Dinamik Mekan-Zaman Panel Veri Modelleriyle Türkiye'de Bölgesel Enflasyon Yakınsamasının Analizi

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye 'deki farklı coğrafi bölgelerarası enflasyon yakınsaması olgusunu analiz etmektir. Ayrıca, enflasyon yakınsamasının hızını ve bölgelerarası yayılma ya da taşma etkisinin önemini tahmin etmek de amaçlanmaktadır. Çalışmada, ekonometrik yöntem olarak panel bilim kök testleri ve dinamik mekan-zaman panel veri modellerinden yararlanılmıştır. Panel birim kök testleri, kesitsel veya mekansal bağlılığın belirlenmesinde kullanılmıştır. Diğer taraftan, dinamik mekan-zaman panel veri modelleri de hem yakınsama hızı katsayısı hem de taşma etkisi katsayısının tahmin edilmesinde kullanılmaktadır. Elde edilen bulgular, farklı coğrafi bölgeler itibariyle ciddi bir enflasyon yakınsaması olgusunun varlığını ve yakınsama sürecinin oldukça hızlı olduğunu göstermektedir. Taşma ya da yayılma etkisi ise, güçlü olduğu kadar hem cari döneme hem de geçmiş dönemlere bağlı görünmektedir. Sonuç olarak, para otoritelerinin politik karar alma sürecinde enflasyon yakınsaması ve yayılmasından kaynaklanabilecek kırılganlıklara karşı duyarlı ve dikkatli olmaları gerekmektedir.

Regional Inflation Convergence Analysis in Turkey With Dynamic Space-Time Panel Data Models

The aim oftlüs stııdy is to analyse inflation convergence phenomenon across different geographical regions in Tıırkey. Also, another aim is to estimate the speed of inflation convergence and the importance of dispersion or spill-over effect among regions. in this study, panel unit root tests and dynamic space-time panel data models are ıısed as econometrical methods. Panel unit root tests are used to determine the cross-sectional or spatial dependency. On the other hand, dynamic space-time panel data models are used to estimate the coeffıcient of convergence speed and the coeffıcient ofspill-over effect. The empirical fındings point out the existence of a serious inflation convergence phenomenon and ratherfast convergence process among different geographical regions. fVhereas the dispersion or spill-over effect seems robııst and depends on its values of current period and past period. Consegııently, monetary authorities must be sensitive and careful tovvards vulnerabilities arised from inflation convergence and dispersion in political decision making process.

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