VERGİ YÜKÜNÜN VE YAPISININ EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ: OECD ÜLKELERİ İÇİN PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Çalışmada doğrudan ve dolaylı vergiler ile vergi yükünün ekonomik büyümeüzerindeki etkisi, 30 OECD ülkesi için 2000-2017 dönemi kapsamında panelveri analizi ile araştırılmıştır. Panel veri analizi öncesi modelde yatay kesitbağımlılığının varlığı araştırılmış ve buna paralel olarak panel birim kök testiuygulanmıştır. Panel birim kök testi sonuçlarına göre tüm değişkenler düzeydedurağan bulunmuştur. Sonrasında uygun modelin belirlenmesi amacıylaF-testi, olabilirlik oran testi ve Hausmann testi uygulanmıştır. Sonuç olaraksabit etkiler modeli seçilmiştir. Uygun modelin belirlenmesi sonrası değişenvaryans, otokorelasyon ve yatay kesit bağımlılık testleri uygulanmıştır.Bu testlerin sonuçlarına göre modelde değişen varyans, otokorelasyon veyatay kesit bağımlılığı bulunduğundan Driscoll Kraay standart hatalı modelkullanılarak sorunlar çözülmüştür. Sonuç olarak modelde yer alan doğrudanvergi gelirlerinin kamu gelirleri içerisindeki payında meydana gelen artışlarınekonomik büyüme üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve pozitif etkiye sahipolduğu, dolaylı vergi gelirlerinin kamu gelirleri içerisindeki payı ile vergiyükünün ise ekonomik büyüme üzerinde pozitif ancak istatistiksel olarakanlamsız etkilerinin olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

EFFECTS OF TAX BURDEN AND STRUCTURE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: PANEL DATA ANALYSIS FOR OECD COUNTRIES

In the study, the effect of direct and indirect taxes and tax burden on economic growth was investigated by panel data analysis for 30 OECD countries within the period of 2000-2017. Before panel data analysis, the existence of horizontal cross-section dependence was investigated and parallel to this, panel unit root test was applied. According to the panel unit root test results, all variables were found stationary at the level. Then, F-test, likelihood ratio test and Hausmann test were applied to determine the appropriate model. As a result, fixed effects model was chosen. After determining the appropriate model, changing variance, autocorrelation and horizontal cross-section dependency tests were applied. According to the results of these tests, the problems were solved by using Driscoll Kraay standard faulty model since the model has changing variance, autocorrelation and horizontal cross-section dependency. As a result, it was determined that the increases in the share of direct tax revenues in public revenues in the model had a statistically significant and positive effect on economic growth, while the share of indirect tax revenues in public revenues and the tax burden had positive but statistically insignificant effects on economic growth.

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