Mesut KARAKAÙ, Hüseyin İNCE, Ahmet Ekrem KAYA

Büyüme İlişkisinin Sektörel Analizi", Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar

Bu çalışmada döviz kurlarının Türk-Rus ikili ticareti üzerine etkisi araç para birimi yaklaşımıyla 2010:A1-2016:A9 periyodu için aylık veriler kullanılarak ilk defa incelenmektedir. Çalışmada hem Türkiye'nin Rusya'ya ihracatının hem de Rusya'dan ithalatının; döviz kurları, kur volatiliteleri, baltık kuru yük endeksi, tüketici fiyat endeksleri ve perakende satış endeksleri ile eş bütünleşme ilişkisine sahip olduğu görülmektedir. Uzun dönemde araç para birimi ile ayrıştırılan kur, ruble ve Türk lirası (TL) volatilite artışı kanalıyla ihracat ve ithalatımızı pozitif biçimde etkilemektedir. Kısa dönemde ise TL volatilite artışı ihracatımızı artırmaktadır.

A Time Series Experience for 17 African Countries", Energy Policy

This is the first study investigating the effect of exchange rates on bilateral trade between Turkey and Russia by using monthly data for the period 2010:M1-2016:M9 via vehicle currency approach. In this study, we find both Turkish exports to Russia and imports from Russia are cointegrated with exchange rate, exchange rate volatilities, Baltic Dry Index, consumer price indexes and retail sales indexes. In the long run, exchange rate decomposed by means of a vehicle currency affects our exports and imports positively via an increase in ruble and Turkish lira (TL) volatility. In the short run, an increase in TL volatility boosts our exports.

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