BEŞERİ SERMAYE VE CARİ İŞLEMLER DENGESİ UZUN DÖNEMLİ İLİŞKİSİ

Bu çalışmada beşeri sermaye ile cari işlemler dengesi arasında uzun dönemli ilişkinin varlığı araştırılmıştır. Panel veri analizi 88 gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülke için 1990 ve 2018 yılları için uygulanmıştır. Uzun dönemli ilişkiyi araştırmak için panel eşbütünleşme analizi kullanılmıştır. Beşeri sermaye iki ayrı indeksle temsil edilmiştir. Birincisi Sağlık Ölçüm ve Değerlendirme Enstitüsü’nün beşeri sermaye indeksidir. İkincisi, Birleşmiş Milletler’in insani gelişim indeksidir. İki indeks için de, yüksek gelirli ülkeler grubunda beşeri sermaye ile cari işlemler dengesi arasında pozitif, anlamlı ve uzun dönemli bir ilişki olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Sanayileşmiş ülkeler hariç tüm ülkeler, Afrika ve sanayileşmiş ülkeler hariç tüm ülkeler ve tüm ülkeler grubu için ise negatif, anlamlı ve uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

THE LONG-RUN RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HUMAN CAPITAL AND CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCES

This study aims to find out the long-run relationship between human capital and the current account balances. The panel data analysis is carried out for the time period between 1990 and 2018. 88 developing and developed countries are included in the study. Panel cointegration analysis is applied to test the long-run relationships. The human capital is represented by two indexes. First one is The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) human capital index. Second one is United Nations human development index. For both indexes, there are significant and positive long-run relationships between the human capital indexes and current account balances for high income countries. It is determined that there is a negative, significant and long-term relationship for "all countries except industrialized countries", "all countries except Africa and industrialized countries" and "all countries" groups.

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