KAMU BORCU-EKONOMĠK BÜYÜME ĠLĠġKĠSĠ: GELĠġMEKTE OLAN ÜLKELER ĠÇĠN AMPĠRĠK BĠR ANALĠZ

Literatürde yer alan çalıĢmalarda, kamu borcunun ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisine iliĢkin fikir birliği bulunmazken, geliĢmekte olan ülkeler üzerine yapılan çalıĢmaların büyük bir çoğunluğunda dıĢ borcun etkileri üzerine odaklanılmıĢtır. Ancak, son yıllarda geliĢmekte olan ülkelerin borç yapısında, iç borçlanma oranı önemli ölçüde artıĢ göstermiĢtir. Bu çerçevede, literatürdeki diğer çalıĢmalardan farklı olarak bu çalıĢmada, geliĢmekte olan ülkelerde toplam kamu borcunun ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisinin araĢtırılması amaçlanmıĢtır. ÇalıĢmada, 15 geliĢmekte olan ülkenin 2001-2018 yılları arasındaki verileri kullanılarak kamu borcu ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki uzun dönemli iliĢki araĢtırılmıĢtır. ÇalıĢmadan elde edilen sonuçlara göre, geliĢmekte olan ülkelerde kamu borcu ile ekonomik büyüme arasında uzun dönemde pozitif yönlü bir iliĢki bulunmaktadır. Ayrıca söz konusu pozitif yönlü iliĢki kontrol değiĢkenleri eklendikten sonra da anlamlılığını sürdürmektedir.

PUBLIC DEBT-ECONOMIC GROWTH RELATIONSHIP: AN EMPRICAL ANALYSIS FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

While there is no consensus on the impact of public debt on economic growth, most of the studies on developing countries have focused on the effects of external debt. However, the share of domestic debt in the debt structure of developing countries has increased significantly in recent years. As a result, unlike other studies in the literature, this study aimed to investigate the effect of total public debt on economic growth. We employed the FMOLS (Fully Modified Ordinary Least, Squares) estimator to estimate the long-run relationship between public debt ve economic growth using data from 15 developing countries between the period of 2001-2018. The results show that there is a positive long-run relationship between public debt ve economic growth. Furthermore, the main results remained robust after adding control variables.

PDF

___

Abbas, Ali S. M. and Jakop E. Christensen; (2007), The role of domestic debt markets in economic growth: An empirical investigation for low-income countries ve emerging markets, IMF Working Papers 07/127, https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/31/The-Role-of-DomesticDebt-Markets-in-Economic-Growth-An-Empirical-Investigation-for-Low-20973, 05.05.2020.
Agénor, Pierre-Richard and Peter J. Montiel; (2015), Development Macroeconomics, Princeton University Press, New Jersey.
Afonso, Antonio and Joao T. Jalles; (2011), Economic performance ve government size, ECB Working Paper 1399, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1399.pdf, 10.05.2020.
Aizenman, Joshua, Kletzer Kenneth and Brian Pinto; (2007), Economic Growth with Constraints on Tax Revenues ve Public Debt: Implications for Fiscal Policy ve CrossCountry Differences, NBER Working Paper 12750, https://www.nber.org/papers/w12750, 05.05.2020.
Baltagi, Badi and Chihwa Kao; (2000), “Nonstationary Panels, Cointegration in Panels and Dynamic Panels: A Survey”, Badi. Baltagi (Ed.), Advances in econometrics: Nonstationary panels, panel cointegration and dynamic panels, New York, Elsevier, pp.7-51.
Barro, Robert J.; (1974), “Are government bonds net wealth?”, Journal of Political Economy, 82(November), pp.1095–1117.
Barro, Robert J.; (1979), “On the Determination of Public Debt”, Journal of Political Economy, 87(5), pp.940-971.
Baum, Anja, Checherita-Westphal, Christina, and Philipp Rother; (2012), Debt ve growth: New evidence for the Euro Area, ECB Working Paper 1450, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1450.pdf, 05.05.2020
Breitung, Jörg; (2000), The local power of some unit root tests for panel data. Badi. Baltagi (Ed.), Advances in Econometrics: Non-stationary panels, panel cointegration, and dynamic panels, New York, Elsevier, pp.161-177.
Calderón, Cesar and J. Rodrigo Fuentes; (2013), Government debt ve economic growth, IDB Working Paper Series 424, https://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/Government-Debt-andEconomic-Growth.pdf, 05.06.2020.
Checherita-Westphal, Christina and Rother, Philipp; (2012), “The impact of high government debt on economic growth ve its channels: An empirical investigation for the euroarea”, European Economic Review, 56, pp.1392–1405.
Caner, Mehmet Grennes, Thomas and Koehler-Geib, Fritzi; (2010), Finding the tipping point: When sovereign debt turns bad, Policy Research Working Paper Series 5391, https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/ 509771468337915456/finding-the-tipping-point-when-sovereign-debt-turns-bad, 05.05.2010.
Chen, Bangtian, McCoskey, Suzanne and Kao, Chihwa; (1999), “Estimation ve inference of a cointegrated regression in panel data: a Monte Carlo Study”, American Journal of Mathematical ve Management Sciences, 19, pp. 75–114.
Clements, Benedict, Bhattacharya, Rina and T. Quoc Nguyen; (2003), External debt, public investment ve growth in low-income countries, IMF Working Paper 03/249, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2003/wp03249.pdf, 05.05.2020.
Cox, Donald, & Jappelli, Tullio; (1990), “Credit rationing ve private transfers: Evidence from survey data”, Review of Economics ve Statistics, 72, pp.445-454.
Delong, Bradford. J. and Lawrance H. Summers; (2012), “Fiscal policy in a depressed economy”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring, pp.233-297.
Egert, Balazs; (2015), “Public debt, economic growth ve nonlinear effects: Myth or reality?”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 43, pp.226–238.
Elmendorf, Douglas W. and Gregory N. Mankiw; (1999), Government debt. J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (Eds.), Handbook of macroeconomics, Amsterdam, North Hollve, Elsevier, pp.1615-1669.
Feldstein, Martin; (1976), “Perceived wealth in bonds ve social security: A comment”, Journal of Political Economy, 84, pp. 331-336.
Gómez-Puig, Marta and Simon Sosvilla-Rivero; (2017), Public debt ve economic growth: Further evidence for the Euro area, Research Institute of Applied Economics Working Paper 2017/15, https://ideas.repec.org/p/ira/wpaper/201715.html, 05.05.2020.
Guex, Guillaume and & Sebastian Guex; (2018), “Debt, economic growth, ve interest rates: an empirical study of the Swiss case, presenting a new long-term dataset:1894–2014”, Swiss Journal of Economics ve Statistics, 154(16), pp.1-13.
Im, Kyung, S., Pesaran, M. Hashem and Yongcheol Shin; (2003), “Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels”, Journal of Econometrics, 115(1), pp. 53-74.
IMF; (2020), Global Debt Database. https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/GDD, 10.06.2020.
Kao, Chihwa; (1999), “Spurious regression ve residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data”, Journal of Econometrics, 90(1), pp.1-44.
Kao, Chihwa and Min-Hisien Chiang, (2000). “On the estimation ve inference of a cointegrated regression in panel data”, Badi Baltagi (Ed.), Advances in econometrics: Nonstationary panels, panel cointegration and dynamic panels, New York, Elsevier, pp.179-222.
Kourtellos, Andros Stengos, Thanasis, Chih, M. Tan; (2013). “The effect of public debt on growth in multiple regimes” Journal of Macroeconomics, 38, pp.35-43.
Kumar, S. Manmohan and Jaejoon Woo; (2010), Public debt ve growth, IMF Working Paper, 2010/174, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2010/wp10174.pdf, 05.05.2020.
Krugman, Paul; (1988), “Financing vs. forgiving a debt overhang”, Journal of Development Economics, 29, pp.253-268.
Levin, Andrew, Lin, Chien-Fu, James, C. S. Chu; (2002), “Unit root tests in panel data: Asymptotic ve finite-sample properties”, Journal of Econometrics, 108(1), pp.1-24.
Maddala, G.S. and Wu, Shaowen; (1999), “A comparative study of unit root tests with panel data and a new simple test”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61(S1), pp.631-652.
Owusu-Nantwi, Victor and Christopher, Erickson; (2016), “Public debt ve economic growth in Ghana”, African Development Review, 28, pp.116-126.
Panizza, Ugo; (2008), Domestic ve external public debt in developing countries, UNCTAD Discussion Papers 188, https://debt-and-finance.unctad.org/Documents/Discussionpapers/Domestic_and_External_Public_Debt_in_Developing_Countries_PANIZZA_20 08.pdf, 05.05.2020.
Panizza, Ugo and, Andrea F. Presbitero; (2013), Public debt ve economic growth in advanced economies: A survey. MoFiR Working Paper 78, http://docs.dises.univpm.it/web/quaderni/pdfmofir/Mofir078.pdf, 05.05.2020.
Pattillo, Catherine, Poirson, Helena and Luna Ricci; (2002), External debt ve growth. IMF Working Paper 02/69, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2002/wp0269.pdf, 05.05.2020.
Pedroni, Peter; (1999), “Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors”, Oxford of Economics and Statistics, 61, pp.653-670.
Pedroni, Peter; (2000), “Fully-modified OLS for heterogeneous cointegrated panels”, Advances in Econometrics, 15, pp. 93-130.
Pedroni, Peter; (2004), “Panel cointegration: asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the PPP hypothesis”, Econometric Theory, 3, pp.579–625.
Phillips, Peter C. B. and Bruce Hansen; (1990), “Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes” Review of Economic Studies, 57, pp.99-125.
Phillips, Peter C. B. and Hyungsik Moon; (1999), “Linear regression limit theory for nonstationary panel data”, Econometrica, 67(5), pp. 1057–1111.
Rahman, Nur H., Shafinar Ismail and Abdul R. Ridzuan; (2019), “How does public debt affect economic growth? A systematic review”, Cogent Business & Management, 6(1), pp. 1-16.
Reinhart, Carmen M. and Kenneth S. Rogoff (2010). Growth in a Time of Debt, NBER Working Paper 15639, https://www.nber.org/papers/w15639, 05.05.2020.
Ricardo, David; (1951), On the principles of political economy ve taxation. Piero Sraffa (Ed.), The works ve correspondence of David Ricardo (Vol. 1). Cambridge, Cambridge University Press (Vol. 1) (Original work published 1817)
Saungweme, Talknice and Nicholas M. Odhiambo; (2018), “The impact of public debt on economic growth: A review of contemporary literature”, The Review of Black Political Economy, 45(4), pp.339–357.
Schclarek, Alfredo; (2004), Debt ve economic growth in developing ve industrial countries, Lund University Department of Economics Working Paper 34, https://project.nek.lu.se/publications/workpap/Papers/WP05_34.pdf, 05.05.2020.
Seater, John J.; (1993), “Ricardian equivalence”, Journal of Economic Literature, 31, pp.142-190.
Seater, John J. and Roberto S. Mariano; (1985); “New tests of the life cycle ve tax discounting hypothesis”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 15, pp.196-215.
Szabo, Zsolt; (2013), “The effect of sovereign debt on economic growth ve economic development”, https://www.asz.hu/storage/files/files/public-finance-quarter articles/ 2013/a_szabo_2013_3.pdf, 05.05.2020.
Uzun, Ahmet, Kabadayi, Burhan and Selçuk, O. Emsen; (2012), “The impacts of external debt on economic growth in transition economies”, Chinese Business Review, 11, pp. 491-499.
World Bank; (2020), World Development Indicators, https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators, 10.06.2020.