Botsvana ve Güney Afrika'da Dış Borç, Yatırım ve Finansal Gelişme: Çok Değişkenli Nedensel Analiz

Bu makale, 1980-2020 yılları arasında Botsvana ve Güney Afrika'da dış borç, finansal gelişme ve yatırım arasındaki nedensel ilişkiyi değerlendirmek için çok değişkenli bir Granger-nedensellik modeli kullanmaktadır. Çalışma kesintili değişkenler olarak tasarruf, ticaret ve ekonomik büyümeyi içermektedir. Otoregresif dağıtılmış gecikme (ARDL) sınır testi yaklaşımının kullanılması; ampirik sonuçlar, hem Botsvana hem de Güney Afrika için dış borç ile finansal gelişme ve/veya yatırım arasında belirgin bir kısa ve uzun vadeli Granger nedensellik ilişkisi olmadığını ortaya koymaktadır. Bununla birlikte, Botsvana için yatırımdan finansal gelişmeye doğru kısa vadeli tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi vardır. Güney Afrika için ise bunun tersi doğrudur. Yani finansal gelişmeden yatırıma doğru kısa ve uzun dönem tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi vardır. Botsvana için politika anlamı, kısa vadede reel sektörü canlandırmak; yatırımı teşvik etmek için muazzam çabalar tavsiye edilir. Botsvana için diğer sonuçlar, yatırım, tasarruf ve ekonomik büyümenin eş zamanlı teşvikini desteklemektedir çünkü bu değişkenlerin kısa vadeli ve uzun vadeli çift yönlü nedensel bir ilişkisi olduğu bulunmuştur. Güney Afrika için, yatırımı ve ekonomik büyümeyi yönlendiren temel olarak finansal gelişmedir. Bu nedenle, politika hem kısa hem de uzun vadede yatırımı teşvik etmek için finansal gelişmeyi teşvik etmelidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Finansal Gelişme, Dış Borç, Güney Afrika, Botsvana, Yatırım

External Debt, Investment, and Financial Development in Botswana and South Africa: A Multivariate Causal Analysis

This paper employs a multivariate Granger-causality model to evaluate the causal relationship between external debt, financial development, and investment in Botswana and South Africa from 1980–2020. The study includes savings, trade, and economic growth as intermittent variables. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach; empirical results reveal that, for both Botswana and South Africa, there is no distinct short- and long-run Granger-causality relationship between external debt and either financial development and/or investment. However, for Botswana, there is a short-run unidirectional causal relationship from investment to financial development. While for South Africa, the opposite is true. That is, there is a short-run and long-run unidirectional causal relationship from financial development to investment. The policy implication for Botswana is to stimulate the real sector in the short run; immense efforts in promoting investment are recommended. Other results for Botswana support the concurrent promotion of investment, savings, and economic growth because these variables are found to have a short-run and long-run bidirectional causal relationship. For South Africa, it is primarily financial development that drives investment and economic growth. Therefore, policy should promote financial development to stimulate investment, both in the short and long run.

Keywords:

Financial Development, External Debt, Investment, Botswana, South Africa,

PDF

___

AFDB. (2022). Botswana economic outlook, African Development Bank, Viewed 10 October 2022, https://www.afdb.org/en/countries/southern-africa/botswana/botswana-economic-outlook.
AFDB. (2022). South Africa economic outlook, African Development Bank, Viewed 10 October 2022,https://www.afdb.org/en/countries/southern-africa/south-africa/south-africa-economic-outlook.
Afzal, M. (2010). Savings and investment in developing countries: Granger-causality test. Philippine Review of Economics, 44(2), 99-110
Ajisafe, R., Nassar, M., Fatokun, O., Soile, I., & Gidado, O. K. (2006). External debt and foreign private investment in Nigeria: A test for causality. African Economic and Business Review, 4(1), 1109-5609.
Akinboade, O. A. (1998). Financial development and economic growth in Botswana: A test for causality/développement financier et croissance économique au botswana: Un test de causalité. Savings and Development, 331-348.
Amoateng, K., & Amoako-Adu, B. (1996). Economic growth, export, and external debt causality: The case of African countries. Applied Economics, 28(1), 21-27.
Aromolaran, O., & Olebogeng, D. D. (2021). Macroeconomic policy directions in the Southern African Customs Union. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 13(2), 327-360.
Asongu, S. A. (2014). Linkages between investment flows and financial development: Causality evidence from selected African countries. African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, 5(3), 269-299
Aziakpono, M. (2003), Financial intermediation and economic growth in an economic and monetary union: The case of SACU and CMA. Paper presented at the ESSA Conference, Lord Charles Hotel, Somerset West, 19 September 2003.
Aziakpono, M. J. (2011). Financial development and economic growth: Theory and a survey of evidence. Studies in Economics and Econometrics, 35(1), 15-43.
Aziakpono, M., Burger, P., & Du Plessis, S. (2009). Is financial integration a complement or substitute for domestic financial development in a developing country? Evidence from the SACU countries. Studies in Economics and Econometrics, 33(3), 39-67.
Beck, T., Demirgü.-Kunt, A. and Levine, R. (2000). A new database on the structure and development of the financial sector. The World Bank Economic Review, 14(3), 597- 605.
Beck, T., Demirgü.-Kunt, A. and Levine, R. (2010), Financial institutions and markets across countries and over time: the updated financial development and structure database. The World Bank Economic Review, 24(1), 77-92.
Bhattarai, S., Chatterjee, A., & Park, W. Y. (2021). Effects of US quantitative easing on emerging market economies. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 122, 104031.
Butts, H. C. (2009). Short-term external debt and economic growth—Granger-causality: Evidence from Latin America and the Caribbean. The Review of Black political economy, 36(2), 93-111.
Ceicdata.(2021), South Africa External Debt, Ceicdata, viewed, 10 October 2022, https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/botswana/external-debt.
Chandio, A. A., Rehman, A., Jiang, Y., & Joyo, M. A. (2017). Financial development, trade openness and economic growth in Pakistan: A Granger-causality approach. International Journal of Advanced and Applied Sciences, 4(4), 73-80.
Chiwira, O., & Kambeu, E. (2016). Foreign direct investment and economic growth in Botswana: A dynamic causality test. British Journal of Economics, Management & Trade, 11(3), 1-8.
Čihák, M., Demirgüç-Kunt, A., Feyen, E., & Levine, R. (2012). Benchmarking financial systems around the world. World Bank policy research working paper, (6175).
Demirgüç-Kunt, A., & Levine, R. (1996). Stock market development and financial intermediaries: stylized facts. The World Bank Economic Review, 10(2), 291-321.
Duru, I. U. (2021). Trade Liberalization and Economic Growth: The Scenario of the MINT Economies. Economy, 8(2), 35-48.
Dutta, C. B., Haider, M. Z., & Das, D. K. (2017). Dynamics of economic growth, investment, and trade openness: Evidence from Bangladesh. South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, 6(1), 82-104.
Epaphra, M., & Mesiet, W. (2021). The external debt burden and economic growth in Africa: a panel data analysis. Theoretical & Applied Economics, 28(2), 175-206
Fakudze, S. O., Tsegaye, A., & Sibanda, K. (2021). The relationship between financial development and economic growth in Eswatini (formerly Swaziland). African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, 13(1), 15-28
Fandamu, L. D. S. K. H., & Phiri, C. (2017). The impact of external debt on Zambia’s economic growth: An ARDL approach. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 8(8), 55-68.
Gokmenoglu, K., Rafik, R.A.M. (2018). Determinants of External Debt: The Case of Malaysia. Ozatac, N., Gökmenoglu, K. (eds) Emerging Trends in Banking and Finance. Springer Proceedings in Business and Economics. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-01784-2_2
Hossain, S., & Mitra, R. (2013). The Determinants of Economic Growth in Africa: A Dynamic Causality and Panel Cointegration Analysis. Economic Analysis and Policy, 43(2), 217–226.
Huang, Y. (2011). Private investment and financial development in a globalized world. Empirical Economics, 41(1), 43-56.
Irandoust, M. (2019). Saving and investment causality: implications for financial integration in transition countries of Eastern Europe. International Economics and Economic Policy, 16(2), 397-416.
Kagochi, J. M., Nasser, O. M. A., & Kebede, E. (2013). Does financial development hold the key to economic growth? The case of Sub-Saharan Africa. The Journal of Developing Areas, 61-79.
Kharusi, S. A., & Ada, M. S. (2018). External debt and economic growth: The case of emerging economy. Journal of economic integration, 33(1), 1141-1157.
Kiprop, I. J. K. S., Kalio, A., & Kibet, L . (2018). The Effect of Regional Integration on Private Investment in East African Community: A Panel Data Approach, International Journal of Development and Economic Sustainability, 6 (4), 51-62,
Lawal, A. I., Babalola, M. B., & Otekunrin, A. O. (2016). External debt and economic growth: Evidence from Nigeria.AUDŒ, 12(6), 179-194.
Lira, P. S., & Kalebe, M. K. (2015). Savings, investment and economic growth in Lesotho: An empirical analysis. Journal of Economics and International Finance, 7(10), 213-221.
Mabula, S., & Mutasa, F. (2019). The effect of public debt on private investment in Tanzania. African Journal of Economic Review, 7(1), 109-135.
Majid, M.S.A. (2008). Does Financial Development Matter for Economic Growth in Malaysia? an Ardl Bound Testing Approach. Journal of Economic Cooperation, 29 (1): 61–82.
Marques, L.M., J.A. Fuinhas, and A.C. Marques. (2013). Does the Stock Market Cause Economic Growth? Portuguese Evidence of Economic Regime Change. Economic Modelling 32: 316–324.
Mavrotas, G., & Kelly, R. (2001). Old wine in new bottles: Testing causality between savings and growth. The Manchester School, 69, 97-105.
Menyah, K., Nazlioglu, S., & Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2014). Financial development, trade openness and economic growth in African countries: New insights from a panel causality approach. Economic Modelling, 37, 386-394.
Meyer, D. F., & Sanusi, K. A. (2019). A causality analysis of the relationships between gross fixed capital formation, economic growth and employment in South Africa. Studia Universitatis Babes-Bolyai Oeconomica, 64(1), 33-44.
Mohsen, A. S. (2015). Effects of trade openness and economic growth on the private sector investment in Syria. Journal of Applied Management and Investments, 4(3), 168-176.
Molapo, S., & Damane, M. (2015). Determinants of private investment in Lesotho. European Scientific Journal, 11(34), 473-491.
Mollah, S., Al Farooque, O., & Karim, W. (2012). Ownership structure, corporate governance and firm performance: Evidence from an African emerging market. Studies in Economics and finance, 29(4), 301-319.
Muyambiri, B. (2020). The Finance-Investment-Growth Causal Connection: Evidence from the Republic of Congo. Dutch Journal of Finance and Management, 4(1), em0061.
Muyambiri, B., & Odhiambo, N. M. (2018). Financial Development and Investment in Botswana: A Multivariate Causality Test. Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, 18(2), 72-89.
Nazlioglu, S., Yalama, A., & Aslan, M. (2009). Financial development and investment: cointegration and causality analysis for the case of Turkey. International Journal of Economic Perspectives, 3(2), 107-119.
Ndikumana, L. (2000). Financial determinants of domestic investment in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from panel data. World development, 28(2), 381-400.
Ndubuisi, P. (2017). Analysis of the impact of external debt on economic growth in an emerging economy: Evidence from Nigeria. African Research Review, 11(4), 156-173.
Owusu, E. L. (2021). The relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth: A multivariate causality approach from Namibia. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 26(2), 2990-2997.
Perron, P. (1997). Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables. Journal of econometrics, 80(2): 355-385.
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. (2001). Bound testing approaches to the analysis of level relationship. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16 (3): 289-326.
Shittu, W. O., Hassan, S., & Nawaz, M. A. (2018). The nexus between external debt, corruption and economic growth: evidence from five SSA countries. African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, 9(3), 319-334.
Sichula, M. (2012). Debt overhang and economic growth in HIPC countries: The case of Southern African development community (SADC). International Journal of Economics and Finance, 4(10), 82-92.
Sindano, A. N., & Kaakunga, E. (2011). The direction of possible causal relationship between financial development and economic growth in Namibia. Journal of Economic and Financial Sciences, 4(2), 351-366.
Singh, T. (2010a). Does domestic saving cause economic growth? A time-series evidence from India. Journal of Policy Modeling, 32(2), 231-253.
Singh, T. (2010b). Does international trade cause economic growth? A survey. The World Economy, 33(11), 1517-1564.
Solow, R. M. (1956). A contribution to the theory of economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70, 65– 94.
Standard Bank. (2022). Botswana: Economic and Political Overview. Standard bank. Viewed on 10 November 2022 on https://www.tradeclub.standardbank.com/portal/en/market-potential/botswana/economical-context
Suhendra, I., & Anwar, C. J. (2014). Determinants of private investment and the effects on economic growth in Indonesia. GSTF Journal on Business Review (GBR), 3(3), 1-6.
Tchamyou VS, Asongu SA (2017) Information sharing and financial sector development in Africa. Journal of African Business, 18(7):24–49
Trading Economics.(2022), Botswana world bank indicators , Trading Economics, viewed 10 October 2022 https://tradingeconomics.com/botswana/indicators-wb-data.html?g=external+debt
Tsaurai, K. (2017). Investigating the relationship between financial development, trade openness and economic growth in Argentina: A multivariate causality framework. Acta Universitatis Danubius. Œconomica, 13(3).
World Bank (2022). World Development Indicators 2022. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi: 10.1596/978-1-4648-0163-1. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO.
World Bank. (2022). Global Development Finance (Washington: World Bank).
Yameogo, C. E. W., & Omojolaibi, J. A. (2021). Trade liberalisation, economic growth and poverty level in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 34(1), 754-774.
Yucel, F. (2009). Causal relationships between financial development, trade openness and economic growth: the case of Turkey. Journal of Social Sciences, 5(1), 33-42.