Ekonomik büyümeyi artırmak ve demokrasi düzeyini yükseltmek birçokülkenin temel amaçlarından biridir. Dolayısıyla, ekonomik büyüme vedemokrasi arasındaki ilişkinin doğasını, ekonomik büyüme içindemokrasinin gerekli olup olmadığını ve demokrasinin ekonomik büyümeyietkileyip etkilemediğini açıklamak önem taşımaktadır. Bu çalışmada, 2006-2018 verileri ile kişi başı GSYİH büyüme oranı ve Bertelsmann Dönüşümİndeksi (BTI) verileri kullanılarak Balkan ülkeleri için ekonomik büyümedemokrasi ilişkisi panel Granger nedensellik testi ile analiz edilmiştir. Sonuçolarak, demokrasi indeksleri, kişi başı GSYİH büyümesi değişkenininGranger nedenidir. Ayrıca, demokrasi indeksleri ile kişi başı GSYİHbüyümesi değişkenleri arasında ters yönlü ilişki mevcuttur.
Increasing economic growth and raising the level of democracy is one of the main goals of many countries. Therefore, it is important to explain the nature of the correlation between economic growth and democracy, whether democracy is necessary for economic growth, and whether democracy affects economic growth. In this study, the correlation between economic growth and democracy in Balkan countries was analyzed with the panel Granger causality test by using 2006-2018 data, GDP per capita growth rate and Bertelsmann Transformation Index (BTI) data. As a result, democracy indices are Granger cause of the GDP growth per capita variable. In addition, there is an inverse relationship between democracy indexes and per capita GDP growth variables
___
Acemoğlu, D., Naidu, S., Restrepo, P. ve Robinson, J.A. (2019), “Democracy Does Cause Growth”, Journal of Political Economy, 127(1), 47-100.
Aisen, A. ve Veiga, F.J. (2013), “How Does Political Instability Affect Economic Growth?”, European Journal of Political Economy, 29, 151-167.
Balfour, R. ve Stratulat, C. (2011), “The Democratic Transformation of the Balkans”. EPC Issue Paper, 66, 1-61.
Baltagi, B. (2013), Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, John Wiley & Sons.
Barro, R.J. (1996), “Democracy and Growth”, Journal of Economic Growth, 1(1), 1-27.
Baum, M.A. ve Lake, D.A. (2003), “The Political Economy of Growth: Democracy and Human Capital”, American Journal of Political Science, 47(2), 333-347.
Becker P., Raveloson, J.A. (2008), What is Democracy?, First Edition, Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Humburg.
Beşkaya, A. ve Manan, Ö. (2009), “Ekonomik Özgürlükler ve Demokrasi ile Ekonomik Performans Arasındaki İlişkinin Zaman Serileri ile Analizi: Türkiye Örneği”, Zonguldak Karaelmas Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 5(10), 47-76.
Bhagwati, J.N. (2002), “Democracy and Development: Cruel Dilemma or Symbiotic Relationship”, Review of Development Economics, 6(2), 151-162.
Bozkurt, E., Altıner, A. ve Toktaş, Y. (2018), “Democracy and Economic Growth: Evidence from Emerging Market Economies”, Economics, Finance and Politics, 13(14), 15-32.
Breitung, J. (2001), “The Local Power of Some Unit Root Tests for Panel Data”, J. Breitung (der.), Advances in Econometrics içinde, 161-177.
BTI (2021a), Political Transformation, https://www.bti-project.org/en/index/ political-transformation.html
BTI (2021b), Methodology, https://www.bti-project.org/en/ methodology.html
Choi, I. (2001), “Unit Root Tests For Panel Data”, Journal of Iternational Money and Finance, 20(2), 249-272.
Comeau, L. (2003), “Democracy and Growth: A Relationship Revisited”, Eastern Economic Journal, 29(1), 1-21.
De Haan, J. ve Siermann, C.L. (1995), “A sensitivity Analysis of the Impact of Democracy on Economic Growth. Empirical Economics, 20(2), 197-215.
Doğan, A. (2005), “Demokrasi ve Ekonomik Gelişme”, Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 25, 1-19.
Doucouliagos, H. ve Ulubasoglu, M.A. (2008), “Democracy and Economic Growth: A Meta-Analysis,” American Journal of Political Science, 52(1), 61-83.
Dumitrescu, E.I. ve Hurlin, C. (2012), “Testing for Granger Non-causality in Heterogeneous Panels”, Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1450-1460.
Esposto, A., ve Zaleski, P. (1999), “Economic Freedom and the Quality of Life: An Empirical Analysis”, Constitutional Political Economy, 10(2), 185-197.
Gerring, J., Bond, P., Barndt, W.T. ve Moreno, C. (2005), Democracy and Economic Growth: A Historical Perspective. World Politics., 57 (3), 323-364.
Granger, C.W. (1969), “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods”, Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 424-438.
Granger, C.W., Newbold, P. ve Econom, J. (1974), “Spurious Regressions in Econometrics”, Baltagi, B.H. A Companion of Theoretical Econometrics, 557-61.
Gründler, K. ve Krieger, T. (2016), “Democracy and Growth: Evidence from a Machine Learning Indicator”, Eur. J. Political Econ., 45, 85-107.
Hadri, K. (2000), “Testing for Stationarity in Heterogeneous Panel Data”, The Econometrics Journal, 3(2), 148-161.
Harris, R.D.ve Tzavalis, E. (1999), “Inference for Unit Roots in Dynamic Panels Where the Time Dimension is Fixed”, Journal of Econometrics, 91(2), 201-226.
Heo, U. ve Tan, C.A. (2001), “Democracy and Economic Growth: A Causal Analysis, Comparative Politics”, New York, 33(04), 463-473.
Hobbes, T. (1967), Leviathan, Ed. Macpherson, Crawford B. Harmondsworth, UK: Penguin, (original work published 1651).
Holtz-Eakin, D., Newey, W. ve Rosen, H.S. (1988), “Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data”, Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1371-1395.
Huntington, S. (1968), The Political Order in Changing Societies, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Im, K.S., Pesaran, M.H. ve Shin, Y. (2003), “Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels”, Journal of Econometrics, 115 (1), 53-74.
Klomp, J. ve de Haan, J. (2009), “Political Institutions and Economic Volatility,” European Journal of Political Economy, 25(3), 311-326.
Landau, D. (1986), “Government and Economic Growth in the Less Developed Countries: An Empirical Study for 1960-1980”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 35(1), 35-75.
Levin, A., Lin, C.-F.ve Chu, C.-S.J. (2002), “Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite-Sample Properties”, Journal of Econometrics, 108(1), 1-24.
Lipset, S.M. (1959), “Some Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political Legitimacy”, American Political Science Review, 53(01), 69-105.
Maddala, G.S. ve Wu, S. (1999), “A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and A New Simple Test”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61(1), 631-652.
Madsen, J.B., Raschky, P.A. ve Skali, A. (2015), “Does Democracy Drive Income in the World, 1500-2000?”, European Economic Review, 78, 175-195.
Minier, J.A. (1998), “Democracy and Growth: Alternative Approaches”, Journal of Economic Growth, 3(3), 241-266. Murtin, F. ve Wacziarg, R. (2014), “The Democratic Transition”, Journal of Economic Growth, 19(2), 141-181.
Narayan, P.K., Narayan, S. ve Smyth, R. (2011), “Does Democracy Facilitate Economic Growth or Does Economic Growth Facilitate Democracy? An Empirical Study of Sub-Saharan Africa”, Economic Modelling, 28, 900-910.
Olson, M. (1993), “Dictatorship, Democracy, and Development”, American Political Science Review, 87(3), 567-576.
Papaioannou, E. ve Siourounis, G. (2008), “Democratisation and Growth,” Economic Journal, 118(532), 1520-1551.
Przeworski, A. ve Limongi, F. (1993), “Political Regimes and Economic Growth”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 7(3), 51-69.
Przeworski, A., Alvarez, M.E., Chiebub, J.A. ve Limongi, F. (2000), Democracy and Development: Political Institutions and Well-being in the World, 1950-1990, New York, Cambridge University Press.
Rodrik, D. (1997), “Democracy and Economic Performance”, Harvard University, December, 14(1999), 707-38.
Rodrik, D. ve Wacziarg, R. (2005), “Do Democratic Transitions Produce Bad Economic Outcomes?”, American Economic Review, 95(2), 50-55.
Sikk, A. (2020), Trouble at the Top-BTI 2020 Regional Report East-Central and Southeast Europe, Gütersloh, Bertelsmann Stiftung.
Sirowy, L. ve Inkeles, A. (1990), “The Effects of Democracy on Economic Growth and Inequality: A Review”, Studies in Comparative International Development, 25(1), 126-157.
Song, T., Berger, P.D. ve Kim, H. (2017), “Democracy and Economic Growth”, Journal of Business Management and Economics, 5(06), 14-24.
Tatoğlu, F.Y. (2018), Panel Zaman Serileri Analizi, İstanbul, Beta.
Tavares, J. ve Wacziarg, R. (2001), “How Democracy Affects Growth”, European Economic Review, 45(8), 1341–1378.
The World Bank (2021), GDP per capita growth (annual %), https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG