Türkiye’de Dışa Yabancı Doğrudan Yatırımlar ve İhracat İlişkisi
Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de dışa yabancı doğrudan yatırımların ülke ihracatına etkisini 1992:Q1-2016:Q1 dönemi için incelemektir. Kapetanios (2005) çoklu yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testiyle serilerin durağanlığı analiz edilmiştir. Analiz sonucuna göre; seriler düzey değerlerinde durağan değildir. Eşbütünleşme ilişkisi Maki (2012) çoklu yapısal kırılmalı eşbütünleşme testi ve Bayer-Hanck (2013) eşbütünleşme testi ile analiz edilmiş, seriler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi olduğu görülmüştür. Frekans bölgesi nedensellik testi sonucuna göre; dışa yabancı doğrudan yatırımlardan ihracata doğru orta dönemde güçlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi vardır. Seriler arasındaki uzun ve kısa dönem analizi ise, dinamik en küçük kareler yöntemiyle ele alınmıştır. Uzun dönem analizinde, dışa yabancı doğrudan yatırımlardaki %10’luk artış ihracatı %6.5 arttırırken, reel efektif döviz kurundaki %10’luk artış ihracatı %14.9 oranında azalttığı tespit edilmiştir.
Outward Foreign Direct Investments and Export Relationship in Turkey
The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of country’s exports on the frame of outward foreign direct investments of Turkey for 1992:Q1-2016:Q1. Kapetanios (2005) unit root test with multiple structural breaks was analyzed stationarity of the series. According to the results; series are not stationary at level. Cointegration relationship has been analyzed by Maki (2012) cointegration test with multiple structural breaks and Bayer-Hanck (2013) cointegration test and series were found to be cointegrated. According to the results, frequency domain causality test, there is causality in the medium run from outward foreign direct investments to export. On the other hand long and short term relationships among series were discussed by dynamic ordinary least square method. In the long run analysis, we have determined that %10 increase in outward foreign direct investments leads to an export increase of %6.5 while the %10 increase in the real effective exchange rate leads to an export decrease of %14.9.
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