TÜRKİYE’DE POLİTİK İSTİKRARIN DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIMLARA ETKİSİ: FOURİER ADL EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME TESTİNDEN KANITLAR

Araştırmacılar için doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişlerini etkileyen faktörlere yoğunlaşmak motive edici bir konu olmaya devam etmektedir. Literatürde politik istikrar düzeyi, yabancı yatırımları çekmeyi amaçlayan ev sahibi ülkeler için önemli bir konum avantajı olarak kabul edilmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de politik istikrar ile doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişleri arasındaki ilişkiyi ampirik olarak test etmek ve bu ilişkiyi destekleyen daha iyi sonuçlar elde etmektir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda 1998Q1-2019Q4 dönemine ait üç aylık veriler kullanılmıştır. Serilerin durağanlık özelliği ADF ve Fourier ADF birim kök testleri kullanılarak sınanmıştır. İlk farklılıkları alındığında tüm değişkenlerin durağan olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Seriler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığı Fourier ADL eşbütünleşme testi ile araştırılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular Türkiye’de politik istikrar ile doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar arasında pozitif bir ilişkinin varlığını ortaya koymaktadır. Ampirik bulgular çerçevesinde Türkiye ekonomisine yönelik politika önerileri sunulmuştur.

THE IMPACT OF POLITICAL STABILITY ON FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN TURKEY: EVIDENCE FROM FOURIER ADL COINTEGRATION TEST

Focusing on the factors which affecting FDI inflows remain as a motivating issue for researchers. In the literature, the political stability level recognized as an important location advantage for host countries that aiming to attract foreign investment. The aim of this study is testing the relationship between political stability and foreign direct investment inflows empirically in Turkey and to obtain better results that support this relationship. For this purpose, quarterly data for the period of 1998Q1-2019Q4 are used. Stationarity of the series is tested using ADF and Fourier ADF unit root tests. All variables are found to be stationary when their initial differences are taken. The existence of the cointegration relationship between the series is investigated with the Fourier ADL cointegration test. The findings reveal a positive relationship between political stability and foreign direct investments in Turkey. Policy recommendations for the Turkish economy are presented within the framework of empirical findings

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