ARA KAZANÇ TĠCARETĠNĠN BELĠRLEYENLERĠ: TÜRKĠYE ÜZERĠNE BĠR UYGULAMA

Bu çalıĢmada, Türkiye‟de Ocak 2005-Eylül 2017 döneminde ara kazanç ticareti faaliyetinin belirleyenleri, döviz kuru oynaklığının yüksek ve düĢük olduğu dönemler için doğrusal olmayan tahmin yaklaĢımlarından biri olan TVAR yöntemi ile incelenmiĢtir. ÇalıĢmadan elde edilen bulgulara göre, döviz kuru oynaklığının yüksek olduğu dönemde ara kazanç ticareti faaliyeti büyük oranda küresel risk algısı ve enflasyon oranı farkından; döviz kuru oynaklığının düĢük olduğu dönemde ise, enflasyon oranı farkından etkilendiği sonucuna ulaĢılmıĢtır.

DETERMINANTS OF CARRY TRADE: AN APPLICATION ON TURKEY

In this study, the determinants of carry trade activity in Turkey were examined by TVAR model which is one of the nonlinear estimation approaches for the different periods in which exchange rate volatility is high and low in Janurary 2005-September 2017. From the findings of this study, it was inferred that carry trade activity is affected by global risk perception and inflation rate differential in the period when exchange rate volatility is high and it is affected by inflation rate differential in the period when exchange rate volatility is low.

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