Yabancı Yardımlar ve Mali Tepki Modeli: Türkiye İçin Bir Uygulama

Bu çalışmanın amacı, yabancı yardımların kamu maliyesi değişkenleri üzerindeki etkilerini mali tepki modeli aracılığıyla incelemektir. Yabancı yardımların içsel değişken olduğu varsayımı altında gelir ve harcama kararlarını nasıl etkilediği 1975-2004 dönemini kapsayan zaman serisi verileri ile Türkiye için test edilmiştir. Çalışmadan elde edilen başlıca sonuçlar: (i) kamu gelirlerinin, yabancı yardımların ve borçlanmanın oldukça önemli bir kısmı Türkiye'de kamu tüketim harcamalarının finansmanı için kullanılmaktadır, (ii) yabancı yardımlar, kamu yatırım harcamaları ve borçlanma üzerinde pozitif etki yaratırken, kamu tüketim harcamaları ve kamu gelirleri üzerinde negatif etki yaratmaktadır, (iii) Yabancı yardım taahhütlerindeki değişmeler genel toplamda kamu harcamalarını önemsiz ölçüde arttırırken, kamu gelirlerini hissedilir ölçüde azaltmaktadır.

Foreign Aid and Fiscal Response Model: An Example of Turkey

The central objective of this article is to examine the effects of foreign aid on public fiscal variables via applying the fiscal response model to Turkish data. The model is estimated using time series data spanning from 1975 to 2004. The main findings in this paper: (i) large share of government resources are used to finance consumption expenditure (ii) although the effects of foreign aid on public investment and borrowing are positive, on public expenditure and revenue are nagative. (iii) the overall impact of aid commidment on public consumtion is small and positive while on public revenue is negative.

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