Yeni gelişen ülkeler ve orijinal Günah sorunu

Yeni gelişen ülkelerde finansal krizleri borçların parasal bileşimine ve vade yapısına bağlayan bir literatür gelişmiştir. Yeni gelişen ülkelerin ağırlıklı olarak kısa vadeli veya yabancı para cinsinden borçlanmaları, bir yandan borçların para ve vade bileşimini, diğer yandan ulusal ve uluslararası piyasalardan ulusal para birimi cinsinden borçlanamamanın nedenlerini öne çıkarmıştır (Orijinal Günah Sorunu). Kısa vadeli veya yabancı para cinsinden borçlanma yapısına aşırı yönelme, yeni gelişen ülkelerin faiz ve kur değişimlerine olan hassasiyetlerini arttırmaktadır. Dolayısıyla, bu borçlanma yapısı altında yeni gelişen ülkeler finansal krizlere açık hale gelmektedir. Çalışmamızda kamu kesimi iç borç stokunun bileşiminden hareketle borçlanma yapısının Türkiye için bir finansal kırılganlık kaynağı oluşturup oluşturmadığı ortaya konulacaktır.

Emerging markets and original sin problem

There has been a literature emphasizing that financial crises depend on currency composition and maturity structure of debts in emerging countries. The fact that emerging countries get into debt mainly in short term and foreign currency states that they cannot borrow in terms of domestic currency both from national and international markets (Original Sin Problem). Debt structure in terms of short term or foreign currency increases the sensitivity of countries to interest rate and exchange rate changes. Therefore, emerging markets are vulnerable to financial crises with their debt structure. In this study, it will be tried to determine whether debt structure forms fragility source for Turkey in view of public sector domestic debt.

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