An indicator of monetary conditions for Turkey

Bu çalismada Türkiye için 2003-2008 dönemi verileri ve vektör otoregresyon (VAR) yaklasimi kullanilarak bir parasal kosullar endeksi gelistirilmektedir. Endeksin agirliklari, enflasyon oraninin kisa dönemli reel faiz ve Türk Lirasinin reel deger kazanma oraninda gerçeklesen bir standart sapmalik soklara verdigi genellestirilmis birikimli tepkiler esas alinarak olusturulmustur. Üretim ve enflasyonun faiz ve döviz kuruna gelen soklara verdigi tepki Türkiye ekonomisinin ilginç yapisal özelliklerini ortaya koymaktadir. Olusturulan endeksin yansittigi parasal kosullar enflasyonun sözü edilen dönemdeki hareketi ve açiklanan para politikasiyla tutarlidir.

Türkiye için bir parasal koşullar göstergesi

In this study, a Monetary Conditions Index (MCI) for Turkey is constructed for the 2003-2008 period, using a VAR methodology. The MCI weights are estimated on the basis of generalized accumulated responses of the inflation rate to one standard deviatian shock to the real sh ort term interest rate and the real rate of appreciation. The responses of output and inflation to interest rate and exchange rate shocks exhibit patterns which point to the structural peculiarities of the Turkish economy. The monetary conditions reflected by the resulting index are consistent with the path of inflation and CBT remarks on the issue.

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