YÜKÜMLÜLÜK DOLARIZASYONU VE BILANÇO ETKISI: TÜRKIYE ÜZERINE BIR ANALIZ“

1990'li yillarin sonunda yeni gelisen ülkelerde yasanan finansal krizler literatürde önemli görüs degisiklerine neden olmustur. Bu krizlere kadar, literatürde finansal krizlerin sebeplerine makro ekonomik degiskenlere dayali açiklamalar getirilmekteydi. Ancak bu krizlerle birlikte mikro ekonomik degiskenlerin finansal kriz olusumundaki rolleri literatürde tartisma alani bulmustur. Para birimi uyumsuzlugu, ulusal para deger kaybettiginde firma bilançolarinda önemli bir risk unsuru olusturabilmekte ve yatirimlari olumsuz etkileyebilmektedir. Çalismamizda, 1998--2007 dönemi için imalat sanayi sektöründeki yükümlülük dolarizasyonunun bilanço etkisi sonuçlari, dinamik panel veri (DPD) modeliyle arastirilmistir.

Liability Dollarization and Exchange Rate Balance Sheet Effect On Turkey

Financial crises occurring in emerging markets during the late 1990’s caused significantchanges in literature. Financial crises used to be explained in terms of macroeconomicvariables until the late 1990s. Recent studies, however, consider the role of microeconomicvariables in the formation of financial crisis. In the case of real depreciation, currencymismatch that affects the balance sheet of firms negatively may lead decrease ininvestments. In this study, the results of balance sheet effect of liability dollarization inmanufacturing sector for 1998—2007 were investigated by Dynamic Panel Data (DPD) model

___

  • Aghion P., Bacchetta P., and Banerjee A. (2000), “A Simple Model of Monetary Policy and Currency Crises”, European Economic Review, Vol. 44, No:4—6, pp.728—738.
  • Aghion P., Bacchetta P., and Banerjee A. (2001), “Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in an Economy With credit Constraints”, European Economic Review, Vo.45, no.7, pp.1121—1150.
  • Aghion P., Baccetta A., and Banerjee A. (2004), “A Corporate Balance Sheet Approach to Currency Crises”, Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. 119, No: 1, pp. 6-30.
  • Aguiar M. (2005), “Investment, Devaluation, and Foreign Currency Exposure: The Case of Mexico”, Journal of Development Economics, Vol.78, no:1 pp. 95-113.
  • Arellano, M. and Bond S. (1991), “Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations”, Review ofEconomic Studies, 58, 277-297.
  • Bacchetta P. (2000), “Monetary Policy with Foreign Currency Debt”, Swiss National Bank, WP 00,03 pp.1—38.
  • Balino T., Bennett A., and Borensztein E. (1999), “Monetary Policy in Dollarized Economies”, IMF Occasional Papers, No.171.
  • Bergman M. and Hassan S. (2008), “Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in an Economy with Credit Constraints: The No Interest Parity Case”, EPRU Working Paper Series, No.2008-l, pp.1-21.
  • Bernanke B. and Gertler M. (1989), “Agency Costs Net Worth and Business Fluctuations”, American Economic Review, Vol:79, No.1, pp.14- Bernake B., Gertler M., and Gilchrist S. (1999), “The Financial Accelerator in Quantitative Business Cycle Framework”, in Taylor J, Woodford (ed)., Handbook ofMacroeconomics Vol:1, Amsterdam, pp. 1341-1393.
  • Burnside C., Eichenbaum M., and Rebelo S., (2001), “Hedging and Financial Fragility in Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes”, European Economic Review, Vol. 45, No:7, pp. 1151-1193.
  • Bird G. and Rajan R. (1999), “Banks, Financial Liberalization and Financial Crises in Emerging Markets”, CES Discussion Paper, No, 99-16, pp. 1-36.
  • Bleakley H. and Cowan K. (2002), “Corporate Dollar Debt and Depreciations: Much Ado About Nothing?” The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 90, No.4, pp.612-626.
  • Broda C. and Levy-Yeyati E. (2003), “Endogenous Deposit Dollarization”, Federal Reserve Bank ofNew York StaflReports, No.160.
  • Bonomo M., Martins B., and Pinto R. (2003), “Debt Composition and Exchange Rate Balance Sheet Effect in Brasil: Firm Level Analysis”, Emerging Markets Review, Vol:4, No:4, pp. 368-396.
  • Calvo, G. (2005), “Crisis in Emerging Market Economies, Global Perspective”, NBER WP. No. 11305, pp.1-41.
  • Calvo G. and Rodriguez C. A. (1977), “A Model of Exchange Rate determination Under Rational Expectations”, Journal of Political Economy, Vol.85, No.3, pp.617-625.
  • Calvo G. and Vegh C. (1992), “Currency Substitution in Developing Countries: An Introduction”, IMF Working Papers, No: 92/40.
  • Calvo G. and Reinhart C. (1999), “Capital Flow Reversals the Exchange Rate Debate and Dollarization”, Finance Development, Vol,36, No:3, 1999, pp.13-15.
  • Calvo G. and Reinhart C. (2002), “Fear of Floating”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 117, No:2, pp. 379-408.
  • Calvo G. and Mishkin F. (2003), “The Mirage of Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Market Countries”, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol.14, No.4, pp.99-118.
  • Calvo G., lzguierdo A., and Talvi E. (2003), “Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Sustainability Argentina’s Lessons”, NBER WP, No. 9828, pp.1-50.
  • Calvo G., Izguierdo A., and Mejia L. F. (2004) “On the Empirics of Sudden Stops The Relevance of Balance Sheet Effects”, NBER WP, No.10520, pp. 1-51.
  • Calvo G., Izguierdo A., and Mejia L. F. (2008), “Systemic Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance Sheet Effects and Financial Integration”, NBER WP No: 14026, pp.l-47.
  • Carranza L. J., Cayo J. M., and Sanchez-Galdon J. E. (2003) “Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Performance in Peru: Firm Level Analysis”, Emerging Markets Review Vol:4, No.4, pp.472-496.
  • Cowan K. and Do O. T. (2003). “Financial Dollarization and Central Bank Credibility”, World Bank Working Paper No.30-82, pp.1-40.
  • Cowan K. Hansen E., and Herrera O. (2005), “Currency Mismatches Balance Sheet Effects and Hedging in Chilean Non- Financial Corporations”, Central Bank of Chile Working Papers, No:346, pp.1-44.
  • Chamon M. and Hausmann R. (2005),” Why Do Countries Borrow the Way They Borrow?” in Other Peoples Money: Debt Denomination and Financial Stability in Emerging Market Economies,(ed)., Eichengreen B, Hausmann R, Chigago: Chigago Uni Press, pp.218-233.
  • De Nicolo G., Honohan P., and Ize A. (2003), “Dollarization of the Banking System: Good or Bad?”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series No: 3116, pp. 1-52.
  • De la Torre A., Levy-Yeyati E., and Schmukler S. (2003), “Living and Dying with Hard Pegs The Rise and Fall of Argentina’s Currency Board” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No. 2980, pp. 1-60.
  • Domaç, I. and Bahmani—Oskooee M. (2002), “On the Link Between Dolarization and Inflation: Evidence from Turkey”, Centeral Bank of Republic Turkey Discussion Papers, 207, 1-26.
  • Eichengreen B. and Hausmann R. (1999), “Exchange Rates and Financial Fragilitf’, NBER Working Papers, No.7418.
  • Eichengreen B., Hausmann R., and Panizza U. (2003a), “The Mystery of Original Sin http://.www.berkeley.edu./-eicheng Eichengreen B., Hausmann R., and Panizza U. (2003b), “Currency Mismatches, Debt Intolerance and Original Sin: Why They Are Not the Same and Why it Matters”, NBER Working Papers, No. 10036, pp.1-64.
  • Eichengreen B., Hausmann R., and Panizza U. (2005), “The Pain of Original Sin”, in Other Peoples Money: Debt Denomination and Financial Stability in Emerging Market Economies,(ed)., Eichengreen B, Hausmann R, Chigago: Chigago Uni Press, pp. 13-48.
  • Flood, R. P. and Rose A. K. (2001), “Uncovered Interest Parity in Crisis: The Interest Rate Defencein the 19905”, CEPR Discussion Papers, 2943.
  • Frankel J. (2005), “Mundell- Flemming Lecture: Contractionary Currency Crashes in Developing Countries”, IMF StaflPapers, Volz52, No:2, pp. 149
  • Galindo A., Panizza U, Schiantarelli (2003), “Debt Composition and Balance Sheet Effects of Currency Depreciation: Summary of the Micro Evidence”, Emerging Markets Review, Vol.4, No.4, pp.330-3 39.
  • Gertler M. (1992), “Financial Capacity and Output Fluctuations in an Economy with Multi-period Financial Relationships”, Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 59, No.3, pp. 455—472.
  • Gertler M., Gilchrist F., and Natalucci F. (2003), “External Constraints on Monetary Policy and the Financial Accelerator”, NBER Working Papers No. 10128.
  • Gertler M. and Gilchrist S. (1994), “Monetary Policy Business Cycles and the Behaviour of Small Manufacturing Firms”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol:109, N012, pp.309-340.
  • Goldstein M. and Turner P. (2004), Currency Mismatches in Emerging Markets, Peterson Institute.
  • Frankel J. and Rose A. (1997), “Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets”, JournalofInternational Economics, Vol,41, No.3-4, pp. 351-366.
  • Furman J. and Stiglitz J. (1998), “Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2, pp.l-l 14.
  • Hahm J. H. and Mishkin F. S. (2000) “The Korean Financial Crisis: An Asymetric Information Perspective”, Emerging Markets Review, Vol. 1, No.1, pp. 21-52.
  • Hansen, L. P. (1982) “Large Sample Properties of Generalised Method of Moments Estimators”, Econometrica, 50, 1029-1054.
  • Hausmann R., Panizza U., and Stein E. (2001), “Why Do Countries Float the Way They Float?”, Journal of Development Economics, Volz66, No.2, pp. 387-414.
  • Honig A. (2005), “Fear of Floating and Domestic Liability Dollarization”, Emerging Markets Review, Vol: 6,No:3, pp. 289-307.
  • Hubbard G. (1998), “Capital Market Imperfections and Investment”, JournalofEconomic Literature, Vol, 36, No:1 pp.193-225.
  • Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) (2004), Unlocking Credit: The Questfor Deep and Stable Bank Lending, Washington DC. pp.49-66.
  • lze A. and Levy-Yeyati E. (1998), “Dollarization of Financial Intermediation: Causes and Policy Implications”, IMF Working Papers, 98/28.
  • lze A. and Levy-Yeyati E. (2003), “Financial Dollarization”, Journal of International Economics, Volz59, No.2, pp. 323-347.
  • lze A. and Parrado E. (2002), “Dollarization, Monetary Policy and the Pass Through”, IMF Working Papers, No.188
  • Jeanne O. (2003), “Why Do Emerging Market Economies Borrow in Foreign Currency”, IMF Working Papers, 03/177.
  • Kamil H. (2006), “Does Moving to Flexible Exchange Rate Regime Reduce Currency Mismatches in Firms Balance Sheets?”, IMF Working Papers, pp.l-42.
  • Kesriyeli M., Özmen E. ve Yigit S. (2006) “Corporate Sector Debt Composition and Exchange rate Balance Sheet Effect in Turkey”, European Economic Associaton 6] st. European Meeting of Econometric Society, 24-28 August, Viena, pp. 1-27.
  • Krugman P. (1999), “Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem and Financial Crises”, International Tax and Public Finance, Vol:6, No:4, pp. 459-472.
  • Levy-Yeyati E. (2006), “Financial Dollarization”, Economic Policy, Vol.21, No.45, pp.61-118.
  • Magud N. (2004), “Currency Mismatch, Openness and Exchange Rate Regime Choice”, University of Oregon Working Papers, No.2004-09-01.
  • Martinez L. and Werner A. (2002), “The Exchange Rate Regime and the Currency Composition of Corporate Debt: The Mexican Experience”, Journal ofDevelopment Economics, Vol.69, No.2, pp. 315-334.
  • McKinnon R. (2001), “The East Asian Dollar Standart, Life After Death”, Economic Notes, Vol.29, No.1, pp.31-82.
  • Miles M. (1978), “Currency Substitution, Flexible Exchange Rates and Monetary Independence”, American Economic Review, Vol. 68, No.3, pp.428-36.
  • Mishkin F. (1996), Understanding Financial Crises: Developing Country Perspective, http://WWW.columbia. edu. /mishkin.
  • Mizen P. and Pentecost E. (1996), The Macroeconomics of International Currencies: Theory, Policy and Evidence, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. Pbl.
  • Modigliani F. and Miller M. (1958), “The Cost of Capital, Corporation Finance and Theory of Investment”, American Economic Review, Vol:48, No:3, pp. 261-297.
  • Neanidis C. K. and Savva C. S. (2006), “The Effects of Uncertainty on Currency Substitution and Inflation: Evidence from Emerging Economies, University ofManchester Discussion Papers, No:06/09, pp.1-25.
  • Obsfeld M. (1998), “The Global Capital Market: Benefactor or Menace?” Journal ofEconomic Perspectives, Vol.12, No.4, pp. 9-30.
  • Ortiz G. (1983), “Currency Substitution in Mexico, The Dollarization Problem”, Journal of Money Credit and Banking, Vol:15, No:2, pp.174- 185.
  • Radelet S. and Sachs J. (1998), “The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis”, NBER 6680, pp.1-81.
  • Rajan R. (2004), “Dollar Shortages and Crises”, NBER Working Papers, No. 10845, pp.1-44.
  • Reinhart C., Rogoff K., and Savastano M. A. (2003a), “Addicted to Dollars”, NBER WP No. 10015.
  • Reinhart C., Rogoff K., and Savastano M. A. (2003b), “Debt Intolerance”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1, pp.1-74.
  • Rodrik D. and Velasco A. (1999), “Short Term Capital Flows”, NBER Working Papers, No. 7364.
  • Rosenberg C., Halikias 1., House B., Keller C., Nystedt J., Pitt A., and Setser B. (2005), “Debt-Related Vulnerabilities and Financial Crises. An Application of the Balance Sheet Approach to Emerging Market Countries”, IMF Occasional Paper, No. 240.
  • Rojas-Suarez L. (1992), “Currecy Substitution and Inflation in Peru”, IMF Working Papers, No. 92/33.
  • Sahay R. and Vegh C. (1996), “Dollarization in Transition Economies: Evidence and Policy Implications”, in The Macroeconomics of International Currencies: Theory, Policy and Evidence, Edward Elgar Pbl, ed., Mizen P, Pentecost E, pp. 193-223.
  • Sargan, J. D. (1958), “The Estimation of Economic Relationships Using Instrumental Variables”, Econometrica, 26, 393-415.
  • Savastano M., (1996), “Dollarization in Latin America: Recent Evidence and Some Policy Issues”, IMF Working Papers, No. 96/4.
  • Schneider M. and Tornell A. (2000), “Balance Sheet Effects, Bailout Guarantees, and Financial Crises”, NBER Working Papers, No. 8060, pp. 1-31.