Oktay Orçun BEKEN, Mehmet DURKAYA, Servet CEYLAN

Kamu borçlanması kamu yatırımlarını dışlıyor mu?

Gelismekte olan ekonomilerde kamu yatirimlarinin finansmani için kamu gelirleri çogu zaman yetersiz kalmaktadir. Bu nedenle, kamu yatirimlarinin finansmaninda vergi gelirlerine ilave olarak borçlanma seçenegi kullanilmaktadir. Oysa borç stokunun artmasi esik degerden sonra kamu yatirimlarini azaltmaktadir. Özellikle yüksek borç stokunun bulundugu gelismekte olan ekonomilerde, kaynaklar genellikle borç ana para ve faiz ödemelerine aktarilmaktadir. Kuskusuz bu durum, kamu yatirimlari gibi esnek harcama kalemlerinin dislanmasi sonucunu dogurmaktadir. Çalismada, Türkiye ekonomisi için faiz ödemeleri ile kamu yatirimlari arasindaki kisa ve uzun dönem iliskiler incelenmistir. 1980-2008 dönemi yillik zaman serilerini içeren analizde, uzun dönem iliskileri incelemek için Engle-Granger ve Johansen ko-entegrasyon testi, kisa dönem iliskiler için hata düzeltme modeli kullanilmistir. Bulgular, faiz ödemelerinden kamu yatirimlarina dogru tekyönlü nedensel bir iliskinin oldugunu ortaya koymustur. Ayrica çalismada, bu iki degisken arasinda negatif bir iliski oldugu için faiz ödemelerinin kamu yatirimlarini disladigi tespit edilmistir.

Does the public indedtment crowd out the public investment?

Public revenifes have mostly remained inadequate for the financing of public investments in developing economies. Therefo re, in addition to the use of tax revenues, the choice of getting into debt has also been considered to meet public investments. However, alter threshold level, the expansion ofdebt stock decreases public investments. Revenues are used for debt, principal, and interest payments particularly in developing economies which experience excessive debt stock. This is definitely certain to led to the exclusion of elastic expenditure-component like public investments. The study deals with long and short-term relationships between public investment expenditures and debt interest payments. In the analysis in which are included annual time series data for the period of 1980-2008, Engle -Grangel' and Johansen co-integration test were employed for the determination of the long-term relationship and error correction model was usedfor the establishment of the short-term relationship. The results obtained show the existence of a bi-directional causality from interest payments to public investments. It was also found that interest payments crowded out public investments due to the existence of a negative relationship between the two variables.

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ISSN: 1300-1868
Yayın Aralığı: 3
Yayıncı: Ekonomik Yaklaşım Derneği