Türkiye’de Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi Hipotezinin Ekonomik Büyüme ve Farklı Küreselleşme Türleri Bakımından Analizi

Çevre kirliliği günümüzde araştırmacılar, bilim adamları ve politika yapıcılar tarafından geniş çapta üzerinde en fazla durulan konulardan biri haline gelmiştir. Özellikle CO2 salınımının belirleyicilerini araştırmak bilim adamları için önde gelen ilgi alanlarından biridir. Diğer yandan küreselleşme, ülkelerin ekonomik, politik ve sosyal yönlerden birbirleriyle etkileşime geçmesine neden olur ve kaçınılmaz olarak bu etkileşimden çevre etkilenir. Bu nedenle küreselleşme CO2 emisyonlarının önemli bir belirleyicisidir. Bu çalışma, 1970-2018 döneminde Türkiye’de Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi hipotezinden hareketle farklı küreselleşme türlerinin (ekonomik, sosyal ve politik) çevre kalitesi üzerindeki dinamik etkilerini Vektör Hata Düzeltme Modeli (VECM) ile değerlendirmeyi amaçlamıştır. Türkiye için kişi başı CO2 emisyonu, kişi başı GSYH, ekonomik küreselleşme, sosyal küreselleşme ve politik küreselleşme arasında uzun dönem ilişkinin varlığı Johansen eşbütünleşme testi ile ortaya konmuştur. VECM Granger nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre kısa dönemde ekonomik küreselleşmeden CO2 emisyonuna ve sosyal küreselleşmeden politik küreselleşmeye doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca, uzun dönem tahmincileri bakımından kişi başı GSYH, ekonomik ve sosyal küreselleşmenin kişi başı CO2 emisyonunu pozitif yönde etkilediği, buna karşılık kişi başı GSYH’nın karesi ve politik küreselleşmenin kişi başı CO2 emisyonunu negatif yönde ve anlamlı olarak etkilediği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Bulgular, Türkiye’de politika yapıcıların çevresel kaliteyi iyileştirmesi için iklim değişikliği politikalarını belirlerken ve uygularken farklı küreselleşme türlerini de dikkate almaları gerektiğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi, Küreselleşme, Ekonomik Büyüme, CO2 Emisyonu

Analyzing the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis in Terms of Economic Growth and Different Types of Globalization in Türkiye

Environmental pollution has become one of the issues most widely discussed by researchers, scientists, and policy makers these days. In particular, investigating the determinants of CO2 emissions is one of the leading areas of interest for scientists . Meanwhile, globalization causes countries to interact with each other economically, politically, and socially, and this interaction inevitably affects the environment. Therefore, globalization is an important determinant of CO2 emissions. This study aims to evaluate the dynamic effects different types of globalization (economic, social, and political) have on environmental quality in Türkiye with reference to the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis during the 1970-2018 period using the vector error correction model (VECM). The presence of a long-term relationship among CO2 emissions per capita, GDP per capita, economic globalization, social globalization, and political globalization for Türkiye has been demonstrated using the Johansen cointegration test. According to the results, the VECM Granger causality test has determined a short-term one-way causality nexus from economic globalization to CO2 emissions and from social globalization to political globalization. In terms of long-term estimators, the study has concluded GDP per capita, economic globalization, and social globalization to significantly and positively affect CO2 emissions per capita and the square of GDP per capita and political globalization to negatively affect CO2 emissions per capita at a significant level.

Keywords:

Environmental Kuznets curve, globalization, economic growth, CO2 emissions,

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