Crops: How Endowments Influence Economic Development", Journal of Monetary Economics, 50, 3-39.

Eberhardt, M. (2011), Panel Time-Series Modeling: New Tools for Analyzing XT Data, http://www.stata.com/meeting/uk11/abstracts/UK11 _eberhardt.pdf (Eriúim Tarihi: 28.2.2017)

Edwards, S. (1992), "Trade Orientation, Distortions and Growth in Developing Countries", Journal of Development Economics, 39, 31-57.

Esener, S.Ç. (2013), Geliúmekte Olan Ülkelerde ve Türkiye'de D?ú Borçlanman?n Belirleyicilerinin øncelenmesi:1980-2010, Maliye Bakanl?÷?, Strateji Geliútirme Baúkanl?÷? Yay?nlar?, Hermes Matbaac?l?k, Ankara Yay?n No:2013/424.

Esener, S.Ç. (2016), "Türkiye de Aileden Biri Olsayd?: Maliye Politikas?n?n Seçilmiú Avrupa Birli÷i Üyesi Ülkelerde ve Türkiye'de Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri", Journal of Life Economics, 3(3), 119-138 (Doi:10.15637, Yay?n No:2869422).

Esener, S.Ç. ve øpek, E. (2015), Expanding Effects of Military Expenditures on External Debt in Developing Countries, Journal of Business, Economics ve Finance, Aral?k, (4), 617-632.

Evans, P. ve Rauch, J.E. (1999), "Bureaucracy and Growth: A CrossNational Analysis of the Effects of 'Weberian' State Structures on Economic Growth", American Sociological Review, 64(5), 748-765.

Fan, E.X. (2002), "Technological Spillovers from Foreign Direct Investment- A Survey", Working Paper No. 33, Asian Development Bank, Philippines.

Frye, T. ve Shleifer, A. (1997), The Invisible Hand and the Grabbing Hand, AEA Papers, May, 87(2), 354-358.

Glaeser, E.L., Kallal, H.D., Scheinkman, J.A. ve Shcleifer, A. (1992), "Growth in Cities", Journal of Political Economy, 100(6), 1126-1152.

Greene, W.H. (2003), Econometric Analysis, 5th Edition, Prentice Hall, London.

Grossman, G. ve Helpman, E. (1991), Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy, Cambridge: MIT Press.

Gibescu, O. (2010), Does the Gross Fixed Capital Formation Represent a Factor for Supporting the Economic Growth? MPRA Paper No. 50135.

Hall, R.E. ve Jones, C.I. (1996), "The Productivity of Nations", NBER Working Paper No. 5812, Cambridge, MA: NBER.

Hall, R.E. ve Jones, C.I. (1999), "Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker Than Others?", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114(1), 83-116.

Hayashi, F. (2000), Econometrics, Princeton University Press, New Jersey.

Hsiao, F.S.T. ve Hsiao, M-C.W. (2006), "FDI, Exports, and GDP in East and Southeast Asia-Panel Data Versus Time-Series Causality Analyses", Journal of Asian Economics, 17(6), 1082-1106.

Hong, E. ve Sun, L. (2011), Foreign Direct Investment and Total Factor Productivity in China: a Spatial Dynamic Panel Analysis, Oxf. Bull. Econ. Stat. 73(6), 771-791.

Huntington, S. (1968), Political Order in Changing Societies, New Haven and London: Yale University Press.

Jones, C.I. (1995), "Time Series Tests of Endogenous Growth Models" Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(2), 495-525.

Kholdy, S. (1995), "Causality Between Foreign Investment and Spillover Efficiency", Applied Economics, 27,745-49.

Knutsen, C.H. (2012), Democracy, State Capacity, and Economic Growth, World Development, 43 March, 1-18.

Leff, N. (1964), "Economic Development Through Bureaucratic Corruption", American Behavioral Scientist, 8 (3), 1964:8-14.

Li, D. (2002), "Is the AK Model Still Alive? The Long-Run Relation between Growth and Investment Re-Examined" Canadian Journal of Economics, 35, 92-114.

Lim, E. (2001), "Determinants of, and the Relation Between, Foreign Direct ønvestment and Growth: A Summary of the Recent Literature", IMF Working Paper WP/01/175, Middle Eastern Department.

Lipsey, R.E. (1999), The Role of FDI in International Capital Flows, In M. Feldstein (Eds.), International Capital Flows. Chicago University Press: Chicago. 307-331.

Lucas, R.E. (1988), "On the Mechanics of Economic Development", Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(1), 3-42

Mankiw, N.G., David, R. ve David, N.W. (1992), "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth", Quarterly Journal of Economics, CVII, 407-438.

McLean, B. ve Shrestha, S. (2002), "International Financial Liberalization and Economic Growth", Research Discussion Paper 03, Reserve Bank of Australia.

Mileva, E. (2007), Using Arellano-Bond Dynamic Panel GMM Estimators in Stata: Tutorial with Examples Using Stata 9.0, Economics Dept., Fordham University.

Nath, H.K. (2009), "Trade, Foreign Direct Invest, and Growth: Evidence from Transition Economies", Comparative Economic Studies, 51, 20-50.

North, D.C. (1997), The Contribution of the New Institutional Economics to and Understanding of the Transition Problem, UNU/WIDER (March) Annual Lecture1.

North, D.C. (2002), Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance, New York: Cambridge University Press.

North, D.C. ve Weingast, B.R. (1989), "Constitutions and Commitment: the Evolution of Institutions Governing Public Choice in SeventeenthCentury England", Journal of Economic History, 49, 803-32.

Obstfeld, M. (1994), "Evaluating Risky Consumption Paths: The Role of Inter-temporal Substitutability", European Economic Review, 38(7), 1471-1486.

Omri A. ve Kahouli, B. (2014), "The Nexus between Foreign ønvestment, Domestic Capital and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from the MENA Region", Research in Economics, 68, 25-63.

Pigou, A. (1938), The Economics of Welfare, London, McMillan & Co.

Przeworski, A. ve Limongi, F. (1993), "Political Regimes and Economic Growth", Journal of Economic Perspectives, 7, 51-69.

Pugel, A.T. (2007), International Economics. McGraw-Hill Irwin: New York, USA.

Rauch, E.J. (1995), "Bureaucracy, Infrastructure and Economic Growth: Evidence from US Cities During the Progressive Era", American Economic Review, 85(4), 968-979.

Rivera-Batiz, L.A. ve Romer, P.M. (1991), "International Trade with Endogenous Technological Change", European Economic Review, 35, 971-1004.

Romer, P.M. (1986), "Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth", Journal of Political Economy, 95(5), 1002-1037.

Romer, P.M. (1990), "Endogenous Growth and Technical Change", Journal of Political Economy, 99, 807-27.

Rodrik, D. (1999), Where Did All the Growth Go?, NBER Working Paper, No.W6350.

Rodrik, D. (2000), Institutions For High-Quality Growth: What They Are and How To Acquire Them, NBER Working Paper, 7540.

Rodrik, D. (2003), "The Primacy of Institutions (and what this does and does not mean)", Finance and Developments (3), 31-34.

Sass, M. (2003), "Competitiveness and Economic Policies Related to Foreign Direct Investment", Hungary Ministry of Finance Working Paper No.3, available at: www.pm.gov.hu/ Dokumentumok/Seo/fuzetek.htm (accessed February 12, 2007)

Saint-Paul, G. (1992), "Technological Choice, Financial Markets, and Economic Development", European Economic Review, 36(4), 763-781.

Sen, K. (2013), "The Political Dynamics of Economic Growth", World Development, July, 41,

Shleifer, A. ve Vishny, R.W. (1993), "Corruption", The Quarterly Journal of Economics, No.3 (Aug.), 108, 599-617.

Shleifer, A. ve Vishny, R.W. (1998), The Grabbing Hand, Government Pathologies and Their Cures, Harvard University Press.

Solow, R. (1956), "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth", Quarterly Journal of Economics, No.1, 70, 65-94.

Temple, J. (1998). "Equipment Investment and the Solow Model" Oxford Economic Papers, 50, 39-62.

Temple, J. (1999). "New Growth Evidence" Journal of Economic Literature, 37(1), 112-156.

Ulubaúo÷lu, M.A. ve Doucouliagos, C. (2004), Institutions and Economic Growth: A Systems Approach, Melbourne: SAEF, Deakin University.

Young, A. (1995), "The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience" Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(3), 641-680.

Zhang, K.H.L. (2001), "Does Foreign Direct ønvestment Promote Economic Growth? Evidence from East Asia and Latin America" Contemporary Economic Policy, 19, 175-85.

Wagle, U.R. (2007), "Are Economic Liberalization and Equality Compatible? Evidence from South Asia", World Development, 35(11), 1836-1818.

Williamson, O.E. (1975), Markets and Hierarchies: Analysis and Antitrust Implications, New York: The Free Press.

Windmeijer, F. (2005), "A Finite Sample Correction for the Variance of Linear Efficient Two-Step GMM Estimators", Journal of Econometrics, 126, 25-51.

Wooldridge, J.M. (2002), Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data, The MIT Press, Massachusetts.