Paris Anlaşması’nın Türkiye’de Sektörel Üretim Üzerine Etkileri: Bir Girdi-Çıktı Yaklaşımı

Bu çalışmanın amacı Paris iklim Anlaşması’nın Türkiye’de sektörel üretim üzerine etkilerini analiz etmektir. Anlaşma ile tüm taraflardan, sorumluluk ve imkanları nispetinde, sera gazı salınımlarını azaltmaları beklenmektedir. Bu anlamda, gelişmiş ülkelerden mutlak azaltım yapmaları beklenmektedir. Türkiye Anlaşmayıgelişmekte olan bir ülke olarak onaylamış ve uygulamasına Ulusal Katkı Beyanı çerçevesinde 2022 yılında başlamıştır. Anlaşma’nın uygulaması anlamında üç senaryo çalışılmıştır: referans senaryo(gelişmekte olan ülke gibi), mutlak azaltım senaryosu (gelişmiş ülke gibi) ve çıkış senaryosu (Anlaşma’dan çıkılması). Emisyon ve azaltım miktarları herbir senaryo için ayrı ayrı tahmin edilmiştir. Çalışmada 45 sektör bazında yayımlanmış 2018 verilerine dayalı bir girdi-çıktı modeli kullanılmıştır. Emisyon azaltımının hangi sektörlerde yapılacağına ilişkin 5 politika seçeneği analiz edilmiştir: 2018 emisyon paylarına göre tüm sektörlerde (seçenek 1); emisyon katsayısı ortalamanın üzerinde olan en büyük 9 sektörde (seçenek 2); emisyon çarpanı yüksek olan en büyük 6 sektörde (seçenek 3); emisyon çarpanı ortalamanın üzerinde olan en büyük 11 sektörde (seçenek 4); seçenek 4’deki 11 sektör ve inşaatla birlikte 12 sektörde (seçenek 5). Emisyon azaltımının sektörel üretim üzerindeki olumsuz etkileri, tüm senaryo ve politika seçenekleri için yüksek bulunmuştur. Ancak, referans senaryonun etkisi mutlak azaltım senaryosuna göre daha azdır. Emisyon azaltımının az sayıda sektörde yapıldığı politika seçeneklerinin üretim üzerindeki etkisi, diğerlerine göre daha azdır. Politika seçenekleri toplam maliyetleri anlamında en düşük maliyetliden en yükseğe sıralanacak olursa, sıra 3, 2, 4, 5 ve 1 şeklinde olurdu.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Emisyon azaltımı, Paris Anlaşması, Ekonomik etki analizi, Girdi-çıktı modeli

The Economic Impact of the Paris Agreement on Sectoral Outputs in Türkiye: An Input-Output Approach

This study analyzes the economic impact of the Paris Agreement on sectoral outputs in Türkiye. All member countries are required to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by the Agreement according to their responsibilities and capabilities. In this regard, developed countries are subject to absolute emission reduction. Türkiye ratified the Agreement in 2021 as a developing country and started implementation in 2022 as stated in the Nationally Determined Contributions. Regarding implementation of theAgreement, three scenarios are analyzed: the business-as-usual (as a developing country), the absolute emission reduction (as a developed country), and the exit (exiting the Agreement). Emission pathways and reduction amounts for each scenario are estimatedaccordingly. An input-output model is used based on 2018 tables for 45 sectors. Five policy options are analyzed regarding how to distribute the emission reduction burden among sectors: all sectors according to their shares in 2018 emissions (option 1); the top 9 sectors whose emission coefficients are above average (option 2); the top 6 sectors whose emission multipliers are high (option 3); the top 11 sectors whose emission multipliers are above average (option 4); the top 12 sectors which are the top 11 in option 4 plus the construction sector (option 5). Reducing emissions significantly reduces sectoral output in all scenarios and policy options. However, the impact of the business-as-usual is less than absolute emission reduction. Targeting only a few sectors in emission reduction results in a lower impact. If policy optionsare sorted by their total cost from smallest to largest, the order would be 3, 2, 4, 5, and 1.

Keywords:

Emission reduction, The Paris Agreement, Economic impact analysis, Input-output model,

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