Selver Seda ADA, ÖMÜR SÜER BAKLACI, Mehmet BOLAK

Politik seçimler, referandumlar ve hisse senedi getirileri: İmkb örneği

Ekonomik ve politik gelişmelere ilişkin beklentiler, hisse senedi piyasalarını doğrudan etkiler. Finans literatüründe, politik seçimler ve hisse senedi fiyatları arasındaki ilişkiyi inceleyen pek çok çalışma bulunmaktadır. Farklı borsalar üzerine gerçekleştirilen çalışmalarda, seçim tarihleri etrafında anormal getirilerin varlığı ortaya konmuştur. Bu çalışmada, 1988-2011 döneminde, Türkiyede yapılan politik seçimler ve referandumlar ile hisse senedi piyasaları arasındaki ilişki incelenmektedir. Olay çalışması yöntemi kullanılan çalışmada, İMKBnin kuruluşundan bu yana gerçekleşen politik seçimlerin 15 gün öncesini ve sonrasını içeren dönemlerde, İMKB 100 endeksinde anormal getiriler elde edildiği bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Anormal birikimli ortalama getiriler incelendiğinde, özellikle seçimlerden sonra, beklenen getirilerden istatistikî olarak anlamlı düzeyde farklılıklar olduğu görülmektedir.

Political elections, referendums and stock returns: The case of İse

Expectations regarding economic and political developments directly affect equity markets. In finance literature, many researchers have investigated the relationship between political elections and stock prices. Most of these researches findings reveal abnormal returns around election dates. This study aims to explain the relationship between stock market prices and political elections and referendums in Turkey, for the period 1988-2011. In this study, where the event study methodology is used, the findings show that statistically significant abnormal returns have occurred in ISE 100 indice before and after 15 days of the elections and referendums. When the average abnormal returns are analyzed, it can be observed that the abnormal returns occur mostly after the elections.

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