Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımları ve Yurtiçi Yatırımlar Arasındaki Eşbütünleşme İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Bu makalenin amacı, doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımları ile yurtiçi yatırımlar arasındaki nedensel ilişkiyi incelemektir. Türkiye verilerine dayalı olarak gerçekleştirilen bu çalışmada 1991:4-2004:4 dönemine ait değişkenler kullanılmıştır. Çalışmanın amacı doğrultusunda zaman serisi analizi yapılmıştır. Bu bağlamda, iki aşamalı Engle-Granger eşbütünleşme yöntemi kullanılmıştır. İlk olarak, ele alınan değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkinin olup olmadığı tespit edilmiş ve daha sonra Granger nedensellik testi yapılmıştır. Yapılan testlerde elde edilen sonuçlara göre, doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımları ve yurtiçi yatırımlar arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin olduğu görülmüştür. Söz konusu ilişkinin yönünün ise, yurtiçi yatırımdan doğrudan yabancı yatırımlara doğru olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

The Cointegration Relationship Between Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) and Domestic Investments (DI) Evidence from Turkey

The aim of this paper is to investigate the long term casual link between foreign direct investments and domestic investments. In this study, based on data about Turkey, variables for the term 1991:4-2004:4 are used. Related with the aim of this study, two stage Engle-Granger cointegration analysis was used in time series analysis context. First, it was determined whether there was a long term relationship between the variables, and then Granger casuality test was applied. Second, the direction of the casual link was decided. Findigns of the study indicated that there was a long term relationship between FDI and domestic investment. However, it was determined that the direction of the casual link was from domestic investment to FDI.

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