Türkiye'de Döviz kuru-enflasyon etkileşiminin para politikası üzerine etkileri

Döviz kurları ile enflasyon arasındaki ilişki, özellikle Türkiye gibi fiyat istikrarını hedefleyen gelişmekte olan ülke ekonomileri açısından son derece önemli bir faktördür. Söz konusu ilişkinin temelinde, döviz kurundaki değişmelerin, dış ticarete konu olan malların ulusal para birimi cinsinden fiyatlarına yansıma derecesini ifade eden "döviz kuru geçiş etkisi" yatmaktadır. Bu noktadan hareketle çalışmanın temel amacı, Türkiye'de döviz kuru - enflasyon etkileşiminin yarattığı geçiş sürecinin para politikası üzerindeki etkilerinin analiz edilmesidir. Bu kapsamda kurulan VAR modelinin yorumlanması için etki-tepki fonksiyonları ve varyans ayrıştırması analizi kullanılmaktadır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre ithalat fiyatlarında meydana gelen bir.şokun üretici fiyatları üzerindeki etkisi tüketici fiyatları üzerindeki etkisinden daha büyük ve nispeten daha hızlı kendisini göstermektedir. Ayrıca, gerçekleştirilen varyans ayrıştırması analizi neticesinde, ithalat fiyatlarının hem üretici hem de tüketici fiyatlarının varyans-larındaki değişimleri açıklama gücünün, döviz kurunun söz konusu değişkenleri açıklama gücünden daha fazla olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Yine, döviz kuru değişkeninin üretici fiyatlarının varyansındaki değişimi açıklama gücü, tüketici fiyatlarının varyansındaki değişimi açıklama gücünden daha fazladır.

The effects of exchange rate-inflation interaction on the monetary policy: The case of Turkey

The relationship between exchange rates and inflation, especially for the economies of developing countries targeting price stability, such as Turkey, is an extremely important issue. "Exchange rate transition effect" lies at the bottom of this relationship, which means the degree of reflection of exchange rate changes on the domestic prices of tradable goods. In light of this, the aim of this study is to analyze the effects of the transition process created by exchange rate-inflation interaction on the monetary policy in Turkey. To this end, impulse-response functions and variance decomposition analysis are used for the interpretation of the VAR model. The main findings indicate that a shock in the prices of imports has a relatively larger impact on producer prices than consumer prices, and appears more quickly. Variance decomposition analysis also shows that the explanatory power of import prices' is higher than the explanatory power of the exchange rate for both producer and consumer prices variances. In addition, the explanatory power of the exchange rate variable is bigger for producer prices than consumer prices.

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