DÖVİZ KURU OYNAKLIĞININ İSTİHDAMA ETKİSİ: 2000'Lİ YILLAR TÜRKİYE DENEYİMİ

Türkiye’de 2000'li yılların başında ortaya çıkan şubat 2001 krizi sonrasında esnek kur sistemine geçmiştir. Teoride, esnek döviz kuru sisteminin şokları absorbe etme yanında merkez bankasına parasal politikalarda özgür kalmayı da sağladığı kabul edilmektedir. Bununla birlikte, bilhassa gelişmekte olan ülkelerde son yıllarda döviz kurları ve döviz kuru oynaklığındaki değişimler teorik modellerin öngördüğünden daha büyük seviyede olmuştur. Bu makale, gecikmesi dağıtılmış otoregresif (ARDL) sınır testi metoduna dayalı olarak, döviz kuru değişimlerinin ve oynaklığının Türkiye'deki istihdam düzeyine etkisini, 2004: Q1 -2020: Q1 aralığını kapsayan on altı yıllık dönem için üç aylık verileri kullanarak araştırmaktadır. Döviz kuru oynaklığını ölçmek için AR (1)-TGARCH (1,1) tekniği kullanılmıştır. ARDL sınır testi neticelerine göre döviz kurundaki artışlar istihdam seviyesini pozitif etkilerken, döviz kuru oynaklığı istihdam seviyesini olumsuz etkilemektedir. Ayrıca ihracattaki artış, istihdam düzeyindeki büyümeye olumlu destek sağlamaktadır. Son olarak, faiz oranları istihdam seviyesi ile ters yönlü etkileşim durumundadır. Bu sonuçlar, ekonomik koşullardaki gelişmenin ekonomik karar vericilerin yatırım arzularına olumlu katkı sağladığını ve genişleyen iş hacimlerinin istihdam yapılan birey sayısını artırdığını göstermektedir.

THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON EMPLOYMENT: EXPERIENCE OF TURKEY IN THE 2000s

Resulting the February 2001 crisis, Turkey switched to floating exchange rate system in the early 2000s. In theory, it is accepted that the floating exchange rate system not only absorbs shocks but also provides freedom in monetary policies for the central bank. In recent decades, however, variations in exchange rates and volatility have been larger than that of predicted by theoretical models, especially in the developing countries. Based on autoregressive-distributed lag (ARDL) bound test method, this article investigates the impact of exchange rate changes and volatility on the level of employment in Turkey by using quarterly data for a sixteen-year period covering 2004:Q1-2020:Q1. AR (1)-TGARCH (1,1) technique was used to measure exchange rate volatility. According to ARDL bound test results, while increases in exchange rate positively affects the level of employment, the exchange rate volatility affects it negatively. In addition, rise in exports provides positive support to the growth in employment level. Lastly , there is an inverse relationship between interest rates and employment level. These results indicate that the development in economic circumstances provides positive support to the investment enthusiasm of economic decision makers and that growing business volumes increase the number of employed people.

PDF

___

Akel, V. & Gazel, S., (2014). Döviz Kurları ile BIST Sanayi Endeksi Arasındaki Eşbütünleşme İlişkisi: Bir ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı, Erciyes University Journal of Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, 44, 23-42.
Altıntaş, H. (2013). Türkiye’de Petrol Fiyatları, İhracat ve Reel Döviz Kuru İlişkisi: ARDL Sınır Testi YaklaĢımı ve Dinamik Nedensellik Analizi, International Journal of Management Economics and Business, 9(19), 1-30.
Ayhan, F. (2016). Döviz Kuru Oynaklığı, Dış Ticaret ve İstihdam İlişkisi: Türkiye Uygulaması, PhD Thesis, Konya: Selcuk University.
Belke, A. & Kaas, L.(2002). The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Labor Markets: Europe versus United States, Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 201/2002, Department of Economics, Hohenheim: University of Hohenheim.
Belke, A. & Kaas, L. (2004). Exchange Rate Movements and Employment Growth: An OCA Assessment of the CEE Economies, Empirica, 31(2-3), 247-280.
Burgess, S. & Knetter M. M. (1996). An International Comparison of Employment Adjustment to Exchange Rate Fluctuations,” NBER Working Paper No: 5861, Available at: https://www.nber.org/papers/w5861.pdf, (Accessed 24 July 2019).
Calvo, G. A & Reinhart, C. M. (2000). Fear of Floating, NBER Working Paper No: 7993, Available at: https://www.nber.org/papers/w7993.pdf, (Accessed 24 August 2019).
Chang, S-C. (2011). The Interrelationship between Exchange-Rate Uncertainty and Unemployment for South Korea and Taiwan: Evidence from a Vector Autoregressive Approach, International Economics, 125, 65-82.
Demir, F. (2010). Exchange Rate Volatility and Employment Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from Turkey, MPRA Paper No. 24477, Available at: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/24477/1/MPRA_paper_24477.pdf, (Accessed in 21 July 2019).
Dhasmana, A. (2015). Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Employment: Role of External Sector Exposure, IIM Bangalore Working Paper No. 479, Available at: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2562387, (Accessed 22 July 2019).
Dritsakis, N. (2011). Demand for Money in Hungary: An ARDL Approach, Review of Economics & Finance, 1, 01-16.
Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation, Econometrica, 50(4), 987-1007.
Fatukasi, B., Olorunleke, G. K., Olajide, G. F. & Alimi, R. S. (2015). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Macroeconomic Relationships in Nigeria, European Journal of Business and Management, 7(8), 26-34.
Hodge, D. (2005). The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade and Employment: A Brief Review of The Literature, Employment Growth & Development Initiative Human Sciences Research Council, Available at: http://www.hsrc.ac.za/en/research- data/ktree-doc/1308, (Accessed 14 July 2019).
Işık, N., Acar, M. & IĢık, B. (2004). Enflasyon ve Döviz Kuru ĠliĢkisi: Bir Eşbütünleşme Analizi, Süleyman Demirel University IIBF Journal, 9(2), 325-340.
Kavaz, I. & Özbuğday F. C. (2016). Enerjide DıĢa Bağımlılık ve Enerji Verimliliği Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği, Journal of Academic Social Research, 27, 331-349.
Mensah, M., Awunyo-Vitor D., & Asare-Menako, H. (2013). Exchange Rate Volatility and Employment Growth in Ghana’s Manufacturing Sector, International Journal of Business and Social Science, 4(4), 225-232.
Mpofu, T. R. & Nikolaidou, E. (2018). Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Employment Growth in South Africa: The Case of Manufacturing, ERSA working paper 737, Available at: https://www.econrsa.org/system/files/publications/working_papers/working_paper_73 7.pdf, (Accessed 21 May 2019).
Mpofu, T. R. (2015). Exchange Rate Volatility, Employment and Macroeconomic Dynamics in South Africa, PhD Thesis, Cape Town: University of Cape Town.
Nyahokwe, O & Ncwadi, R. (2013). Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Unemployment in South Africa,” Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 4(3), pp. 109-120.
OECD (2020). Database, Available at: https://stats.oecd.org/, (Accessed 26 August 2020).
Onoja, A. O., Achike, A. I. & Ajibade, T. (2017). Econometric Analysis of Short-Run and Long-Run Determinants of Agricultural Value Addition in Africa, Agrosearch, 17(1), 26-43.
Öztürk, K. (2010). Döviz Kuru Oynaklığı ve Döviz Kuru Oynaklığının Faiz Oranı Oynaklığı ile Olan ĠliĢkisi: Türkiye Örneği, Specialization Qualification Thesis, Ankara: The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bound Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationship, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289-326.
Salatin, P. & Hami, M. (2015). The Relationship between the Exchange Rate and Employment in Iran, International Research Journal of Applied and Basic Sciences, 9(7), 1194-1203.
Şimşek, M. & Kadılar, C. (2004). Türkiye’nin İthalat Talebi Fonksiyonunun Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı ile Eşbütünleme Analizi: 1970-2002”, Journal of Doğuş University, 5(1), 27-34.
Stirbock, C. & Buscher H. S. (2000). Exchange Rate Volatility Effects on Labour Markets, Intereconomics, 35 (1), 9-22.
Süslü, B & Bekmez, S. (2010). Türkiye’de Zaman Tutarsızlığının ARDL Yöntemi ile İncelenmesi”, Journal of BRSA Banking and Financial Markets, 4(2), 85-110.
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, (2020). Electronic Data Distribution System, Available at: https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/, (Accessed 26 August 2020).
Turkish Ministry of Treasury and Finance (2020). Economic Indicators, Available at: https://www.hazine.gov.tr/ekonomik-gostergeler (26 August 2020).
Yokoyama, I., Higa, K. & Kawaguchi, D. (2015). The Effect of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Employment in a Segmented Labor Market, RIETI Discussion Paper Series 15-E- 139, Available at: https://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/dp/15e139.pdf, (Accessed 26 July 2019).
Yoloğlu, Z. (2020). Volatility Spillover between Stock Relationship with Exchange Rate and Interest Rate: An Application with Multivariate Garch Models, Master Thesis, Mersin: Çağ University.