COVID-19 ENFLASYON SEPETİ

Enflasyon, bireylerin satın alma gücündeki değişimi yansıtmaktadır. Pandemi sürecinde talep farklılaşması ve arz kısıtlamaları genel fiyat düzeyini etkilemektedir. Gelişmiş ülkelerde Covid19 salgınının başladığı ilk aylarda deflasyonist baskı ortaya çıkmıştır; ancak Türkiye gibi gelişmekte olan ülkelerde enflasyonda oynaklıklar görülmüştür. Geleneksel enflasyon hesabı, tüketicilerin harcama alışkanlıklarındaki değişimi, hızlıca dikkate alamamakta ve bir önceki yılın harcama ağırlıklarını baz alarak hesaplanmaktadır. Bu nedenle TÜFE’deki değişimler hane halkı talebinin, çeşitli mal ve hizmetlere göre hızlıca değiştiği dönemlerde satın alma gücündeki değişimi yeterince açıklamamaktadır. Bu çalışmada tüketicilerin harcama grupları aylık olarak belirlenerek harcama gruplarının bütçe içerisindeki payı hesaplanmakta ve alternatif bir enflasyon hesabı yapılarak pandeminin enflasyon üzerindeki etkilerinin incelenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Sonuçlar pandeminin ilk dönemlerinde, hesaplanan enflasyon oranlarının geleneksel yöntemle hesaplanan enflasyon oranlarına kıyasla daha yüksek olduğunu göstermektedir; ancak pandemi tedbirlerinin azaldığı süreçte geleneksel tüketim kalıplarının geri dönmeye başlamasıyla iki enflasyon oranının birbirine yaklaşmıştır.

COVID-19 INFLATION BASKET

Inflation reflects the change in the purchasing power of individuals. During the pandemic process, demand differentiation and supply restrictions affect the general price level. In the first months of the Covid-19 epidemic in developed countries, deflationary pressure emerged; however, volatility in inflation has been observed in developing countries such as Turkey. The traditional inflation calculation does not take into account the change in consumers' spending habits quickly and is calculated on the basis of the previous year's expenditure weights. Therefore, changes in CPI do not adequately explain the change in purchasing power during periods when household demand changes rapidly according to various goods and services. In this study, the expenditure groups of consumers are determined on a monthly basis, the share of expenditure groups in the budget is calculated, and it is aimed to examine the effects of the pandemic on inflation by making an alternative inflation calculation. The results show that in the early stages of the pandemic, the calculated inflation rates were higher than the traditionally calculated inflation rates; however, it shows that the two inflation rates approached each other as the traditional consumption patterns started to return in the process of reducing the pandemic measures and adapting to the new normal.

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