Ekonomik büyüme, beşeri sermaye ve ihracat: Nedensellik analizi, 1928-2006

Bu makale eşbütünleşme ve hata düzeltme modellerini kullanarak, Türkiye’de 1928-2006 döneminde ekonomik büyüme, beşeri sermaye stoku ve ihracat arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini incelemektedir. Reel gelir modele bağımlı değişken olarak girdiğinde, reel gelir, beşeri sermaye ve reel ihracat arasında bir uzun dönem eşbütünleşme ilişkisi söz konusudur. Ancak reel ihracat ve beşeri sermaye bağımlı değişken olduğunda eşbütünleşme ilişkisinden söz edilemez. Uzun dönemde reel ihracat ve beşeri sermaye reel geliri Granger nedensellik ilişkisi anlamında tek yönlü olarak etkilediği halde, değişkenler arasında kısa dönemde herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisine rastlanmadı. Bulgular, Türkiye’de 1928-2006 döneminde hem ihracata dayalı içsel büyüme hem de beşeri sermayeye dayalı içsel büyüme hipotezini desteklemektedir. Uzun dönemde, Türkiye’nin son 79 yıllık büyüme performansı hem ihracattaki genişlemeden hem de beşeri sermaye stokundaki birikimden kaynaklandığı söylenebilir.

Economic growth, human capital and exports: A causality analysis, 1928-2006

This article employs cointegration and error-correction modelling to test the causal relationship between economic growth, human capital stock and exports using data for Turkey over the period 1928-2006. We find that real income, human capital and real exports are cointegrated when real income is the dependent variable, but are not cointegrated when human capital and real exports are the dependent variable. In the long-run we find evidence of uni-directional Granger causality running from human capital and real exports to real income, whereas in the short run we cannot find evidence of causality among the variables. The results support both the export-led endogenous growth hypothesis and human capital-based endogenous growth hypothesis in Turkey during 1928-2006. The results suggest that in the long-run Turkey’s economic performance over the last 79 years was propelled by export expansion and accumulation of human capital stock.

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